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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

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12Z ECMWF has a clipper diving southeastward over Ohio while a low pressure starts to develop over North Carolina.

By hour 224 the southern low takes over and exits the coast from SE Virginia and then tracks to the south of the eastern tip of Long Island and then to Maine. As the column gets colder, a snow storm starts for the interior Northeast from NY state to VT and NH.

Much better run now.

Would just need to deepen faster for the colder air to come down faster.

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The 12Z ECMWF is so different from the GFS and FV3 runs that it´s like the are predicting the atmosphere for alternate parallel worlds...

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good stuff...you can really see the difference between GFS & Euro completely go divergent at hr144 of their 12z runs. Euro shows an explosion (bombogenesis) when the cutoff and s/w on the 18th phase. GFS, not quite as explosive. Euro has been known to overamp...just saying...

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00Z ECMWF: Loop Dec 20th through Dec 22nd 8 am - 

Webp.net-gifmaker.thumb.gif.058d48fe7b3c31f0faf5b8628538d6ae.gif1445404563_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).thumb.gif.54a0724d064f882c960e1791fb5627c3.gif

 

Beautiful trough and evolution... Just needed to be farther east before the start of the negative tilt.

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