Euro looks weird. The energy enters around SF on day 5
Then does its usual thing and moves down to TX by hr 156
But, it splits at hr 174, with one piece heading SW into Mexico and the other is weak. Meanwhile a system is diving out of Canada
The system that entered the US at San Francisco latitude, or whats left of it, heads into the lakes with no surface reflection and the energy in the northern stream fully takes over.
But as others have mentioned, the real problem is no cold air. HP is over the central Atlantic, not Newfoundland or Quebec. Plus there's no high behind the storm to feed in cold on the backside of the trough, instead another LP.
But just to show how trustworthy the Euro is.. here's the 0z image for 192 - and the next frame has no Central Atl high either, but a low.
Going to see some pretty impressive western ridge upslope snows with this, the trajectory and the cold air flow looks to be a perfect setup. Should be some decent LES too. How fast and how much cold air gets in there is the question.
Our developing system has a ton of steam energy to work with out of the Gulf, shame no arctic air in place. Florida looking to get maybe the worst of this storm as far as a severe weather event and the Eastern seaboard looking at a sloshing.