Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Staff Recommended Posts

Gfs showing some big hits for this timeframe and up to Xmas 

0DD903A8-8318-4CC9-A264-53F7E7EE58F8.png

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z FV3 GFS:

Close to something more appealing.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh228-270.gif.0c8c751e977db3fcdfcf1d51fcd8f64b.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF:

This last frame looks pretty interesting. It has some potential.

132589925_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined240.thumb.png.76d5b5ee6a12449b3492f43a89de7a4f.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.508ced58546d1abe51c8991a4e7b1356.png\

Nowhere to post this, GFS showing some coastal development from a clipper, may surprise some people in the coming days...image.png.4270e38d088c8a1c9c616e2a1d4b88bc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This time frame, or a bit before ut, may become a stand alone clipper. Albeit, a stronger clipper (redevelopment) one.

Need to wait a couple of more days to have a better picture. Especially with the ECMWF getting in range for better cobfirmation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z EPS contro MSLP l does try to develop a robust clipper.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.8f89abaf512050df38caa539b59578c5.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

image.png.508ced58546d1abe51c8991a4e7b1356.png\

Nowhere to post this, GFS showing some coastal development from a clipper, may surprise some people in the coming days...image.png.4270e38d088c8a1c9c616e2a1d4b88bc.png

Always loved these sneaky type events. Can sometimes be better producers than a actual tracked storm. Watching it closely. Got some time yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will take anything for a chance of snow

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Times look exciting ahead as we approach Xmas!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let´s see how the 12Z suite will behave.

Today the ECMWF should show a more complete picture of this time frame, and we may get a better picture, even though the supposed event would still be about 7 to 9 days out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What an interesting evolution on 12z GFS...has the cutoff for this weekend's storm just lingering and ends up seemingly partially caught up (at least maybe some moisture) with this potent trough diving out of Canada and eventually cutting off itself....fun times potentially ahead. Don't think you could ask for a better configuration given what's happening upstream...

Screen Shot 2018-12-12 at 11.19.13 AM.png

Edited by telejunkie
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z 24 hr  snow

gfs_asnow24_neus_20.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

What an interesting evolution on 12z GFS...has the cutoff for this weekend's storm just lingering and ends up seemingly partially caught up (at least maybe some moisture) with this potent trough diving out of Canada and eventually cutting off itself....fun times potentially ahead. Don't think you could ask for a better configuration given what's happening upstream...

Screen Shot 2018-12-12 at 11.19.13 AM.png

It is indeed interesting. @StretchCTand @telejunkie

However, I have been torn about this one.

This one comes almost 2 full days before the time range of this thread, which for while had a diving clipper and a southern stream energy tracking to the east coast with potential for marriage. Now, the models have backed off from that idea and there´s not much going on from the 19 through the 21 of December.

Another thing is that the ECMWF does not show anything even close to what the GFS is showing for the 17th of December. The storm tracks to the south of Long Island with no impact to the region and it is not caught by the clipper and trough digging from SE Canada. So, without any interaction between the two on the ECMWF, the 17 and 18 of December is dry. 

As for the 19-21 time frame, the ECMWF has another clipper which seems to want to allow for a redevelopment farther south around NJ, but so far its been messy on the latest run.

Need to see how the ECMWF will evolve to see if it approves the GFS depiction or if it will confirm there would be no storm for the 17-18 December, and then see if the ECMWF will continue to give support for a clipper transfer to the Mid Atlantic coast for the 19-21 time frame, and consequently if the GFS evolve towards that outcome.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

What an interesting evolution on 12z GFS...has the cutoff for this weekend's storm just lingering and ends up seemingly partially caught up (at least maybe some moisture) with this potent trough diving out of Canada and eventually cutting off itself....fun times potentially ahead. Don't think you could ask for a better configuration given what's happening upstream...

Screen Shot 2018-12-12 at 11.19.13 AM.png

That really is interesting. Looks like it's trying to phase almost. PNA looks nice in this frame also

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

It is indeed interesting. @StretchCTand @telejunkie

However, I have been torn about this one.

This one comes almost 2 full days before the time range of this thread, which for while had a diving clipper and a southern stream energy tracking to the east coast with potential for marriage. Now, the models have backed off from that idea and there´s not much going on from the 19 through the 21 of December.

Another thing is that the ECMWF does not show anything even close to what the GFS is showing for the 17th of December. The storm tracks to the south of Long Island with no impact to the region and it is not caught by the clipper and trough digging from SE Canada. So, without any interaction between the two on the ECMWF, the 17 and 18 of December is dry. 

As for the 19-21 time frame, the ECMWF has another clipper which seems to want to allow for a redevelopment farther south around NJ, but so far its been messy on the latest run.

Need to see how the ECMWF will evolve to see if it approves the GFS depiction or if it will confirm there would be no storm for the 17-18 December, and then see if the ECMWF will continue to give support for a clipper transfer to the Mid Atlantic coast for the 19-21 time frame, and consequently if the GFS evolve towards that outcome.

gonna be a tricky one to sort out...CMC maybe getting into the egg nog early...it's liking both time frames in a way, although the first one is definitely less exciting that GFS and the second one isn't all that impressive at the surface either until too late...but h5 looks sure looks nice. Will hold off for now, but definitely may need it's own thread for the 18th...see what papa smurf and the professor have to say about the north american models' handling...

18th

2046410144_ScreenShot2018-12-12at12_07_46PM.png.bd0d0103ad7451b6ba1ba181bee7ce28.png

21st

1880485338_ScreenShot2018-12-12at12_08_05PM.png.e5b32790bdd367cd630de26b85ba582b.png

Edited by telejunkie
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

gonna be a tricky one to sort out...CMC maybe getting into the egg nog early...it's liking both time frames in a way, although the first one is definitely less exciting that GFS and the second one isn't all that impressive at the surface either until too late...but h5 looks sure looks nice

18th

2046410144_ScreenShot2018-12-12at12_07_46PM.png.bd0d0103ad7451b6ba1ba181bee7ce28.png

21st

1880485338_ScreenShot2018-12-12at12_08_05PM.png.e5b32790bdd367cd630de26b85ba582b.png

Both have interesting aspects.

Perhaps in a couple of days things will be clearer.

Let´s see if the 12Z FV3 GFS will be closer to the GFS or to the ECMWF.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z UKMET has cut off low pretty far to the south of Long Island, offshore east of Delmarva, and then as the clipper trough to the north digs into SE Canada and northern NE US, that cut off starts to track to the north close to Long Island and starts deepening pretty well as it tracks NE to the ESE of Cape Cod and then phases with the clipper energy near down east Maine.

But all that happens between the 17th and 18th of December.

The 19th - 21st, is still no in range for the UKMET I have access to.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(my interpretation here)

FV3 on the other hand moves the weekend's cutoff along by the 17th-18th and that incoming s/w from canada has to start "building from the ground up" so to say without any help from the cutoff.

Meanwhile the FV3 then cuts off a lot of the energy for the storm on the 21st after it comes ashore from the Pacific and creates a mini-Omega looking ridge across the central CONUS. So the storm on the 21st is meager at best as most of its energy was left in the cutoff.

Then comes the x-mas day storm energy in from the Pacific...does it merge with cutoff energy? And FV3 stalls out on TT at hour 240....:classic_dry:

Lotta moving parts here...pretty fun jigsaw with lot of things that could go right or wrong...

Edited by telejunkie
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the main take aways to me in this upcoming timeframe:

1) cold air will become available again, and

2) the sub-tropical jet will be active.

Just a matter of if, when, and where the two connect...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×