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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

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12Z ECMWF has a clipper diving southeastward over Ohio while a low pressure starts to develop over North Carolina.

By hour 224 the southern low takes over and exits the coast from SE Virginia and then tracks to the south of the eastern tip of Long Island and then to Maine. As the column gets colder, a snow storm starts for the interior Northeast from NY state to VT and NH.

Much better run now.

Would just need to deepen faster for the colder air to come down faster.

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The 12Z ECMWF is so different from the GFS and FV3 runs that it´s like the are predicting the atmosphere for alternate parallel worlds...

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good stuff...you can really see the difference between GFS & Euro completely go divergent at hr144 of their 12z runs. Euro shows an explosion (bombogenesis) when the cutoff and s/w on the 18th phase. GFS, not quite as explosive. Euro has been known to overamp...just saying...

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00Z ECMWF: Loop Dec 20th through Dec 22nd 8 am - 

Webp.net-gifmaker.thumb.gif.058d48fe7b3c31f0faf5b8628538d6ae.gif1445404563_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).thumb.gif.54a0724d064f882c960e1791fb5627c3.gif

 

Beautiful trough and evolution... Just needed to be farther east before the start of the negative tilt.

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Ahh if this was on the GFS or ECMWF or UKMET.... It would be a bit more believable....

12Z CMC:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-210.gif.47c2f94277a1b9602676f59db3273c8f.gif

 

The only thing I could try to take from this, is that the 00Z ECMWF, as I posted earlier, also has a similar look to the development of the storm. But it´s not even close to this deep and amplified. The ECMWF is inland.

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12Z ECMWF has some kind of partial phase with the clipper and southern stream energy.

Snow for northern parts; interior and rain for the other areas.

Clipper is too far north this run, and the attempted phase takes too long.

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4 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Ahh if this was on the GFS or ECMWF or UKMET.... It would be a bit more believable....

12Z CMC:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-210.gif.47c2f94277a1b9602676f59db3273c8f.gif

 

The only thing I could try to take from this, is that the 00Z ECMWF, as I posted earlier, also has a similar look to the development of the storm. But it´s not even close to this deep and amplified. The ECMWF is inland.

M how reliable is the GEM Compared to euro and gfs?

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1 hour ago, Winter_warlock said:

M how reliable is the GEM Compared to euro and gfs?

We call CMC/GEM - Drunk Uncle, for a reason.

 

18z H5

Spoiler

gfs_z500_vort_us_28.png.ba373795464f3c6e30285f45259ef82c.png

 

 

Spoiler

gfs_z500_vort_us_31.png.c66dd16cbc1e91dec69532146884ee80.png

 

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Both GFS versions continue to go with the clipper alone for this time period, leading to light snows over the region in an unorganized fashion.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF, brings NE´ward from the GOMEX southern stream cutoff energy/low and tracks it to central Virginia, and from there, an ill-defined 992mb low pressure tracks right over NYC and then towards Vermont, where that low pressure starts to phase with the clipper shown on both GFS versions. From there the phasing storm tracks into SE Canada as it continues to deepen, still not well defined. Given the phasing going on,  much colder air on the back side of the storm changes precipitation to snow and a widespread area of snow breaks out on the back side of the storm and covers most of NY state and eventually Vermont and New Hampshire as it heads off farther into Canada.

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23 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Both GFS versions continue to go with the clipper alone for this time period, leading to light snows over the region in an unorganized fashion.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF, brings NE´ward from the GOMEX southern stream cutoff energy/low and tracks it to central Virginia, and from there, an ill-defined 992mb low pressure tracks right over NYC and then towards Vermont, where that low pressure starts to phase with the clipper shown on both GFS versions. From there the phasing storm tracks into SE Canada as it continues to deepen, still not well defined. Given the phasing going on,  much colder air on the back side of the storm changes precipitation to snow and a widespread area of snow breaks out on the back side of the storm and covers most of NY state and eventually Vermont and New Hampshire as it heads off farther into Canada.

A very deep and sharp trough on the 00Z ECMWF:

Webp.net-gifmaker.thumb.gif.895f4266c64eff721d0696a15c53e279.gif

 

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14 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

EPS Control:

Webp.net-gifmaker.thumb.gif.ca7d7e136580439c8f90b39cbb3c083b.gif

Man if only the control can shift 100-150 miles east

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

A very deep and sharp trough on the 00Z ECMWF:

 

 

You're doing a great job tracking this.  Whether we get snow or not, a blast of wintry cold would be almost as welcome.  I find these temps in the 40's to be neither fish nor fowl.  Not really winter, but a bit too chilly for fall - and invariably muddy.  If we can get a blast of real cold, it puts me in the Christmas mood even if it doesn't snow.

We'll know soon enough.

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8 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

You're doing a great job tracking this.  Whether we get snow or not, a blast of wintry cold would be almost as welcome.  I find these temps in the 40's to be neither fish nor fowl.  Not really winter, but a bit too chilly for fall - and invariably muddy.  If we can get a blast of real cold, it puts me in the Christmas mood even if it doesn't snow.

We'll know soon enough.

Thanks!

Trying to keep it updated for all. Be them, snow lovers, those who need rain and those who love a storm in general, even though there hasn't been much interest in this one for obvious reason.

And I agree, a blast of cold does go a long way to many get in that jolly spirit.

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12Z GFS is moving towards the ECWMF depiction.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh150-180.gif.bdc04945d544ddfecd03ca33dce55522.gif

It´s not only the clipper now.

The southern stream energy over the GOMEX, on this run, is interacting with the incoming clipper and trough.

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12Z FV3 GFS also moved towards a solution more closely related to the ECMWF.

Clipper and southern stream energy phase near Long Island and a powerful storm develops.

Starting to get interesting now that both GFS versions and the ECMWF are showing something more similar; northern and southern stream interaction.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh144-180.gif.7acbe89dbda704355631a78d5986d492.gif

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Now that's an alignment we typically like to see...slight positive to neutral trough as it crosses the Mississippi. Too bad heights are already jacked out in front without any cold air....see what track it takes...would need to manufacture it's own cold.

USA_HGT_500mb_144.gif

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Looking like this one will be a big storm on the 12Z ECMWF.

Rain or not.

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1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

Looking like this one will be a big storm on the 12Z ECMWF.

Rain or not.

Too much phasing early.

Going over west-central NY state.

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Eye candy for some .. hopefully for many more by final outcome 

42992E69-C20B-49E0-BF1D-8EAFEF8E90D4.png

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Euro looks to be the "snowpack destroyer just in time for the christmas week" that we've come to expect over the last 15 years here in new england. Still plenty of time for change though....

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18Z GFS is looking wild.

Let's see how it evolves.

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