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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z GFS is looking wild.

Let's see how it evolves.

Weird run so far. Transfers from near St. Louis to coastal South Carolina and then goes back to showing the low the Midwest being the primary one?

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4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z GFS is looking wild.

Let's see how it evolves.

So wild that it had a clipper, then it transfered/developed a low just oof the Carolinas coast, deepened some tracking NNE and then transfered back to the Ohio valley.. :classic_blink:

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2 minutes ago, bradjl2009 said:

Weird run so far. Transfers from near St. Louis to coastal South Carolina and then goes back to showing the low the Midwest being the primary one?

Yea... Too wild for my liking...

 

It seems the models still do not know which low will prevail. The one inland near the Great Lakes or the low near the coast.

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8 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Yea... Too wild for my liking...

 

It seems the models still do not know which low will prevail. The one inland near the Great Lakes or the low near the coast.

Absolutely, perfect description of that run. We have many days to go until an idea for this one is sorted out. 

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Not what u wanna see just before christmas especially if u have snow on the ground..

Granted it's still 7 days away and likely to change many more times..The euro has a similar look as well..

The GL's region may be able to replenish on the back side just in time for christmas..(also a clipper around xmas eve)

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Big storm on the 18Z FV3 GFS

Coastal low becomes the main one tracks from the offshore waters near the coast of Delmarva right over western CT and then over Vermont into Canada.

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What the hell? Disgusting models. This when I'm going skiing, more like surfing. :classic_sad:.

 

The "Bad"

Spoiler

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png.4fdb4a2160b5b174a678e6ff391556c0.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png.63c56616c08100c439a5b9cf85606c44.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png.af7840b97f5bc0364b2e08dcfb582e87.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png.be05fdc17094640d864cfe08e0350edb.png

 

The "Good"

Spoiler

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_29.png.0db536719d9d7c02a43124aa54aba911.png

 

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It's a shame that every promising period from two weeks out, crumble as they get closer.  Expecting a green Christmas.  Nothing seems to be coming together.

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13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It's a shame that every promising period from two weeks out, crumble as they get closer.  Expecting a green Christmas.  Nothing seems to be coming together.

I think it's a little early to write this one off. Granted it is the ICON and GEM, but their current positions dont look bad. Still time to work out temps and track

Edited by Mcap77

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9 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Big storm on the 18Z FV3 GFS

Coastal low becomes the main one tracks from the offshore waters near the coast of Delmarva right over western CT and then over Vermont into Canada.

FV-XXX sure has a penchant for being entertaining. 

Good thing the Std. GFS has a handle on this - I was fearing that the mud pit that is my back lot, might actually dry out. EPA declared it a Wetland and I'd hate to lose that status. (/s off)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png.fa64a2f238a619941e4b925c5553cddf.png

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

FV-XXX sure has a penchant for being entertaining. 

Good thing the Std. GFS has a handle on this - I was fearing that the mud pit that is my back lot, might actually dry out. EPA declared it a Wetland and I'd hate to lose that status. (/s off)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png.fa64a2f238a619941e4b925c5553cddf.png

I can imagine... 

Both 00Z GFS versions, have a powerful storm.

Winds could be impressive with a low pressure into the 970's mb.

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06 FV3 GFS has the southern stream low a clipper phase and develop closer to the coastal plain. It tracks from eastern VA to NW NJ and then to just north of Maine. 

As a result, most of NY state stays on the colder side of the storm and wind driven snow.

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6 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

FV-XXX sure has a penchant for being entertaining. 

Good thing the Std. GFS has a handle on this - I was fearing that the mud pit that is my back lot, might actually dry out. EPA declared it a Wetland and I'd hate to lose that status. (/s off)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png.fa64a2f238a619941e4b925c5553cddf.png

Figures it would rain on the 21st, almost always rains on my birthday. I think were at about 65" for the year so far with more rain  to come from this weekend and then this.

 

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12Z GFS has a big powerful storm; 972mb.

Super rain event for most of the Northeast while some places on the NW and west side of the storm could be seeing blizzard conditions; verbatim. 

Howling winds probably there.

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Would want to see the next couple of frames on this.  Navy separates the storms,  sends one from the gulf up the coast.  Not a lot of cold to work with, but a more favorable track and the cold is advancing from the west.  Bad placement of the 850mb low too.  1865497910_12-156znavgem.png.959de4cc8abeb9a74850dc19ded6f9e3.png

 

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12Z FV3 GFS:

Still a big storm.

At the very least, it will be pretty nice to see this one develop and mature, in case it actually gets confirmed.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-174.gif.f115f8ad1d8a836a0088d90fd7ebf1ed.gif

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I would take anything—even days of our trademark dull overcast instead of RAIN. If it is rain, I hope it misses completely.

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We always seem to get a pre-Christmas rainstorm. It never fails. The grinchy pattern could leave us with  bare ground.

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Lets see how the medium range models look when we start seeing the effects of this SSW taking place

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Meant to place cranky's tweet here...date adjustment needed for this, and corresponding Xmas thread.

 

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2 hours ago, NEPA Snow said:

Lets see how the medium range models look when we start seeing the effects of this SSW taking place

SSWe isn't instant gratification despite what a few on social media are saying.

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On 12/14/2018 at 8:37 PM, Phased Vort said:

We have the NAVGEN for comparison.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_fh156-180.gif.a5a7d4285cefb31bf3b7073f4b273eb2.gif

Need to lose that low in the lakes and have stronger/quicker LP development along the coast and should help zip it through so quick hitter with no real blocking downstream but hey cant always get it right.

4 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

SSWe isn't instant gratification despite what a few on social media are saying.

Yep IF it does happen wouldnt expect much until end of january early february and that is also an IF we receive impacts.

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