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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

PA road DAWG

December 14-16, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

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I seriously dont need anymore rain.  This was the first week I was able to turn off my dehumidifier in my crawl space.  It's been running non stop for 2 months.

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Just what no one wants... more heavy rain.  Prob the next shot at any snow for the northeast is Christmas week

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7 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Just what no one wants... more heavy rain.  Prob the next shot at any snow for the northeast is Christmas week

EPO is key for us...until we can get pacific jet to calm down, availability of cold will be in short supply...

4indices.png

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Normally, low tracks like the EPS and GEFS are advertising would be exciting, but just about everything else about this time period reeks of rain

GEFS MSLP:

Spoiler

1342113130_12-1000zGEFSMSLPh126.png.8ddd59161b1486fe52a48b1d0e26c5c7.png

478731210_12-1000zGEFSMSLPh138.png.5500f172cad120486e21c901c8e70723.png

EPS MSLP:

Spoiler

1434445745_12-1000zEPSMSLPh120.png.a03ae84469d2ac6a2594c25fef0dab20.png

2092092224_12-1000zEPSMSLPh144.png.c371a408b2ccff21773b332a2427362d.png

For example, GEFS 500 mb height tendency indicates lowering heights everywhere except for northerly flow on the back side of the trough where extra cold air would really help this storm out in terms of wintry potential. As a result, marginal temperatures will be a big problem for what appears to be an otherwise decent storm

Spoiler

1656740422_12-1000zGEFS500mbtrendh132.png.fa6c8ff83ec85ab99a7b6ac8fc4331e6.png

 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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12Z UKMET advertising southern slider.  No cold air so likely all rain down south this time.  Interesting how the GFS and CMC sill going with cutter.

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000sl.gif

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000sl.gif

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Here is the 12z UKMET..

Looks like 2 lows, or 1 broad low along the east coast?

Probably rain nonetheless even though i can not confirm that lol

download (14).png

download (16).png

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GYX fron this morning

Quote

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall, the 500 MB pattern in the long range
shows less signs of significant changes than it did a few days
ago, but for the most part it looks milder across most of NOAM
as the coldest air stays over the Arctic and Siberia. So, the
warm up remains tempered, but temps should shift to normal or a
little above normal by late week into the weekend. The other
trend is that phasing of the nrn and srn stream does not occur
and the Friday -Saturday system trend to the south, as previous
storms have done over the last several days.

Still, we will see a shot of cold air moving in Tuesday night
and hanging around through Wed night. The front could produce
some snow showers in the mtns Tue night, and temps Tue night
will drop in the single digits and teens again. Wed should be
mainly sunny /some clouds in the mtns/ with highs around 20 in
the mtns to the upper 20s in srn NH and near the coast. Wed
night will be clear and cold, with mins depending on how quickly
the winds die off and rad cooling sets in. The mtns, especially
the vlys should fall below zero, with single digits most other
inland areas outside of the more urban areas of srn NH and the
coast where lows will be around or just above 10F.

Thu looks a little bit warmer, and mostly to partly sunny, with
highs mid 30s N to low 30s S. Some WAA Thu night should produce
a period of mid to high clouds and low will be milder than
previous nights generally in the teens to low 20s. Fri will be
milder, and at least partly sunny, with highs in the mid 30s to
low 40s.

The next system will impact the area to some degree Fri night
into Saturday. If the systems do not phase, which is the model
trend at this point, we still could see some light or showery
precip from the nrn wave in this timeframe, thus the chc pops.
Temps should be mild enough for mainly rain outside of the mtns
Saturday, but will not rule out any precip starting as snow /or
possibly FZRA/ for short period Fri night. System will clear the
area Sat night, with fair and seasonable conds expected Sunday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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Did I miss anything while we were all gone?

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 Obviously this site was down so you could manipulate the weather for us to have a white Christmas.  That takes a lot of energy.  Much appreciated! ☃️❄️🌬

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Good to be back up and running .. I was going through withdrawals lol now all I need is some eye candy snow maps!! 

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My other half asked me what was wrong. I said nothing...then said the forum was down..didnt know what was going on. Meanwhile..inside.. I was falling apart. 😂😂😂😂😂. But, seriously... I was. Glad to be back. I had to cheat and go to the American forum. 

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Good ole professor grabby.

717403180_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000(4).gif.1e8ebf96c265c7af48413672bbcfb542.gif

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Whew. I missed snobal.

Thanks for your efforts, JanitMaster. 

 

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16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

My other half asked me what was wrong. I said nothing...then said the forum was down..didnt know what was going on. Meanwhile..inside.. I was falling apart. 😂😂😂😂😂. But, seriously... I was. Glad to be back. I had to cheat and go to the American forum. 

Good lord, I felt like I was going through withdrawal, Hot flashes before my wife's eyes, I panicked went on to that Accu site..whatever its called, I saw some of my family members there but not all..we were dazed and confused wondering if we would ever be able to click that heart again, then I received an email telling me that the wildfire has passed and our home has been sparred. I look inside and I see everyone, hello all!

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All I can say is, good luck to our "suthnuh" friends who have snowpack and this dump of wet QPF

WPC QPF

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8 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

My other half asked me what was wrong. I said nothing...then said the forum was down..didnt know what was going on. Meanwhile..inside.. I was falling apart. 😂😂😂😂😂. But, seriously... I was. Glad to be back. I had to cheat and go to the American forum. 

I actually got work done at work yesterday.. lol 

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2 hours ago, KENNYP2339 said:

I actually got work done at work yesterday.. lol 

How horrible, I'm sorry.

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