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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

PA road DAWG

December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

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Euro been showing a deep trough setting up over the eastern half of the country with an area of low pressure deepening as it travels north/northeastward.  The AO and NAO are tanking during this timeframe which would indicate the northeast could see a coastal storm of sorts.  Definitely bears watching and could be very explosive for some if the setup is right as the trough goes negative early.   The last few runs has progressively traveled further and further east with the trough and low pressure (good thing).   As it stands now it’s be warm for most, but this is a thing Of beauty  

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Anyone have the BSR for this timeframe ?

Edited by PA road DAWG

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6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Anyone have the BSR for this timeframe ?

:classic_ohmy:!

845265249_Webp.net-gifmaker(49).gif.5f5268a0049d2e3746decdefc829d91b.gif

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5 minutes ago, Solstice said:

:classic_ohmy:!

845265249_Webp.net-gifmaker(49).gif.5f5268a0049d2e3746decdefc829d91b.gif

Holy god.  That’s the craziest bsr I’ve seen in a while. Xoxo 

Edited by PA road DAWG

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TWC has me in the upper 30s and low 40s during the day and between 27 and 33 at night during this time frame :(

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Let's see how this pans out...  around Christmas time also looks active according to the bsr.  

 

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why does the gfs have me getting to 50 degrees but the cmc has me getting into the mid or upper 30's in this time frame ??

Edited by weathergoof

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I wouldn’t worry about surface temps on a global model tomorrow let alone 7-10 days out..

Just my personal opinion..

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34 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

I wouldn’t worry about surface temps on a global model tomorrow let alone 7-10 days out..

Just my personal opinion..

Although the December warm looks inevitable, but hey sometimes the biggest snowstorms were the ones that had the least amount cold air to work with soo..

Edited by shaulov4
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is it true that strong snowstorms can drag down colder air?? This storm looks like quite the doozy on the gfs model!!!

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13 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

is it true that strong snowstorms can drag down colder air?? This storm looks like quite the doozy on the gfs model!!!

:forumsmiley1092-1:

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I don't know what to believe... its just something iv'e heard before. I believe a local met said that if i'm not mistaken 

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1 minute ago, weathergoof said:

I don't know what to believe... its just something iv'e heard before. I believe a local met said that if i'm not mistaken 

I meant towards the GFS model output, not the snowstorm dragging down cold air. I'm actually not sure about that...

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This is from a mobile app that shows what the models are showing called "flowx" Screenshot_20181205-192509.thumb.png.16f2332906b55d613cdeae06501608a3.png

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56 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

is it true that strong snowstorms can drag down colder air?? This storm looks like quite the doozy on the gfs model!!!

Yes and they can even generate their own, and based on that upper air pattern being depicted this would generate a lot of it.  

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30 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

This is from a mobile app that shows what the models are showing called "flowx" 

This is fabulous!  My pops is a weather junkie too, I'll have to show him this.

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Gfs on board with a powerful system near the east coast 

5FB3F46F-D2EA-43A1-90FB-D3D4BBCBBA61.png

66CC2762-89F7-4510-A97A-05E4E79F4923.png

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9FE10B3E-E7A9-424A-A8D1-38D5A2088D15.gif

406AE127-C4B8-47DE-A7A8-BFAA8A212A23.gif

Edit: Whoops saw this was already posted...  it’s cool looking  enough to see it twice 😎 

actually matches that 18z gfs op run quite nice

Edited by Poconosnow

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26 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

9FE10B3E-E7A9-424A-A8D1-38D5A2088D15.gif

406AE127-C4B8-47DE-A7A8-BFAA8A212A23.gif

Edit: Whoops saw this was already posted...  it’s cool looking  enough to see it twice 😎 

actually matches that 18z gfs op run quite nice

What do you think POC?  think this has some potential?   I know it’s early but I’m already impressed by what some of the global models are spitting out. 

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37 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

What do you think POC?  think this has some potential?   I know it’s early but I’m already impressed by what some of the global models are spitting out. 

The ensembles actually ticked worse at 18z but there’s enough time for them to produce largely different results as their is a large maritime gale and the 10-11th storm downstream. Their 48hr trend looks good to great even...

82ACE769-FA36-4074-ADAA-287C243FB862.png.1f3dec22974eef7d4512fc43de1692ac.png

 

 If this is going to be a wintery storm for the east coast it likely have to be a large transfer.  It’s very nothern stream driven and the wave spacing between this and the earlier storm doesn’t really produce or anchor in a cold HP.  Definitely worth watching.

It has a strong organic signal... japan is also getting their largest snowstorm of the year on the 7th.  You know I like when it snows in japan for the east coast to see snow 6-8 days later.  LJS index will be pretty high for this one 😛

 

8D8FEFAE-7931-4C54-B7EF-761E574A4426.png

Edited by Poconosnow
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6 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

The ensembles actually ticked worse at 18z but there’s enough time for them to produce largely different results as their is a large maritime gale and the 10-11th storm downstream. Their 48hr trend looks good to great even...

82ACE769-FA36-4074-ADAA-287C243FB862.png.1f3dec22974eef7d4512fc43de1692ac.png

 

 If this is going to be a wintery storm for the east coast it likely have to be a large transfer.  It’s very nothern stream driven and the wave spacing between this and the earlier storm doesn’t really produce or anchor in a cold HP.  Definitely worth watching.

It has a strong organic signal... japan is also getting their largest snowstorm of the year on the 7th.  You know I like when it snows in japan for the east coast to see snow 6-8 days later.  LJS index will be pretty high for this one 😛

 

8D8FEFAE-7931-4C54-B7EF-761E574A4426.png

Funny you mention Japan I just went and looked and noticed the same thing.     It is tough to tell what the BSR shiws because those frames are moving so quickly but it just looks like a big Miller A to me  

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3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Funny you mention Japan I just went and looked and noticed the same thing.     It is tough to tell what the BSR shiws because those frames are moving so quickly but it just looks like a big Miller A to me  

I don’t really reccomend using the organic signals to try and figure out a storm type.  The wave train sometimes is responding to different harmonics and other teleconnected tendencies as they pass through different geographies.  But I think the BSR has a transferish feel.  This storm imho will likely need a transfer to produce in the east coast, just my current thinking.  

Edited by Poconosnow
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Looking juicy

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

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Edited by PA Snow 84
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Is the euro showing a triple phaser ?   I can’t tell but it winds up rather nicely 

014CB5A5-CD25-4B06-A9BF-2C413DB01CC0.png

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Edited by PA road DAWG

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Is the euro showing a triple phaser ?   I can’t tell but it winds up rather nicely 

014CB5A5-CD25-4B06-A9BF-2C413DB01CC0.png

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In a word - no. It uses the ST jet and the Pac jet - in fact the Arctic (sometimes called Polar jet) is so far removed (in that image) that the storm has to (indeed) "pull down" (pool down?) the cold air. 

To previous post - can a storm make its own cold? Kind of - there is always cold air aloft (way up there) even in warm months. A storm can use strong dynamics and heavy precip, to transport that cold to the mid levels/surface. 

4 panels show this well

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Note how the 850's (lower right panel) have the black circle over the mainland US - separate from the bulk of cold 850's well to the north; then the upper right panel with thickness values, see how the cold thickness (dashed red line) is also closed off; upper left panel shows a closed beast of a storm - but the arctic/polar jet is well to its north thus no TP displayed.

Ironically, in this image, Maine and NE will be warmer than SC/GA as the fronting winds pump relatively warm Atl air in the NE - and deep cold down the west side of the Apps almost to FL

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