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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

PA road DAWG

December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

In a word - no. It uses the ST jet and the Pac jet - in fact the Arctic (sometimes called Polar jet) is so far removed (in that image) that the storm has to (indeed) "pull down" (pool down?) the cold air. 

To previous post - can a storm make its own cold? Kind of - there is always cold air aloft (way up there) even in warm months. A storm can use strong dynamics and heavy precip, to transport that cold to the mid levels/surface. 

4 panels show this well

f240.thumb.gif.97bdad571b34f8949b7129499733fffc.gif

Note how the 850's (lower right panel) have the black circle over the mainland US - separate from the bulk of cold 850's well to the north; then the upper right panel with thickness values, see how the cold thickness (dashed red line) is also closed off; upper left panel shows a closed beast of a storm - but the arctic/polar jet is well to its north thus no TP displayed.

Ironically, in this image, Maine and NE will be warmer than SC/GA as the fronting winds pump relatively warm Atl air in the NE - and deep cold down the west side of the Apps almost to FL

Ok thanks

As it stands now most guidance is suggesting that one of the main issues with This system will be cold air.   There’s no real cold high to the north funneling cold down.  The storm looks very strong though so any available will get snatched up quick  

542E9C6E-71A3-442B-9543-2A2D55E5184A.gif

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Seems to be worth noting that most storms last year phased with good result for many coastal locations. So far, this year appears to be the year of shoddy phasing resulting in messy double barrel lows that favor the lakes and the northeastern interior. 

My early guess for this time frame, based on recent storms, is a GLC into a coastal transfer that only benefits portions of NY, VT, NH, and ME. #pessimism

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PARD, do you have the euro snowmap through hour 240 at 0z?  850’s were cold enough for snow in PA but I’m not sure about surface.

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38 minutes ago, clindner00 said:

PARD, do you have the euro snowmap through hour 240 at 0z?  850’s were cold enough for snow in PA but I’m not sure about surface.

The high country of the Southern Appalachians win again.  Not enough cold yet

7B6AF08D-086D-473D-A3F3-3A588030DEFA.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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17 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The high country of the Southern Appalachians win again.  Not enough cold yet

7B6AF08D-086D-473D-A3F3-3A588030DEFA.png

Ok thanks!  Thought it was gonna look better than that.

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13 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

9FE10B3E-E7A9-424A-A8D1-38D5A2088D15.gif

406AE127-C4B8-47DE-A7A8-BFAA8A212A23.gif

Edit: Whoops saw this was already posted...  it’s cool looking  enough to see it twice 😎 

actually matches that 18z gfs op run quite nice

If I’m not mistaken that bsr looks like it is a coastal transfer 

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Looks warm for me - anyone want to do a forum ski weekend in WV mountains? :dance2::classic_tongue:

 

Also, I'm pleased with the moisture being depicted so far this season - it's really impressive. If even a fraction of this system comes to fruition, it'll bump DC over the all-time precip record I think?

Edited by EstorilM

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12z gfs clearly trying to do the coastal transfer idea.  Let’s see how well it hands off the energy. Great trends imo 

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Transferred to the coast but it was a messy transfer.  IMO they are Good signs for being 9-10 days away 

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Maybe moving down south is a better idea than I thought.

24hr snow

1195635591_12-6eurosnowfor12-16.thumb.png.19fb61415096025be521e94ea9b810f6.png

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There looks like there’s no cold air to work with on the euro .  

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Euro looks really slow with this storm. Like it might not get going at the coast till 264.. that’s my guess with 0 access

 

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We want the ECMWF to cooperate with the cold air.

18Z GFS looks suspicious. It floods the region with warm air, and then a 993mb storm manages to chance most of the precipitation shield to snow, when a couple of frames before, there was only warmer air.

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18z gefs with a brilliant offering 

F41A570E-35DF-4C8B-8B27-E3E690CF83C1.thumb.gif.2521dd9fb0949329778ce71875eac6e0.gif

Some bombers in the 970-980mb range transferring and running up the coast 

almost too good 😛

If the east coast can pull a snow from the depths of an extended pac jet and +epo period bravo.  Would be an impressive presentation.  

Edited by Poconosnow

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36 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

18z gefs with a brilliant offering 

F41A570E-35DF-4C8B-8B27-E3E690CF83C1.thumb.gif.2521dd9fb0949329778ce71875eac6e0.gif

Some bombers in the 970-980mb range transferring and running up the coast 

almost too good 😛

If the east coast can pull a snow from the depths of an extended pac jet and +epo period bravo.  Would be an impressive presentation.  

Isn’t a +epo what our area needs for good snowstorms ?

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4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Isn’t a +epo what our area needs for good snowstorms ?

I believe it is its negative counterpart.

-EPO  aids in keeping colder air over the eastern third of the US.

 

-AO

-EPO

-NAO

+PNA

That´s a good team, especially when some of them are transitioning.

If I´m mistaken in any way, someone please feel free to intervene. 

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looking to be to warm right now for this one but lets see what happens

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58 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

looking to be to warm right now for this one but lets see what happens

Depends on where you live man.  On most models, yes.  If anyone is following the FV3 gfs, it is showing some heavy convection wrapping in and giving around a foot of snow or so to western PA.  This will be interesting to watch.

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16 minutes ago, clindner00 said:

Depends on where you live man.  On most models, yes.  If anyone is following the FV3 gfs, it is showing some heavy convection wrapping in and giving around a foot of snow or so to western PA.  This will be interesting to watch.

conn

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There’s a couple big storm chances between now and Christmas for a good portion of our region .. lots of energy running around .. it won’t take much to have the pieces come together for a nice hit for any particular region .. the 8th-10th thread showed a hit in New England a week ago and look where that ended up .. there’s many surprises in store .. enjoying every minute of it and it’s exciting either way .whether I get it or not .. like Bastardi use to say .. enjoy the weather .. it’s all you got and if you don’t like what you have ..don’t worry it’ll change 

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Almost all the models showing a cutter of some sort with a marginal airmass in place.  Yesterday’s 18z gfs run displayed a beautiful app runner to a coastal transfer that was glorious.   I’m hoping the next few runs go back to something like that, because believe it or not we are only a week away so time is getting short. 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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17 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

Eastern pacific oscillation is a variation of the atmospheric flow across the eastern pacific. 

Here is the epo index pattern in its +phase for h5 and surface temps (negative would be the opposite of map)

4BC82F2D-35C2-4F04-B7FC-F49DBB69356B.thumb.gif.f7eada4bb728542e3cf4aef27c2bc940.gif

When in the + phase mild air flows onto the west coast and as it crosses the Rocky Mountains it dries out and becomes temperate and sinks.  In the east we would rather the epo be negative, as would be the opposite of the above +phase depiction.  A ridge would be in place over the east pacific off the west coast and high pressure would force the air up into Alaska and the artic.  The ridge would displace the colder air down into the central and nothern US which would then modify our temperatures here in the northeast as well also indicated on the above index pattern. 

The stronger the -epo the more cold that can be displaced, the longer the epo stays negative the longer the temperatures in the central and nothern reaches of the US will stay modified.  

So no the hugely +epo upcoming is not good for snows in the east which makes the current model depictions of a snowstorm so difficult.  

D77E0414-AB4C-43C1-AF97-57CDA6C27C90.thumb.jpeg.33dab5d760ad3292ed8768ede5188f63.jpeg

However bombogenesis can create its own dynamics as we well know.  Fascinating to watch the battle on the models for this period. 

Nerd....

oh wait....

2DDF5442-C57A-4F3A-86B3-764CB04654B7.jpeg

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Almost all the models showing a cutter of some sort with a marginal airmass in place.  Yesterday’s 18z gfs run displayed a beautiful app runner to a coastal transfer that was glorious.   I’m hoping the next few runs go back to something like that, because believe it or not we are only a week away so time is getting short. 

Little help upstream, no help downstream...this one just has “cursed” written all over it. The PNA region is our only favorable indicator and I don’t think it will be enough. I’m just hoping it’s not a potential flooding situation like 12z GFS is painting.

PS there are signs we may get some downstream support after this system...we’ll see.

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40 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Little help upstream, no help downstream...this one just has “cursed” written all over it. The PNA region is our only favorable indicator and I don’t think it will be enough. I’m just hoping it’s not a potential flooding situation like 12z GFS is painting.

PS there are signs we may get some downstream support after this system...we’ll see.

Yea I’ve been looking over all the guidance and it appears a cutter is almost near imminent at this point.  The upper air pattern just screams cutter and I’ve always had a motto, that once you go cutter you never go back.   Still seven days away and we all know anything can change but we would need epic changes here.  You are right hopefully this can set the stage for the next system

Edited by PA road DAWG

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