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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

PA road DAWG

December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

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13 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yea I’ve been looking over all the guidance and it appears a cutter is almost near imminent at this point.  The upper air pattern just screams cutter and I’ve always had a motto, that once you go cutter you never go back.   Still seven days away and we all know anything can change but we would need epic changes here.  You are right hopefully this can set the stage for the next system

12z Euro...looks like a good one for OH & MI folks with a rain-to-snow type situation...but I'm not looking at precip maps.

Euro actually gave me something to keep an eye on as well. IF that elongated trough went negative, it could pop something off the coast... seems like there was an SLP that wanted to pop off SC coast at hr216...

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Once the solution becomes a cutter, it tends to remain a cutter. If this is not a snow maker, I hope it misses us altogether because one thing we don’t need is rain!

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25 minutes ago, bobbo428 said:

Once the solution becomes a cutter, it tends to remain a cutter. If this is not a snow maker, I hope it misses us altogether because one thing we don’t need is rain!

Its_0c72de_894137.jpg.bf38620e9e617abd81fe405a440c3867.jpg

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42 minutes ago, bobbo428 said:

Once the solution becomes a cutter, it tends to remain a cutter. If this is not a snow maker, I hope it misses us altogether because one thing we don’t need is rain!

So close to a record wet year here, would be a "waste" to miss it at this point. Bring the qpf! :p

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:rainydays_2:said no one ever.

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1 hour ago, Solstice said:

:rainydays_2:said no one ever.

for most people your statement is correct, but as a farmer there are many days during the growing season I pray for rain.  (this year being the exception)

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30 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

for most people your statement is correct, but as a farmer there are many days during the growing season I pray for rain.  (this year being the exception)

Those of us on wells tend not to mind the rain. The mud is, I guess, the price we pay. 

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This would definitely help IPT get oh so close to the record. 18z GFS.

 

gfs_apcpn_neus_35.png

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On 12/6/2018 at 7:23 PM, Poconosnow said:

Eastern pacific oscillation is a variation of the atmospheric flow across the eastern pacific. 

Here is the epo index pattern in its +phase for h5 and surface temps (negative would be the opposite of map)

4BC82F2D-35C2-4F04-B7FC-F49DBB69356B.thumb.gif.f7eada4bb728542e3cf4aef27c2bc940.gif

When in the + phase mild air flows onto the west coast and as it crosses the Rocky Mountains it dries out and becomes temperate and sinks.  In the east we would rather the epo be negative, as would be the opposite of the above +phase depiction.  A ridge would be in place over the east pacific off the west coast and high pressure would force the air up into Alaska and the artic.  The ridge would displace the colder air down into the central and nothern US which would then modify our temperatures here in the northeast as well also indicated on the above index pattern. 

The stronger the -epo the more cold that can be displaced, the longer the epo stays negative the longer the temperatures in the central and nothern reaches of the US will stay modified.  

So no the hugely +epo upcoming is not good for snows in the east which makes the current model depictions of a snowstorm so difficult.  

D77E0414-AB4C-43C1-AF97-57CDA6C27C90.thumb.jpeg.33dab5d760ad3292ed8768ede5188f63.jpeg

However bombogenesis can create its own dynamics as we well know.  Fascinating to watch the battle on the models for this period. 

Yeah, the EPO is huge either way for us many times. At times a significantly -AO can overcome the flood of warm air from a +EPO, however, the EPO plays a large role with regards to sensible weather in the NE US.

Nice write up by the way

Edited by Uscg ast

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19 hours ago, JDClapper said:

So close to a record wet year here, would be a "waste" to miss it at this point. Bring the qpf! :p

And they will still say  WERE  in a drought LOL

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UKie is trolling

ukm2.2018121500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.241c327abd057397c77a7f654e962801.png

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Ecmwf not a shred of cold around this run.  Can't blame sun angle. And, it's not a cutter. :classic_laugh:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_9.thumb.png.35924f58ba229438b977ebc9840fb9b6.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_10.thumb.png.5c30978340762660b86030d5c33cd68c.png

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13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Ecmwf not a shred of cold around this run.  Can't blame sun angle. And, it's not a cutter. :classic_laugh:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_9.thumb.png.35924f58ba229438b977ebc9840fb9b6.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_10.thumb.png.5c30978340762660b86030d5c33cd68c.png

Why exactly is it showing no cold? The 850's do look warm.

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35 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Ecmwf not a shred of cold around this run.  Can't blame sun angle. And, it's not a cutter. :classic_laugh:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_9.thumb.png.35924f58ba229438b977ebc9840fb9b6.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_10.thumb.png.5c30978340762660b86030d5c33cd68c.png

Is this the same storm, or, one trailing right after the cutter?

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19 minutes ago, Weather Fury said:

Why exactly is it showing no cold? The 850's do look warm.

It's a slow mover that is pumping the heights (and warm air) ahead of it, and it gets "caught" under a building eastern US ridge as it cuts off. By the time another wave kicks it out, there's just no cold left, and it's isolated from any cold source. 

That's just this run though, it'll change. :classic_smile:

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is this the same storm, or, one trailing right after the cutter?

There's no real cutter on this particular run.  There's a little shortwave that moves through the great lakes and up the st Lawrence just prior,  but that's a "newer" wrinkle in modeling.  The storm is just a day slower this run. 

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I truly hope that this can miss us somehow--there seldom has been a system I've wanted to be a miss like this one. I need to hold on to my 1-2 inches of snow while I can.

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47 minutes ago, bobbo428 said:

I truly hope that this can miss us somehow--there seldom has been a system I've wanted to be a miss like this one. I need to hold on to my 1-2 inches of snow while I can.

Wow, down to that little, bummer. Aren't you at like 26" on the season so far? I've received 21" and still have 6-8" of wicked crusty, hard snow. 

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

It's a slow mover that is pumping the heights (and warm air) ahead of it, and it gets "caught" under a building eastern US ridge as it cuts off. By the time another wave kicks it out, there's just no cold left, and it's isolated from any cold source. 

That's just this run though, it'll change. :classic_smile:

The ECMWF is trying to indicate that this may go to the coast and track NE affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. But as you well said, there´s really not a lot of cold air. So the ECMWF is hinting at some ice situation for the Northeast.

That should be monitored. With a lack of deeper cold air, this ice possibility could evolve and become a problematic situation.

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3 minutes ago, Weather Fury said:

Do any sites show Euro surface temps? I know most give 850.

It's free, but the amount of ads is ever increasing

I just picked a random frame. 

Screenshot_20181208-163444_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f785a0dd666b09f7aa10e19541aa73ab.jpg

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018120812/usa-east/temperature-f/20181216-0600z.html

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Surface isn’t all that bad, but the 850s torch.  Pics for All same time frame.  It’s a lot easier to depict freezing line using Celsius maps 

2357FEBA-6284-4D99-BD18-16CA85749DAE.png

4165EDA3-3176-47B4-9D44-9BF771F71AE0.png

0CBEE9EC-6316-41F7-BB96-C6D3868EAFCE.png

FF08F4F6-1C0C-4F68-AF6B-507F2A3E0D9F.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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25 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Surface isn’t all that bad, but the 850s torch.  Pics for All same time frame.  It’s a lot easier to depict freezing line using Celsius maps 

2357FEBA-6284-4D99-BD18-16CA85749DAE.png

4165EDA3-3176-47B4-9D44-9BF771F71AE0.png

0CBEE9EC-6316-41F7-BB96-C6D3868EAFCE.png

FF08F4F6-1C0C-4F68-AF6B-507F2A3E0D9F.png

We know it'll change plenty of times.  I just found it funny that the business end of everyone's lower intestine puckered up with all the cutter solutions, then we geta favorable track, but no cold. :classic_smile:

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