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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

PA road DAWG

December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

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6 hours ago, TheWiledCard said:

Holy smokes look at that rain.

 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

Hey @MDBlueRidge there's that GLC I was looking for! 😂

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46 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

We know it'll change plenty of times.  I just found it funny that the business end of everyone's lower intestine puckered up with all the cutter solutions, then we geta favorable track, but no cold. :classic_smile:

Hahahahah. Seems like there’s always “ONE” thing prohibiting a storm up this way.  Whether it be confluence, no HP....it’s always just one thing.  Man...what’d I do for an onshore flow with orographic lift sitting at 8,000’.   

Edited by PA road DAWG
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2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Hahahahah. Seems like there’s always “ONE” thing prohibiting a storm up this way.  Whether it be confluence, no HP....it’s always just one thing.  Man...what’d I do for an onshore flow with orographic lift sitting at 8,000’.   

It's the beginning of december.... not even the winter yet.  Most places have had 4"plus alone in November.  So some storms bring rain before winter begins, no big deal.  

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Evolution of storm still... evolving. 6zs and 0z cmc

 

 

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Local Mets Sunday saying big storm headed out way with a warm up to mid 40s 

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Of course this will change a few times let’s see what happens 

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17 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Hahahahah. Seems like there’s always “ONE” thing prohibiting a storm up this way.  Whether it be confluence, no HP....it’s always just one thing.  Man...what’d I do for an onshore flow with orographic lift sitting at 8,000’.   

You can always build a little cabin next to the weather observatory on Mt. Washington, just bring tie downs. 

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By Gawd, the same regions getting SN++ today are in for a heavy dose of rain, as a follow up act. I'm not intentionally being a wet blanket for those folks, but if that bears out, ugh with mud and localized flood(?)

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18 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

By Gawd, the same regions getting SN++ today are in for a heavy dose of rain, as a follow up act. I'm not intentionally being a wet blanket for those folks, but if that bears out, ugh with mud and localized flood(?)

Yeah...12z GFS painting some in that region at 3-6”

EF8D6563-C339-4D31-9A15-5CF41CA63C4E.gif

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Euro operational run has a slider

1370567712_12-9eurorunfor1214.gif.d7b07f9fbfd62d6546d067fa3adee20e.gif

Euro ensembles with a chance of everything.

1326560843_12-9epsfor12-14.gif.7a1e259216e910ab0bc02a0682b7a2b7.gif

12z GFS Ens mean

image.png.793978c2242a667d8c575eaaece16bcb.png

FV3

image.png.63fcfdc08b713ae71c9f27f4f273fd86.png

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12z Euro trying to pull down the colder 850's as storm is along the southland - this seems to be a sig change from previous? 

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f144.thumb.gif.56fc709657167b0cea69e966fc551c25.gif

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2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

No cold air to work with:rain-2::classic_angry:  :6:

Were not even in technical winter yet. Just saying. 

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KBUF

Quote

The downside to the changing pattern will be that there will be a
large and potentially problematic storm system that will plague
much of the eastern third of the country by the weekend. The
mainstream guidance packages are still having trouble resolving the
evolution of this system...but there is increasing confidence that a
large southern stream system will make its way across the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Friday...before making a turn to the northeast
Friday night and Saturday. It is the timing of this turn and
subsequent track that are still being `debated` though. The
deepening and ever expanding storm system could make its way
northward along the western slopes of the Appalachians...or track
further east and possibly off the Mid Atlantic coast.

After a dry but cloudy day to start on Thursday...the above
discussed storm system will create deteriorating conditions across
our region Thursday night into the weekend. Will maintain the
general thinking from continuity...which is that the storm system
will cut west of the Appalachians and produce a fairly long period
of rainy mild weather. Confidence in this solution is not high
though. A more eastward track would lead to notably lower
precipitation amounts and possibly some wintry p-types. Stay tuned.

Source

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59 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

No cold air to work with:rain-2::classic_angry:  :6:

 

gonrain.jpg

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1 hour ago, Uscg ast said:

Were not even in technical winter yet. Just saying. 

Meanwhile this weekend we have too much cold air to work with. 😂

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The iceberg being created down south today should prevent this storm from tracking too far north, but the lack of cold air strongly suggests a predominantly liquid event.

Personally, I don't think there's anything better than cold rain ... NOT!!!

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12Z ECMWF did come in colder.

Very interesting.

Let´s see how it evolves.

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