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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Poconosnow

December 23-25, 2018 | Christmas Light Snow

Staff Recommended Posts

Busiest travel time of the year is just about two weeks away. 

Christmas falls on a Tuesday this year so the weekend prior will most definitely be a highly traveled few days. 

There appears to be a possibility that there could be a disturbance to monitor. 

A few organic signals key in on the period between the 22-26th

the BSR

96A543B4-EE6F-414E-A083-235CDA3417CE.gif.2e0a72db246b33a6fcb95743b6c41d3f.gif

Depiction: A GOM low pressure rises up on the westward side of the apps into a cold HP which forces it’s transfer to the coast south of Delmarva 

here is the current 32kNam analysis and forecast of the transfer seen on the bsr 

8E8EE0DE-2AF7-4CDB-AEDA-18DD6CF5FE22.thumb.gif.eb88c5e81a4678f1b9192d73e77caefc.gif

East asia rule needs to be looked in a long range forecast so it’s very volatile in nature

Can only surmise a few things:

CDD59352-769C-44EF-B16D-B26759FA1B32.thumb.png.c170ed0b6eb1db3037a421e8325765c9.pngCFDB236C-F5FE-4238-BDA0-F3E01327B52F.thumb.png.3a31e51f4e173398b74467eb3e8323b5.png

last few gfs runs have a trough moving over Japan on the 19th which would be a short 6 day correlation to the east coast of the US.  Also a strong southern jet steak is being amplified by a nothern injection from a split flow.

Interestingly enough there appears to be a possible typhoon in the region.  If true it will aid in dropping heights from its latent heat production.

the MJO is forecasted to be entering phase 4 during the lead up to this period.

DF18C4D9-A4DB-49A1-99EB-7D848D04B209.gif.864b09c7fecf315c1b063a7f01ca1ed8.gif

Phase 4 and 5 during an El Niño or neutral conditions is not favorable for negative anomalous 500mb geopotential heights.  Composite:

33D887A6-EA77-499F-8DE8-A3C423D975DE.thumb.png.2baf52fdd9813b5d91db632167609c68.png

All the same, we must consider the Mjo and enso state in such long range depictions. 

Among other signals The SOI had a sharp increase towards the end of November which resulted in an ~10pts rise around Nov 28th.  

EABE0FD3-4B57-4A24-8646-24623E1EC629.thumb.jpeg.c628166022174578eed8c2dd49f23812.jpeg39E5AD3F-5E2A-4366-A13C-1BCD8AF7F94A.thumb.jpeg.8046d97f0611d9af66e7acec75bbedef.jpeg

The resultant composite posted in the long range Winter thread by @jdrenkenwould be valid Dec 23rd. 

Finally in the face of some positive storm signals but also some possible warmers tempature signals we must consider the affects of a 3-4 week lag on the eastern US from a wave 2 stratospheric warming which occurred in the last week of November. 

Here was the time series plot from Jma of wave total and zonal strat temperatures along with the final look of the displacement on Nov 290840A6F3-A699-4361-B9A2-FB603BBBF35D.gif.ec8b5a6f10c745bd399dfd7adfb615f3.gif03E04A4B-2D2C-4A99-9F00-5CA61F666287.thumb.png.61c1e3d5b4071eef2e110d5bbc5e97a6.png

 

Numerical model predictions:

current 0z cfs for Dec 25th

C0BED414-8D05-4B76-BF0B-14D38EA91F32.thumb.png.f72dbfcdb099c65ea222f83baff493ce.png

also @StretchCT posted a shot of the long range Euro for around Christmas in the Long range winter thread. 

85C8BEBD-58B7-4B02-BD50-1D62090A2D5F.thumb.jpeg.93efd24ca9a8f7a65ae6b0b507f238d2.jpeg

 

A volatile December temperature wise seems to be upon us.  A hugely +epo should be crashing just prior to Christmas 

0EC49E7A-60FD-4A19-929A-9EDF8A0712EF.thumb.png.8d1c5b8eaf50da4937d04afb4fad0673.png

couple that with the lagged effect of the wave 2 stratospheric displacement over the northeast US and we have the makings of some large temperature swings possible entering the the last week of December.  Volatility breeds storms so it’s best to keep an eye out for the huge travel weekend leading up to Christmas and the day following. 

A Happy and Safe Holiday to all! 🎅 

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Awesome, Poc. Always appreciated your detail as a lurker the past several years on Accu. Watching this closely since I'll be taking a redeye on the 23rd, landing in Newark on the morning of the 24th.

Looking forward to tracking this along the way.

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Eps control teeing one up too

 

B3BDDCD0-C787-42D8-9C3C-9A332535F4F9.thumb.png.d1c5196b0accf090a304556399523cd9.png

But may be too warm.  

 

Edited by StretchCT

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PARD's wet dream right there

39 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

For fun, especially since the next 10 days seem boring.  I’m treating this thread as the white Christmas thread, so anything that falls and leaves white for Christmas fits😉

Like this doozy from the gfs, move that east a bit, over warmer water.....

CBA4AFA0-8627-4519-ABC1-07DF58752F47.png.f97433e9dd7d4994e7196c6fb51617b3.png

Eps control teeing one up too

B3BDDCD0-C787-42D8-9C3C-9A332535F4F9.thumb.png.d1c5196b0accf090a304556399523cd9.png

But may be too warm.  

 

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2 hours ago, PA Snow 84 said:

PARD's wet dream right there

 

You mean white dream?

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If you haven’t already I highly suggest you all follow cranky on twitter.  IMO is he a mastermind when it comes to weather and NEVER BEATS AROUND THE BUSH.   He will tell you exactly how it is and what to expect.  He rarely goes out on a limb and talks about opportunities in the far future, but based on what I just read he seems to really “like” the end of week three to week four timeframe this month (near Xmas) for the possibility of a major disturbance.  Basically everything Pocono said cranky piggy backed on.    Just some food for thought to keep an eye on as we go forward.  Definitely fun times ahead.  

85DC4EE6-A71A-405E-B68B-35F14DEE52B8.png

5406CE42-401E-43FF-8E60-6CDAB97E0DB0.png

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Really hope that storm can pull north and west.  Obviously, it's early, but would be depressing to see it miss south and east.  But...I know the drill.

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GFS verbatim show a possible strong pre-Santa Clipper that might "balk" going further once it gets to coast, bringing cold and wintery to much of the C-N part of the region. 

The look just beyond is incredibly intriguing, but we'll hold off on that, for now (and get past the week prior mudfest) . 

At least we're not in a dull and cold, non stormy pattern. 

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On 12/6/2018 at 11:42 AM, Poconosnow said:

Busiest travel time of the year is just about two weeks away. 

Christmas falls on a Tuesday this year so the weekend prior will most definitely be a highly traveled few days. 

There appears to be a possibility that there could be a disturbance to monitor. 

A few organic signals key in on the period between the 22-26th

the BSR

96A543B4-EE6F-414E-A083-235CDA3417CE.gif.2e0a72db246b33a6fcb95743b6c41d3f.gif

Depiction: A GOM low pressure rises up on the westward side of the apps into a cold HP which forces it’s transfer to the coast south of Delmarva 

here is the current 32kNam analysis and forecast of the transfer seen on the bsr 

8E8EE0DE-2AF7-4CDB-AEDA-18DD6CF5FE22.thumb.gif.eb88c5e81a4678f1b9192d73e77caefc.gif

East asia rule needs to be looked in a long range forecast so it’s very volatile in nature

Can only surmise a few things:

CDD59352-769C-44EF-B16D-B26759FA1B32.thumb.png.c170ed0b6eb1db3037a421e8325765c9.pngCFDB236C-F5FE-4238-BDA0-F3E01327B52F.thumb.png.3a31e51f4e173398b74467eb3e8323b5.png

last few gfs runs have a trough moving over Japan on the 19th which would be a short 6 day correlation to the east coast of the US.  Also a strong southern jet steak is being amplified by a nothern injection from a split flow.

Interestingly enough there appears to be a possible typhoon in the region.  If true it will aid in dropping heights from its latent heat production.

the MJO is forecasted to be entering phase 4 during the lead up to this period.

DF18C4D9-A4DB-49A1-99EB-7D848D04B209.gif.864b09c7fecf315c1b063a7f01ca1ed8.gif

Phase 4 and 5 during an El Niño or neutral conditions is not favorable for negative anomalous 500mb geopotential heights.  Composite:

33D887A6-EA77-499F-8DE8-A3C423D975DE.thumb.png.2baf52fdd9813b5d91db632167609c68.png

All the same, we must consider the Mjo and enso state in such long range depictions. 

Among other signals The SOI had a sharp increase towards the end of November which resulted in an ~10pts rise around Nov 28th.  

EABE0FD3-4B57-4A24-8646-24623E1EC629.thumb.jpeg.c628166022174578eed8c2dd49f23812.jpeg39E5AD3F-5E2A-4366-A13C-1BCD8AF7F94A.thumb.jpeg.8046d97f0611d9af66e7acec75bbedef.jpeg

The resultant composite posted in the long range Winter thread by @jdrenkenwould be valid Dec 23rd. 

Finally in the face of some positive storm signals but also some possible warmers tempature signals we must consider the affects of a 3-4 week lag on the eastern US from a wave 2 stratospheric warming which occurred in the last week of November. 

Here was the time series plot from Jma of wave total and zonal strat temperatures along with the final look of the displacement on Nov 290840A6F3-A699-4361-B9A2-FB603BBBF35D.gif.ec8b5a6f10c745bd399dfd7adfb615f3.gif03E04A4B-2D2C-4A99-9F00-5CA61F666287.thumb.png.61c1e3d5b4071eef2e110d5bbc5e97a6.png

 

Numerical model predictions:

current 0z cfs for Dec 25th

C0BED414-8D05-4B76-BF0B-14D38EA91F32.thumb.png.f72dbfcdb099c65ea222f83baff493ce.png

also @StretchCT posted a shot of the long range Euro for around Christmas in the Long range winter thread. 

85C8BEBD-58B7-4B02-BD50-1D62090A2D5F.thumb.jpeg.93efd24ca9a8f7a65ae6b0b507f238d2.jpeg

 

A volatile December temperature wise seems to be upon us.  A hugely +epo should be crashing just prior to Christmas 

0EC49E7A-60FD-4A19-929A-9EDF8A0712EF.thumb.png.8d1c5b8eaf50da4937d04afb4fad0673.png

couple that with the lagged effect of the wave 2 stratospheric displacement over the northeast US and we have the makings of some large temperature swings possible entering the the last week of December.  Volatility breeds storms so it’s best to keep an eye out for the huge travel weekend leading up to Christmas and the day following. 

A Happy and Safe Holiday to all! 🎅 

Really enjoyed the write up. Informative and detailed. Thank you. 

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12.9.18.ESRL.Teles_LI.jpg

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8 hours ago, mbaer1970 said:

12.9.18.ESRL.Teles_LI.jpg

Yes... Teleconnections look very good at this time frame. Also NAO and EPO are in transition, which further indicate the potential for a hit. 

The EPO and PNA also indicate the distinct possibility of a large baroclynic gradient setting up, with forcing up the EC. 

Furthermore, the AO looks to be around - 1 SD which would indicate that the cold would not be overwhelming and thus unlikely to cause surpression (See chart below). Likewise, keep in mind all of these predictions are still model forecasts and subject to change being 14 days out. 

Screenshot_20181209-224134_Chrome.jpg

Edited by Uscg ast
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6z gfs

E992D2FF-482D-4B57-BE8D-3EA84A2742FF.png.c517992cbdbad84021a402131cceadc5.png

0z eps control taking a disturbance in the western gulf, hitching it to a Colorado low and sending it on the west side of Superior   

0E8BB14D-89DF-4781-B6E6-1164860FCBBC.thumb.png.69c2d83baf58d9af1a3e684a223c6bf2.png

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

6z gfs

E992D2FF-482D-4B57-BE8D-3EA84A2742FF.png.c517992cbdbad84021a402131cceadc5.png

0z eps control taking a disturbance in the western gulf, hitching it to a Colorado low and sending it on the west side of Superior   

0E8BB14D-89DF-4781-B6E6-1164860FCBBC.thumb.png.69c2d83baf58d9af1a3e684a223c6bf2.png

Was just going to post this. Sooooo far out though.

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Still something there

 

EPS

image.thumb.png.b24158bb890b99302d83240d9e6bcf8f.png

FV3

image.png.ba45c183e54656b7b0b93bbec569acbe.png

 

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Nice to see a big storm in this timeframe... that’s the main ingredient and the details will be sorted out in the coming days who gets what and where and we all know the GFS has a Southeast bias .. exciting however to track a storm potential just befor Christmas! Good luck everyone!

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1 hour ago, Jblizz68 said:

Nice to see a big storm in this timeframe... that’s the main ingredient and the details will be sorted out in the coming days who gets what and where and we all know the GFS has a Southeast bias .. exciting however to track a storm potential just befor Christmas! Good luck everyone!

Gfs has a southern bias? 🤔

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Looks like models are starting to signal a colder solution for the Eastern US. Heard something about it this morning on a local station. Hmmm

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I have a question pertaining to the GFS 6z.... long time acculurker enthusiastic about weather but not all that experienced in analyzing.. my question is why it’s showing rain north and west of the low center with that 540 line where it is on the map ? Is there a lack of high pressure to the north ? Learning as I go along and appreciate everyone’s input ..thanks 

I have learned much over the years from many of you and appreciate the knowledge and expertise given on this thread .. was bummed when it was offline .. I peeked over on American but only stayed signed up for this forum lol 😂 

Edited by Jblizz68

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23 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Looks like models are starting to signal a colder solution for the Eastern US. Heard something about it this morning on a local station. Hmmm

Yea it sure is.  Pretty strong storm signal(s) around the  Xmas time frame. Time to buckle up  😁

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Not sure if this is the same storm or one right after on the 26th but :classic_biggrin:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_58.png

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Looks like on either side of the 25th storm potentials exist.  Merge them into one big one for the 25th.  Perfect!!!!

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EPS with two lesser chances in the period (keep in mind 0z on the 26th is still the 25th).  First storm gives upstate NY and Mass north a couple of inches. Dusting to inch elsewhere.  Second gives a coating to an inch for all but the southern Delmarva and coastal VA/NC

graphic.aspx?mt=00&hr=264&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mod=ecmwfa1ec&map=conus&gv0=C&mv8=scheme:white&lev=&UID=mslpthkpcp_white&cap=

graphic.aspx?mt=00&hr=336&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mod=ecmwfa1ec&map=conus&gv0=C&mv8=scheme:white&lev=&UID=mslpthkpcp_white&cap=

graphic.aspx?mt=00&hr=342&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mod=ecmwfa1ec&map=conus&gv0=C&mv8=scheme:white&lev=&UID=mslpthkpcp_white&cap=

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FV3 read my mind lol 😂 now that’s much better!! 

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Well I mean if this winter wants to keep pace with '02-'03...it needs to deliver two monster noreasters christmas week, including one christmas eve/day...

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