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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Poconosnow

December 23-25, 2018 | Christmas Light Snow

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38 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Well of course, but the whole point of being here is to talk about it in the leadtime

That's not the point of my post as it pertains to the organization of the threads.

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50 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

What, you're saying this isn't sure thing? :classic_laugh:

Not saying that at all. Earlier this month there was thread hijacking done due to confusion of what storm was for what thread.

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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Haha hey relax.  So far I’m batting .1000 with my towel throwing.  1 for 1 

Okay, the math geek in me has to correct this.  .1000 is batting 1 out of ten.  Batting a thousand is 1.000.

:classic_smile:

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5 hours ago, jdrenken said:

Tried and true...

When there's a warm up in the winter, look out for what's behind it!

:ditto: (am I the only one who notices that this little dude does not know how to spell?) :classic_ninja:

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LOL - our forum has both grammar and math "Nazis" 

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

Okay, the math geek in me has to correct this.  .1000 is batting 1 out of ten.  Batting a thousand is 1.000.

:classic_smile:

 

Just now, UTSwiinii said:

:ditto: (am I the only one who notices that this little dude does not know how to spell?) :classic_ninja:

 

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I guess I'd better cool it or risk a scolding for being OT. 

To that point, I'm going to be pretty tolerant of OT stuff when we're still 10+ days out. But as we draw in on time, so too will I (we) on "allowance" (in the obsx thread, I tend to go ZT depending on the impact of said storm) :police-smiley-emoticon: :classic_wink::classic_biggrin:

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Okay, the math geek in me has to correct this.  .1000 is batting 1 out of ten.  Batting a thousand is 1.000.

:classic_smile:

He was reading his breathalyzer

 

image.png

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The euro takes a Southern stream system and squashed it while focusing on a clipper. Goes from 1002mb in Western MI to 981mb on the Northern border of NY & VT on the 22nd.

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6z GEFS showing a very strong storm signal.  Will post images in a few 

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Most falls in mid Atlantic near Xmas time 

3F25B6BD-8D94-4FE3-82DD-CE2820A39882.png

4C8B2315-56A6-460C-90E7-792297F9E6DA.png

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Euro control w a coastal scraper on Xmas day

A6565CE6-97D9-4A63-82AD-6549E779FBB8.png

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  • Wow! 2

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This would be perfect. Enough to scare my family into staying home, not enough to cause too many other problems.  

1093437730_12-130zepschristmasday.thumb.png.114f569891c41d235172e20061657f47.png

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14 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

Still there on the GFS. With a bit of a late transfer.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

Yes indeed, it’s very encouraging that the gfs is showing this signal on almost every run now.  One thing I always worry about with these “Miller B” type systems is the dreaded late transfer rip off zone.   There’s always a rip off zone where the transfer occurs as it starts to deepen and rip up the NE coast.  We’d like to see that northern energy dive further south before the hand off to the coast.  Otherwise it’s primarily a heavy snow event for New England, but not always. 

7222FD5C-1889-414F-94AD-5A9332ED31FC.jpeg

Edited by PA road DAWG
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The trend has been to dive the northern energy in quicker, and pump the heights out in front. Something to keep an eye on as we go forward in time 

CBB2DEC8-362C-499C-957F-23F30938881D.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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Just don't think the cold will be in place for a snow event before or during xmas in the MA.  The way the pattern has been this December.  The snow has either been north or south of PA.  BY the time to cold gets here the precip is all gone.  This is showing up on all the models so far.  I would go all in that any precip that falls as snow will be in NE.     

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12z euro run looks strange.  Energy enters N Ca hr 96

Spoiler

ecmwfued---conus-96-C-500vor2.thumb.png.6eca64c4a4ab12381ccaca038620df21.png

Heads to Texas which is normal

Spoiler

ecmwfued---conus-150-C-500vor2.thumb.png.9a2d318752d8ea1b146f9b64ca5ea729.png

But then decides it wants to check out the Caribbean and goes off the map

 

Spoiler

ecmwfued---conus-192-C-500vor2.thumb.png.427b27092bf51896aaa091b5746c9ebb.png

BTW - great look for the NE on the 21st.  Not showing on surface yet but nice neg trough with a lot of energy.

By hr 240, its looking like its out to sea, but time it right with the energy coming in the plains and there is still potential.  That energy by Kansas came in from the PAC NW.  Put that with the energy coming in from Canada and the energy over Florida and what do we call that?

ecmwfued---conus-240-C-500vor2.thumb.png.42e8e001376bf92080f5e1ed4c5827ad.png

Just not sure how much that Kansas energy can dig given 250mb winds. 

Edited by StretchCT

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

12z euro run looks strange.  Energy enters N Ca hr 96

  Hide contents

ecmwfued---conus-96-C-500vor2.thumb.png.6eca64c4a4ab12381ccaca038620df21.png

Heads to Texas which is normal

  Hide contents

ecmwfued---conus-150-C-500vor2.thumb.png.9a2d318752d8ea1b146f9b64ca5ea729.png

But then decides it wants to check out the Caribbean and goes off the map

 

  Hide contents

ecmwfued---conus-192-C-500vor2.thumb.png.427b27092bf51896aaa091b5746c9ebb.png

BTW - great look for the NE on the 21st.  Not showing on surface yet but nice neg trough with a lot of energy.

By hr 240, its looking like its out to sea, but time it right with the energy coming in the plains and there is still potential.  That energy by Kansas came in from the PAC NW.  Put that with the energy coming in from Canada and the energy over Florida and what do we call that?

ecmwfued---conus-240-C-500vor2.thumb.png.42e8e001376bf92080f5e1ed4c5827ad.png

Just not sure how much that Kansas energy can dig given 250mb winds. 

One the last picture you raise a good point.  It certainly looks like it WANTS too. Just not sure if it can or not.  

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4 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

The trend has been to dive the northern energy in quicker, and pump the heights out in front. Something to keep an eye on as we go forward in time 

CBB2DEC8-362C-499C-957F-23F30938881D.png

Don't like that ridge on the east coast 😯

Edited by Winter_warlock

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2 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Don't like that ridge on the east coast 😯

Why not.  Heights are rising 

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