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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

UTSwiinii

December 12-13, 2018 | "Clipper"

Staff Recommended Posts

Prior to the weekend super soaker thread, we have this little critter to worry about. A shortwave ejected from the Rockies and is riding the northern jet rails through the GL's and then out to the coast. Since it starts out on US soil, it's hard to put the clipper moniker on it, but it speeds by and doesn't have a whole lot of moisture within it's bag of tricks. 

Ironically, some modeling has it hitting Pard with more snow than the thread he created - either that, or Pard was NAM'd (lol)

06z 12|12 3K NAM

nam3km_asnow_neus_49.thumb.png.1f7f43ced33e6ce6d051daeaa4de07eb.png

and 12K

namconus_asnow_neus_17.thumb.png.5765a2f78c3d7dcf99611b7ee5fc07fc.png

RGEM - which some say handled the SE snowstorm very well, has this

rgem_asnow_neus_48.thumb.png.b58793c2b70f37b23f7113e25c47dcba.png   

Sure - it will get washed away in short order, but a booker is a booker (1/4" or more of snow) and I'd imagine at least a couple in here will want to discuss it, once it comes about. 

 

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AFDCTP

Quote

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A compact/closed H5 low is projected to weaken as it tracks eastward from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. Model consensus QPF continues to suggest a several hour period of WAA light snow is probable especially over parts of the northwest Alleghenies/higher elevations and could result in a larger coverage of light snow accums (one half inch to 2 inches) by late morning/midday Thursday. This should be just enough for some slippery travel Thursday morning. Confidence (and precip probs) have increased further from the previous early morning fcst package, but still not quite a slam dunk given the slightly weakening system and diffs in the light model QPFs averaging between several hundredths and 0.15 of an inch. Light snow may linger into Thursday afternoon before diminishing/shifting southeast Thursday night. Some freezing drizzle is possible late Thur/Thu night as we lose the layered seeder-feeder mid and upper level clouds.

Source

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Prior to the weekend super soaker thread, we have this little critter to worry about. A shortwave ejected from the Rockies and is riding the northern jet rails through the GL's and then out to the coast. Since it starts out on US soil, it's hard to put the clipper moniker on it, but it speeds by and doesn't have a whole lot of moisture within it's bag of tricks. 

Ironically, some modeling has it hitting Pard with more snow than the thread he created - either that, or Pard was NAM'd (lol)

06z 12|12 3K NAM

nam3km_asnow_neus_49.thumb.png.1f7f43ced33e6ce6d051daeaa4de07eb.png

and 12K

namconus_asnow_neus_17.thumb.png.5765a2f78c3d7dcf99611b7ee5fc07fc.png

RGEM - which some say handled the SE snowstorm very well, has this

rgem_asnow_neus_48.thumb.png.b58793c2b70f37b23f7113e25c47dcba.png   

Sure - it will get washed away in short order, but a booker is a booker (1/4" or more of snow) and I'd imagine at least a couple in here will want to discuss it, once it comes about. 

 

Would be nice to have a little "event" before the buckets of water 💧 that are coming for the weekend. Just when the farm was starting to dry out too.....

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I smell booker potential for me in PA. I usually do well in these type of events although they are minor. I usually end up with the max amount of moisture allotted out of these small events in my micro climate. Too bad it will all be gone with the weekend rain.

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00Z ECMWF:

Wide spread trace to 2 inch amounts, including NW inland from  NYC.

776442282_9-kmECMWFUSASurface3-HourlyNewYorkCitySnowfall60.thumb.png.2b209fc1560792431a4dedac0038322b.png 192432077_9-kmECMWFUSASurface3-HourlyNewYorkSnowfall60.thumb.png.d7d45ab48171f035020c83dec6c9fea4.png

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

 

12z NAM

namconus_asnow_neus_25.png

Very nice.

If it holds that will make some people happier.

Amounts look similar to the ECMWF.

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3k nam, while putting the same types of accumulation spreads it out over time and makes it look more like a snow shower event than anything else. 

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It looks like this clipper like energy will help lift northeastward a weak area of low pressure located offshore near the North Carolina coast. As it tracks to the NE, it will start to create its weak precipitation shield, and some of that, maybe a few bands, be thrown towards the NW NJ, SE NY and SW CT area and enhance the precipitation that comes from western NY state.

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Local mets here calling for a "light dusting" possible tonight into tomorrow morning. Oh well, something to look at, and at least it's not rain. I'm excitedly awaiting the weekend rain fest...because it there's one thing we need more of here, it's RAIN!:Thunderstorms:

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Not sure if this is from the system this thread references but I picked up an inch of light fluffy snow over the last 16 hours.  Started at 8 pm last night and ended around noon today.  It was just enough snow to whiten the existing snow pack.

Currently 19° and sunny.

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It's not but that very localized event (some fell in the snow belt of PA overnight as well) and is complete "bonus snow. :) 

HWO from AFDCTP

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1 hour ago, RobBucksPA said:

I'll buy milk and bread on the way home...

its sold out already

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EPAWA says there is still a chance :classic_laugh:

snowmap12-12-2018.png

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

21z hrrr looks sad. Charlie Brown Storm.

a316a382-7014-4007-a135-2a7f2beff19b.gif

 

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Tasty squirrels!

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
826 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018
Quote

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A quick moving low pressure system poses a moderate to high
potential for a light accumulating snowfall across interior portions
of northeastern New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and Southwestern
Connecticut Thursday morning into afternoon. 1 to 2 inches of
snowfall is likely in this area. There is a low potential for
locally 2 to 4 inches of snow. Hazardous travel conditions are likely
Thursday morning into afternoon in this area.

Along the coast, including the NYC/NJ metro, light snow Thursday
morning will transition to rain from southeast to northwest later
Thursday morning into early afternoon, with a low to moderate
potential for a light snow accumulation before changeover to rain. A
dusting to around an inch of snow is likely before a changeover to
rain for the NYC/NJ metro and northwestern Long Island. Hazardous
travel conditions are possible in this area, particularly away from
the south coasts. Meanwhile, eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut may see little to no snow accumulation.

Timing and location of heaviest precip, timing of onset of snowfall,
and timing of changeover from snow to rain are still a bit uncertain.
This makes for an overall low to moderate confidence snowfall
forecast at this time. Increasing clarity will likely not be until
early Thursday morning as precipitation begins to develop into the
region.

 

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Surprised to see our local met use several maps for comparison:

1831597462_LocalMetCall.jpg.93a1c469fdbb13c96f761d67d088563a.jpg

Go to: ABC27Weather, click on video, maps show at 1:43

Spoiler

&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Forecast on track Thursday with light snow accumulations of 0.5
to ~2 inches are most likely along and to the north of the I-80
corridor with the highest amounts on the ridges. A coating to
0.5 inch is forecast between I-80 and the PA Turnpike with
little to no accumulation over the far southern tier west of
I-70 and south of US-30 to the MD line. The timing of the snow
will impact the Thursday morning commute with some minor travel
disruptions and slow downs expected. Very light snow may linger
into Thursday afternoon before transitioning to patchy
drizzle/freezing drizzle Thursday night.

AFD

I was out putting up Christmas lights and listening to the local NWR down in the shed and heard 'bout the rain showers that show on Clapper's previous animated gif. SMH, I gotta be out in the morning and it's gonna be just enough to make driving miserable watchin' out for others.

 

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Thanks lynnie!

Just finished watching the 11pm news and all those maps are showing 0.0 for the Burg except for the NAM it's still at 0.2. I'm heading for bed, goodnight.

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Could be a fun little surprise event, I'm excited with basically no flakes since the November Snowstorm.

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11 hours ago, JDClapper said:

21z hrrr looks sad. Charlie Brown Storm.

a316a382-7014-4007-a135-2a7f2beff19b.gif

 

aradar.thumb.PNG.cfd5f9640bbfc7f8bca1f5e63a6704eb.PNG

 

Capture.PNG.0982ae8b38733e74bebf3f2d4cbe8919.PNG

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40 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

 

aradar.thumb.PNG.cfd5f9640bbfc7f8bca1f5e63a6704eb.PNG

 

Capture.PNG.0982ae8b38733e74bebf3f2d4cbe8919.PNG

The thought was right on the "blob" of precip. Looks like its coming in north by 80-100 miles. That's quite a shift.

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Pretty decent area of snow.

Later on in the day, that area should get farther south into northeastern NJ, SE NY and western CT.

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD_BGM_N0Q.20181213_1136.024ani.thumb.gif.9a2af05036f35bf841067fa1ab40683e.gifCODNEXLAB-1km-LongIsland-rad-ani24-201812131130-100-100-20.gif.20e4f7b5c0e85458e2c62dfdad8f47aa.gif

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