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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

ohiobuckeye45

December 23rd-25th Storm

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With the action having substantially lessened it looks like this could be the only energy in town for the potential of a white Christmas. 

 

06z GFS and FV3 

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Edited by ohiobuckeye45

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Respectfully, 2 weeks out - and with the model volatility, don’t buy anything. I think the good news is that it appears cold(er) and more active. 

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3 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Respectfully, 2 weeks out - and with the model volatility, don’t buy anything. I think the good news is that it appears cold(er) and more active. 

Agreed.  Dont think anyone can lock in a snow depth map @324 hours 

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Let’s see what happens. I’ll be checking in on this one. Granted I’ll be in Mexico.

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The potential certainly exists, the ensembles are literally all over creation right now though...

eps_slp_50_east_41.thumb.png.215eeed6f869f234287d45c685ade2ab.pnggefs_slp_ens_east_41.thumb.png.3d9340ebcd73ad2758f95078bcbd2490.png

My gut says this will also end up on the earlier end of the date range. Lots of time to go, but there definitely seems to be something lurking. BSR rule would tend to support something along the lines of member 29 or 31:

18_1223-00.gif.f9c0b9caf7b0031df78d8274bb2d358b.gif

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1 hour ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

snow depth :( 

1.gif

That is sad.  Two weeks of prime "winter" wasted.

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Ive been pretty excited this year for some good systems but looks like im in the 30% probability for a white Christmas. feelsbadman

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Winter in our area basically runs till about the 2nd week of March. We can receive snow in April but not too often and by then not wanted. So of 3 mos.  and change will see if 1/3 of it(Dec) is a swing and miss. Still on track with November snows to hit averages but every snow less Dec.day lessens probability of a 50" + snow year

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From cranky’s write-up this morning (12/13):

There is plenty of support for a potential significant storm system during the "Christmas Week" yet we simply won't have a good handle on that for another 5-7 days. We have multiple sub-patterns switching off their dominance and it'd be impossible to determine just how our jet stream flows may align that week and what disturbances may arrive in those pipelines to develop a storm system. Until proven otherwise you actually hedge towards anticipating one. If thinking wintry spirit I think it'd be more of an Ohio Valley to North East snowfall threat as the Mid-Atlantic would likely be more of a sub-tropical warmer inclusion and thus rain. We'll get to it when it matters.

Edited by Mulaman984
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23 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

From cranky’s write-up this morning (12/13):

There is plenty of support for a potential significant storm system during the "Christmas Week" yet we simply won't have a good handle on that for another 5-7 days. We have multiple sub-patterns switching off their dominance and it'd be impossible to determine just how our jet stream flows may align that week and what disturbances may arrive in those pipelines to develop a storm system. Until proven otherwise you actually hedge towards anticipating one. If thinking wintry spirit I think it'd be more of an Ohio Valley to North East snowfall threat as the Mid-Atlantic would likely be more of a sub-tropical warmer inclusion and thus rain. We'll get to it when it matters.

In the spirit of making bold xmas forecasts, I'd like to continue the discussion by stating I think this will be a GLC with coastal transfer. I agree the mid Atlantic will be too warm.

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1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

In the spirit of making bold xmas forecasts, I'd like to continue the discussion by stating I think this will be a GLC with coastal transfer. I agree the mid Atlantic will be too warm.

I would agree with this until changes occur, a pattern is a pattern until broken and recently we've seen warmish unphased systems during the active periods, and cool dry during the inactive periods

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