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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

ClicheVortex2014

Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

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Yeah, does seem like my mid-upper 50s are being replaced by upper 40s, low 50s in the long range.  Looks like a pinwheel of sorts sets up in Eastern Canada. 

Still nicer than these upper 30s, low 40s I have now. But I think my 6th below normal March in 7 years may still happen. 

And Alaska... wow.  Unbelievable. 

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The next warm up for the east should come when the storm later this week in the SW shoves the warmth east. It'll be similar to before with how Michigan and PA were not advertised to warm up too much, but then Detroit hit 57F and 65F, and Philly got to near 80F. 

CPC has most of the East warm for the 6-10 and 8-14 at high probabilities.

m1MH9u2.png

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Oh I have Sunday circled on my calendar. Forecast is 56 and sunny. Gotta happen. :)

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Several days of NAEFS runs with dark reds in the east vs one GFS run (and an 18Z one at that) that has blues and purples? I mean, nothing is 100% certain, but I'd be pretty shocked if the GFS was victorious here.

Also worth noting is that, yes, when you have a persistent mega-ridge that covers all of Alaska and a large portion of northwest Canada, the odds are against persistent above-normal temps in the eastern US at any time of year. But, as winter continues to fade into spring (aka, the pool of bitterly cold air in the arctic gets smaller), a ridge in Alaska becomes considerably less predictive of a trough in the east. It's the same reasoning as to why the NAO, PNA, EPO, etc tell you much less about US temperatures during the warmer months.

Edited by thedarkestclouds

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1 hour ago, MotownWX said:

And Alaska... wow.  Unbelievable. 

Gee willikars, I wonder what can be causing that year after year in the same place. I'm sure it's just "chance", lol.

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