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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

junior

December 19-21, 2018 | Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

Models just recently showing a more aggressive phasing storm for this period. Cold looks lacking but could be some wintry storm in its cold sector if it holds course.

 

12z EPS 500mb

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

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It's possible that most in our region will need to capitalize on the ever-elusive backside snow band with this one to have any shot at a White Christmas. Not liking our chances, lol

snow1.png

snow2.png

snow3.png

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11 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

It's possible that most in our region will need to capitalize on the ever-elusive backside snow band with this one to have any shot at a White Christmas. Not liking our chances, lol

snow1.png

snow2.png

snow3.png

It's not much but not exactly terrible either.

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Fair amount of ensemble support for something as well:

gefs_slp_stdev_conus_29.thumb.png.6af844f81b6cb40c9af5e972b071760c.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png.6008beb4d62fec7a3baa7cecb61bcbee.png

I'd say it looks about right based on the BSR!

Edited by weather_boy2010

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12z Euro appears colder and deeper but not quite the extent of the GFS but a step in that direction.

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14 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Yes please.

 

gfs_asnow24_ncus_26.png

I sneak into 5" on that one. Just fixed the 4wd in my truck, and got a new generator for black friday.... So I'm assuming the snow shield is now in effect for my vicinity for this winter... sorry neighbors 🤣

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Looking good... only thing I'd like to see is the slowing(or removal but prob won't happen) of the trailing energy so that the storm isn't kicked out so fast and has time to amplify/neg tilt more.

 

Ensembles have huge support for this period.

Edited by junior

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The only wintry precip will be in the NW sector tucked into the slp. Be better if we get more tilt going but stale pacific air is killing this.

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55 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

18z GFS loses much of the snow.

Cant ask for a much better track around here though: 

 

AF174D0E-7563-47FF-B56B-8F1ADE360F4B.png

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