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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

junior

December 19-21, 2018 | Storm

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2 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

ECM still not on board FWIW

It has never been on board for much snows, so has alot of other models except for the small wrap around zones.

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6 hours ago, junior said:

It has never been on board for much snows, so has alot of other models except for the small wrap around zones.

Yeah the wrap around is what I was referencing. GFS has completely given up on it so im chalking this up to another through and through rain storm

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I really think this still has a shot. Very close. 850mb is there, need a little colder 2m Temps & wet bulb.. I think someone sees a wet snow thump with this.

 

FWIW very different setup from last system. Last system was totally cutoff from any northern flow. This one is not...this will come down to timing & 3-4 degrees. Better chance at nighttime in this situation also.

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13 minutes ago, Grace said:

I really think this still has a shot. Very close. 850mb is there, need a little colder 2m Temps & wet bulb.. I think someone sees a wet snow thump with this.

 

FWIW very different setup from last system. Last system was totally cutoff from any northern flow. This one is not...this will come down to timing & 3-4 degrees. Better chance at nighttime in this situation also.

 

Here's what I mean. This is 12z NAM of the last system (top 2 images), & the the upcoming (bottom 2 images). First system cutoff...2nd is not. The northern stream not supplying arctic air but maybe enough in this setup to give heavy wet snow. Have to get closer to system for models to have close accuracy on those thermals.

 

Screenshot_20181217-100556_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181217-100616_Chrome.jpg

20181217_100703.jpg

Screenshot_20181217-100728_Chrome.jpg

 

Question is...how much of this cold air can be pulled into the system in time? But this does have a shot.

 

20181217_101408.jpg

Edited by Grace
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12 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Here's what I mean. This is 12z NAM of the last system (top 2 images), & the the upcoming (bottom 2 images). First system cutoff...2nd is not. The northern stream not supplying arctic air but maybe enough in this setup to give heavy wet snow. Have to get closer to system for models to have close accuracy on those thermals.

 

Screenshot_20181217-100556_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181217-100616_Chrome.jpg

20181217_100703.jpg

Screenshot_20181217-100728_Chrome.jpg

 

Question is...how much of this cold air can be pulled into the system in time? But this does have a shot.

 

20181217_101408.jpg

12z GFS did try to bring some snow back on the west side.

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30 minutes ago, CincySnow said:

12z euro for this date range, no clue on precip types tho: 

 

 

14402AAA-14DC-42F7-965B-D0E9CC72739B.png

Mostly rain but does change to a little mix/snow for east OH as it pulls away.

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July 2018

Door-to-door Salesperson:  Sir, if you give me $20, I can promise you an Apps Runner in late December that will drop 1"+ of QPF.

Hiramite:  Umm, sure!!!  And here's an extra $5 for the heads-up.

 

PS:  Great discussion in the NE/MA thread on this storm.

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5 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

Yeah the wrap around is what I was referencing. GFS has completely given up on it so im chalking this up to another through and through rain storm

Yep starting to look that way!

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FWIW the end of the 18z NAM. Appears to be colder with the 850mb and a few degrees colder at the surface. Maybe a bit colder at 500mb too.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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It will be a beauty on satellite and radar(not so much as you see mostly green) Who knows, maybe this track will repeat later on... We've already seen a similar system before this and although it cutoff, it would have turned out extremely similar to this one if it didnt cut from the flow. The next few weeks looks like SWFE galore although I'm not a fan of looking beyond to weeklies etc.

 

With this storm, since the 850s are cold for snow I could see a snow/rain mix scenario but nothing really sticks till the surface cools down and then perhaps grass accums.

Edited by junior

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From CLE...

Quote

Friday night is the most fascinating portion of this forecast period
as the low departs the area and cold air begins wrapping around it
and into the region. Rain will begin changing over to snow and the
timing will be from west to east, so the Toledo and Findlay areas
may see some snowflakes at sunset, eventually reaching the far east
areas during the overnight. At this point, believe that the
transition will be right to snow and accumulations will hinge on how
quickly sub-freezing temperatures get into the area. Friday night
will be a time period to watch going forward.

 

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I still think this has a chance....mainly east of my area from Northern/Central TENN through Ohio. Ohio is my opinion the best chance for accumulation in OV...unless models trend west some others may. Ohio is a good spot with greatest chances in OV period.

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ECM hinting at something small.

Here we are late December.....we've retraced all the way back to posting about mood flakes :6:

1.png

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18z GFS is a little stronger and west some. Also has a quicker change over to snow especially for central/east OH.

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0z NAM making things a little more interesting. This is part 2 of the double low its been advertising.

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_44.png

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_45.png

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_46.png

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_47.png

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Hoping the trend is OH’s friend.  Latest from CLE...

Quote

By sunset Friday evening, most of the area will have changed over to
snow. It appears there will be some moderate to occasionally
heavier bands of snow during the Friday evening commute into the
overnight hours. Initially the ground temperatures will be warm and
temperatures will be around or just above freezing. This will
initially mitigate snowfall accumulations. Snowfall rates will
eventually heavy enough to eventually start accumulating later in
the evening hours. Winter may be right on cue with a snowy
Winter Solstice which occurs at 5:23 pm EST. The best snow
potential will be between 6 pm and midnight for northern Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania. The snow potential gradually shifts
from synoptic to lake enhanced from midnight Friday night
through Saturday which will continue for the primary snowbelt
areas of far northeast Ohio and north Pennsylvania. Our
confidence is increasing for at least light to moderate snowfall
potential with this weekend`s event. Dusting to one inch
possible area wide across northern Ohio. There is potential for
at least 3 to 5 inches possible for the primary snowbelt areas
by Saturday. Lake effect snow showers will continue into
Saturday afternoon before tapering off Saturday night as winds
shift to more westerly.

 

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CLE has already posted snow maps. But they have such a wide range of totals, best to wait awhile and see if they zero-in better.

in the meantime, WPC has posted their thoughts. Here’s the “1 inch” map. Again, it is trending in the good direction.

 

30570E10-E260-4A63-817D-9C9F764809DA.png

Edited by Hiramite

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FWIW, now trending in the wrong direction...

 

BC5F2C4D-BA5E-4614-B997-B4785AFC6F98.png

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Stayed in the low 40’s all day today. About 5 degrees below forecasted. 41 IMBY now, rain hasn’t started yet.

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