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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

December 31, 2018 - January 1, 2019 | New Year Storm | BSR Signal

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Preface

Hello, posters and lurkers!

Perhaps this thread will inject some optimism in us all and cheer your souls up a bit as I believe we have a decent shot at getting the first real winter storm of the now, official winter season 2018/19.

What has intrigued me and helped me make up my mind was the impressive BSR data for this time frame, as so far there has been no operational model support for this time frame which is about 18 days away.

 

Overall Setup 

1670894052_Jan1-42018StormScenario.thumb.png.9e0f35cdb3611170ba7a299edde6bed0.png

Simply put, as we have seen so far this season many times, the southern stream should be continuing to do its dirty and beneficial work, keeping energy running near the GOMEX to be tapped or let´s say, excited. Meanwhile, the northern stream may be doing some work across the US central plains, and as a result, may be attractive enough to excite the southern stream to perhaps accept to dance a very classical tango. In addition to that, I expect some sort of high-pressure complex to be floating around from north of the central Great Lakes to northeast of Maine, perhaps bridging with the north-central Atlantic ridge and considering that this will be early January, this high-pressure complex should be more robust millibars wise. In short, these players would need to form a smooth orchestra, to translate the BSR depiction into a cold wintry storm. But in case the orchestra fails to be fine-tuned, then the BSR can still verify, but deliver liquid H20 instead.

 


Moving along, please see below the BSR depiction for this time frame; both 500 mb and surface. It´s pretty impressive and should serve as a real good test of this marvelous forecasting tool.

 

Bearing Sea Rule

Surface                                                                                                          500mb

86917196_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.889fde38accbdfe7a7510ddf22884c2f.gif1479149546_Webp.net-gifmaker(2).gif.45d40111b4c0a55e2de6c61fd6a2c2cf.gif

 

This BSR depiction is highly impressive by itself. And if it did not depend on anything else, especially the teleconnections, one could say that a big and powerful storm is coming. But since the weather does not work like this, we will need to take a look at the teleconnections and see if this BSR depiction has an even better chance of actually coming to fruition.

Next, let´s go check on some teleconnections.

 


 

Below, we can take a look at the Dec 17, 20018 00Z EPS 46 days AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA.

AO                                                                                                          EPO

1459754845_AO46.png.06d80d4f3af387a1d39ccc4cdd2e4185.png723589251_epo46.png.40e851c033bce1b596cb8c9dcb7c1e7d.png

NAO                                                                                                                      PNA

1419587454_nao46.png.b8e11c9e2a7efca15fad6583b07564c8.png1023363974_pna46.png.f10c7d78e76728ea2b522f0cfadf392e.png

 

As one interprets the data above, we see:

AO =  ~ 0.3 negative (supportive) :ok-access:

EPO = ~ 0.7 positive (not supportive) [However, not as positive as many instances during the last few weeks] 

NAO = ~ 0.3-0.2 negative, approaching neutrality (supportive) :ok-access:

PNA = ~ 0.3 positive, having just flipped from negative to positive (supportive) :ok-access:

 

All in all, there is teleconnection support for the BSR. The weakened state of the positive EPO should technically prevent a flood of warmer air. Therefore, allow for the presence of cold air to some degree.

The highlight then is the flipping negative PNA to a positive PNA and the weaker positive EPO.

 


 

Let´s see how this one turns out to be.

As the days passe, and more data becomes available, I will be updating this thread opener with more information to give support to the BSR for this time frame, and enrich the depth of the thread.

Hope to see some good ideas and discussions in here from all of you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Aha! I was waiting for this thread! BSR caught my eyes a few days ago but was too busy to make a thread. Now THIS would be a great way to start 2019 :dance2:.

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OK - I'll ask a sincere question. 

Is there an actual storm being discussed here? I see plenty of great discussion of a generally improving pattern - and there is support for such an advent. 

Having said that, where's the storm - when is the storm - what shape is it to take? I've always believed one has to point to a specific event, and not a time period where a storm (or a couple storms) may manifest.  Are we talking about the FV-XXX (see avatar) version of 1/1? The systems showing in the BSR maps which appear to center on later dates?

I, even if I'm alone in this, would appreciate some specificity. Else, this thread is better suited for general pattern discussion. 

Again, I ask this in all sincerity and with no malice nor animus. 

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22 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

OK - I'll ask a sincere question. 

Is there an actual storm being discussed here? I see plenty of great discussion of a generally improving pattern - and there is support for such an advent. 

Having said that, where's the storm - when is the storm - what shape is it to take? I've always believed one has to point to a specific event, and not a time period where a storm (or a couple storms) may manifest.  Are we talking about the FV-XXX (see avatar) version of 1/1? The systems showing in the BSR maps which appear to center on later dates?

I, even if I'm alone in this, would appreciate some specificity. Else, this thread is better suited for general pattern discussion. 

Again, I ask this in all sincerity and with no malice nor animus. 

*might have to adjust dates to include 12/31/18.  

The Gfs and fv3 are both showing a strong STORM signal for this timeframe that also has strOng BSR support. The Fv3 looks almost identical to the bsr and has been showing a monster a few runs now.  Seems like we’ve been down this road many times this winter, hopefully we get one to stick.  The big difference with this one is that it appears cold air will be in place with a 1040+ hp

1D2BD8DD-ED8E-4151-9E43-81327D9F983E.gif

Edited by PA road DAWG
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37 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

*might have to adjust dates to include 12/31/18.  

The Gfs and fv3 are both showing a strong STORM signal for this timeframe that also has strOng BSR support. The Fv3 looks almost identical to the bsr and has been showing a monster a few runs now.  Seems like we’ve been down this road many times this winter, hopefully we get one to stick.  The big difference with this one is that it appears cold air will be in place with a 1040+ hp

1D2BD8DD-ED8E-4151-9E43-81327D9F983E.gif

Do you have the beautiful eye candy map for the 06z fv3 gfs?  😂😂😂.  I think it’s gonna have my area at over 3 feet since I’m supposed to have 12” over the next 10 days.

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17 minutes ago, clindner00 said:

Do you have the beautiful eye candy map for the 06z fv3 gfs?  😂😂😂.  I think it’s gonna have my area at over 3 feet since I’m supposed to have 12” over the next 10 days.

Yesterday’s 18z fv3 run was absolutely ridiculous.  It was showing 40” in spots.  Today’s 6z is much more modest. Don’t get too tied up w those eye candy maps though.  They’ll only lead to heartaches and wet dreams only to be awoken by non reality 

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Meanwhile .. Old Farmers Almanac says it likes this period as well .. lol 

94BD563E-D78E-4397-BFF1-1FEB19E3D276.png

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This is also my bday time frame which I would love some snow right before everyone comes to my PA house for some ATVs, snowboarding and winter fun the weekend after New Years. I support this thread :cheers:

Edited by PA Snow 84
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5 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

*might have to adjust dates to include 12/31/18.  

The Gfs and fv3 are both showing a strong STORM signal for this timeframe that also has strOng BSR support. The Fv3 looks almost identical to the bsr and has been showing a monster a few runs now.  Seems like we’ve been down this road many times this winter, hopefully we get one to stick.  The big difference with this one is that it appears cold air will be in place with a 1040+ hp

1D2BD8DD-ED8E-4151-9E43-81327D9F983E.gif

OK - but I'm still waiting for an answer to my question. Is there a particular storm? If not, then this thread is in peril of being violative of a few guidelines relative to creating threads. 

Obviously (again, LOOK at my avatar) I know there's a storm on the XXX rated GFS-FV, so is that the storm? I'm confused because the BSR signal could be for any of at least two dates within the date range the thread was created with and the thread's title is BSR Signal. Just as obviously, I'm fully aware of the OFM "signals". All I'm asking for is clarity.  

 

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

OK - but I'm still waiting for an answer to my question. Is there a particular storm? If not, then this thread is in peril of being violative of a few guidelines relative to creating threads. 

Obviously (again, LOOK at my avatar) I know there's a storm on the XXX rated GFS-FV, so is that the storm? I'm confused because the BSR signal could be for any of at least two dates within the date range the thread was created with and the thread's title is BSR Signal. Just as obviously, I'm fully aware of the OFM "signals". All I'm asking for is clarity.  

 

Yes.  Gfs and GEFS showing as well. I’m confused as to why you’re confused 

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2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yes.  Gfs and GEFS showing as well. I’m confused as to why you’re confused 

Because there are two storm signaled in the BSR - or did you not view the first post nor my reply?

I'm politely, asking the thread creator to identify which he is wanting to discuss. One storm one thread. not this pick a date range and have it cover it all. Carlos (PV) is among the most picky about that in the past. I'm asking - no I'm flat out telling, PV to chose one and we'll go with it. 

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29 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Because there are two storm signaled in the BSR - or did you not view the first post nor my reply?

I'm politely, asking the thread creator to identify which he is wanting to discuss. One storm one thread. not this pick a date range and have it cover it all. Carlos (PV) is among the most picky about that in the past. I'm asking - no I'm flat out telling, PV to chose one and we'll go with it. 

I agree...if the BSR is showing multiple systems in the timeframe in the title, we need to clarify. Nothing confusing about that aspect.

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6 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

OK - I'll ask a sincere question. 

Is there an actual storm being discussed here? I see plenty of great discussion of a generally improving pattern - and there is support for such an advent. 

Having said that, where's the storm - when is the storm - what shape is it to take? I've always believed one has to point to a specific event, and not a time period where a storm (or a couple storms) may manifest.  Are we talking about the FV-XXX (see avatar) version of 1/1? The systems showing in the BSR maps which appear to center on later dates?

I, even if I'm alone in this, would appreciate some specificity. Else, this thread is better suited for general pattern discussion. 

Again, I ask this in all sincerity and with no malice nor animus. 

Hi @UTSwiinii.

This thread was created for the discussion of the possible storm shown to occur during this time frame between Jan 1st and Jan 3rd shown by a very strong and clear BSR signal shown on the gif images I posted.

To be specific, and halt any confusion,  I will type the storm´s millibars as shown on the BSR images as it tracks towards the east coast. The signal for this thread is the storm on the BSR maps that tracks from western Texas as a 985mb low then a 975 mb low as it reaches eastern Texas, then 961mb over the SE CONUS and then 954mb over eastern Virginia and then 955 mb off the Mid Atlantic coast. On the BSR that storm impacts the region on Jan 2nd and 3rd.

On today´s 12z FV3 GFS, that storm impacts the thread´s region on Jan 1st and 2nd. Track-wise, the signal on the BSR I specified above and the storm on the 12Z FV3 GFS are very close, especially taking into consideration that the BSR depiction cannot be interpreted as a perfect correlation concerning timing, track and strength.

So, I think that the BSR signal being so strong and clear for this time frame, does lend legitimacy to the possible threat, even more so now with the FVxxx showing a storm in this time frame with similar aspects to what is shown on the BSR.

At any rate, I apologize about any confusion caused to you and any others reading this thread.

 

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39 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Because there are two storm signaled in the BSR - or did you not view the first post nor my reply?

I'm politely, asking the thread creator to identify which he is wanting to discuss. One storm one thread. not this pick a date range and have it cover it all. Carlos (PV) is among the most picky about that in the past. I'm asking - no I'm flat out telling, PV to chose one and we'll go with it. 

@UTSwiinii, I hope the post I made a bit before this one, clears the confusion. 

 

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Hi @UTSwiinii.

This thread was created for the discussion of the possible storm shown to occur during this time frame between Jan 1st and Jan 3rd shown by a very strong and clear BSR signal shown on the gif images I posted.

To be specific, and halt any confusion,  I will type the storm´s millibars as shown on the BSR images as it tracks towards the east coast. The signal for this thread is the storm on the BSR maps that tracks from western Texas as a 985mb low then a 975 mb low as it reaches eastern Texas, then 961mb over the SE CONUS and then 954mb over eastern Virginia and then 955 mb off the Mid Atlantic coast. On the BSR that storm impacts the region on Jan 2nd and 3rd.

On today´s 12z FV3 GFS, that storm impacts the thread´s region on Jan 1st and 2nd. Track-wise, the signal on the BSR I specified above and the storm on the 12Z FV3 GFS are very close, especially taking into consideration that the BSR depiction cannot be interpreted as a perfect correlation concerning timing, track and strength.

So, I think that the BSR signal being so strong and clear for this time frame, does lend legitimacy to the possible threat, even more so now with the FVxxx showing a storm in this time frame with similar aspects to what is shown on the BSR.

At any rate, I apologize about any confusion caused to you and any others reading this thread.

 

That is very well and good. I would suggest amending thread date though if that's the case, for none of the CMG showing a storm has it last an entire 4 days span. (see my bolded edit to your reply)

That does not even consider that the CFS has the coastal storm on the 31st (as did at least one previous GFS run, as was posted early in the thread), with a follow up storm (Miller B?) for the 1/3 time period. 

That is why I've asked for clarification - for "housekeeping" purposes and to avoid confusion. 

 

 

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Southeast Ridge is rearing its ugly head after Christmas and into this time on the GFS models.  Not something we want to see in the Mid-Atl.  Doesn't that push all our storms into cutter mode.

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Just now, jrstd1234 said:

Southeast Ridge is rearing its ugly head after Christmas and into this time on the GFS models.  Not something we want to see in the Mid-Atl.  Doesn't that push all our storms into cutter mode.

This timeframe on the GFS is in the 300s, so can pretty much disregard anything it says. Even post-Christmas is at 174 hours. The ridge you are mentioning doesn't appear to be a Southeast ridge either, so it should budge quite easily.

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7 hours ago, BigBen89 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh312-372.gif

Literally puking rain.... :Thunderstorms:

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FV3-GFS at 18z.. Considering this is 300+ hours away, It’s at least encouraging that there’s a consistent storm signal. If that 1040 HP could re-establish itself from last evening’s run, that would be great! Looking at the BSR, it would appear to suggest a track further SE? 

CC335DF9-4BDA-4BB2-96C7-AF087A8312F5.gif

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21 minutes ago, Penn State said:

FV3-GFS at 18z.. Considering this is 300+ hours away, It’s at least encouraging that there’s a consistent storm signal. If that 1040 HP could re-establish itself from last evening’s run, that would be great! Looking at the BSR, it would appear to suggest a track further SE? 

CC335DF9-4BDA-4BB2-96C7-AF087A8312F5.gif

Indeed.

BSR signal tracks the storm through Texas to Georgia to Virginia and then offshore from the Delmarva coast.

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Just put this here...0z GFS (and walks away...)

DC5501A0-5632-453B-9A91-7E9391D94B84.png

Edited by telejunkie
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9 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Just put this here...0z GFS (and walks away...)

DC5501A0-5632-453B-9A91-7E9391D94B84.png

Grasping for straws, were you?

gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh300-300.gif

Edited by BigBen89

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