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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Solstice

December 16-?, 2018 | Atmospheric River | Deep Mountain Snows OBS

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Just a quick look at the GFS is enough to see how much liquid is coming down, and still has to come down for the Pacific Northwest. LOTS of powder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh6-180.thumb.gif.c05ffac8c4402c030cd4a4f4cdb38603.gif

 

Funny how the Seattle AFD casually notes I-90 is closed in both directions...

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Snow is falling at Snoqualmie Pass and I-90 is
closed in both directions near the pass due to snow on the roads
and multiple spinouts.

 

And a look towards the future mentions an atmospheric river.

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A weak ridge of mid/upper level high pressure will help push the
strongest jet energy to the north late tonight and Wednesday,
helping keep precip to more rain/snow showers in the
lowlands/mountains. This ridge looks rather dirty so do not expect
long periods of clearing thru Wednesday evening, and not to
mention the system responsible for the ridge will be moving
quickly towards the region. Another atmospheric river of moisture
looks progged to affect the region Wednesday night and Thursday,
bringing with it what looks to be another round of high wind/wind
advisory headlines. Snow levels ramp back up towards 5000ft so
snow concerns are not high at the moment. As the system passes
through the day, snow levels will then drop significantly to
below 2000ft but precip will wane noticeably.

 

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Confirmed Tornado in Washington State near Seattle!

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More rain and snow tonight and Thurs

WeatherStory2.png

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...storms are 'lining' up in the NE Pacific...strong surge of moisture directed and US/Canada border will pound the NorthWest with wind, rain and snows...storm in the Gulf of Alaska looks even more ominous...this one will bear watching as it comes down...

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Wild 24 hours coming up, very strong winds with this system especially along the coast.

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After a brief lightening of the precipitation in the northwestern U.S., a surface low approaches on Wednesday night and Thursday, increasing precipitation chances again as a cold front moves quickly through the region. The higher elevations of the Cascades could see 12 to 18 inches of snow, and the Northern Rockies are expecting 6 to 10 inches of snow. Precipitation will remain rain at lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, strong winds are expected for the Northern/Central Rockies and Plains through Wednesday night, and High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect.

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Seattle area

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 200007
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
407 PM PST Wed Dec 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A strong frontal system will bring precipitation and
windy conditions tonight and Thursday. A few showers possible on
Friday and Saturday but many areas may see a bit of a break. A
second frontal system will bring another round of rain and wind
Saturday night and Sunday. Showers may continue on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A strong frontal system
will move through the area tonight and Thursday. Models continue
to advertise high winds across a good portion of the area,
especially along the coast, north interior, and around the Puget
Sound. Won`t be out of the question to see a few gusts of 65 mph
along the coast and shorelines. High wind warning in effect for
these areas. Elsewhere, have issued a wind advisory for southwest
interior, east Puget Sound lowlands, and eastern Strait where
gusts of 45-55 mph are possible. Not expecting a prolonged event
but several hours of strong winds will likely be enough to cause
power outages and tree damage. Winds will ease Thursday night
into early Friday as system exits. See NPWSEW for the latest
information. Combination of these winds, high tides, and low
pressure will likely result in coastal flooding along the Pacific
coastline as well. See marine discussion below.

In addition to the winds, light to moderate rainfall is expected
over the lowlands. Skokomish River will remain in flood (see
hydrology discussion below), but otherwise no other flooding
concerns. Snow levels are also a bit tricky as models have
struggled lately in this regards. Snow levels tonight into early
Thursday will be around 3500-4500 feet as precipitation moves in
before rising above 5000 feet Thursday as warm moisture surge
invades. May be brief period tonight with accumulating snow at
Stevens Pass, Mt Baker and other locations above 4000 feet tonight
so have issued a winter weather advisory to cover. Snoqualmie
Pass may be on the fringe so can`t rule out an inch or two of
accumulation there. Minor travel impacts expected.

Things will begin to wind down Thursday night into Friday behind
the front. A few showers will linger Friday but only expecting
light accumulations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A quick moving shortwave
trough will carry moisture into Washington Friday night into
Saturday. At this point, doesn`t look like shower coverage
will be widespread with light accumulations. Next strong Pacific
storm system arrives right on its heels Saturday night into
Sunday. Looks like another round of rain, mountain snow and strong
winds. Models continue to disagree on the track of the low and
subsequent details so will be something to watch heading into the
weekend. Showers will likely continue on Monday and Tuesday,
though of lesser intensity.

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...The air mass is moist and stable with increasing
southwest flow aloft. Conditions are mainly VFR tonight and will
deteriorate to MVFR late tonight through Thursday.

A strong frontal system offshore will move through the coastal
areas midday and through the interior of Western Washington
Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this low, expect low level wind shear
to develop at the Puget Sound terminals and at KHQM as flow aloft
increases from the south and low level flow remains easterly.
Expect mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings ahead of the front and MVFR
conditions with and behind the front. Near surface winds are
expected to increase to 25 to 35 kt with a few gusts to 50 kt
ahead of the front along the coast and with/behind the front in
the interior from about Everett southward. Albrecht

KSEA...Mid and high clouds today will overnight as rain develops.
east winds 5 to 15 kt. LLWS will develop around 11Z as winds at
2000 ft become southerly around 45kt. Expect a period of wind
18Z-00Z 18030G50kt with and behind FROPA with wind turning SW and
diminishing after 00Z. Albrecht

&&

.MARINE...A strong frontal system associated with a 980 mb low
that will move onto central Vancouver Island will pass through the
waters on Thursday. This front will bring storm force southerly
winds to the Coastal Waters on Thursday. Storm force westerly
winds are expected behind the front late Thu afternoon and Thu
evening through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. High end gale force
winds are expected over the remaining waters.

Expect seas over the coastal waters to rise to 22-28 ft Thursday.
The high seas combined with high astronomical tides, low
pressures, and strong Southerly winds will result in coastal
flooding around high tide along the Pacific coast with some low
lying areas on the beaches and around Grays Harbor seeing 1-3 ft
inundation around the midday high tide. Shorelines over the
northern half of the inland waters will see water levels rise to
up to a foot above the amount that normally produces some
flooding. Coastal flood warnings are in effect for the Pacific
coastline and advisories are in effect for the period around high
tide in the northern portion of the inland waters.

There will be a relative lull Friday then a second strong frontal
system will move through the area Friday night and Saturday with
another round of gales possible over the coastal waters. Albrecht

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flooding continues on the Skokomish river in Mason
County. Another round of heavy rain tonight and Thursday will drive
the river to rise once again tonight and crest on Thursday, going
back above moderate stage.

Flooding on other rivers is unlikely over the next seven days.
Bower

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday for Admiralty
     Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
     Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-San Juan County-
     Seattle and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-
     Western Whatcom County.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Thursday for Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-
     Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for East Puget
     Sound Lowlands-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Southwest
     Interior.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM PST Thursday for
     Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett
     and Vicinity-San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western
     Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

     High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Thursday for Central
     Coast-North Coast.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for Central
     Coast-North Coast.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Coast-North Coast.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM PST Thursday for Eastern Strait
     of Juan de Fuca.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 4 PM PST Thursday for
     Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Storm Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Storm Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday for
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday for Admiralty Inlet.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Puget
     Sound and Hood Canal.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for Puget Sound and
     Hood Canal.

 

Posted some images on yesterdays EF-2 tornado in Post Orchard

 

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