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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

telejunkie

December 27-28, 2018 | WAA — Cold Front

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 Thought I may as well open up a thread to discuss this one...looks to be a western Lakes cutter that could deliver a significant winter storm for a portion of the northern plains into far northern Lakes region as it exits the Rockies and the s/w quickly tilts negative. There may be some downstream help in the form of a -NAO and a ULL to our north that could suppress heights enough so it won't torch us (per FV3 & GFS), but the stronger the storm (per Euro & CMC), the more height rise out in front...the warmer we get. There maybe some form of a wintry mix to rain for those of us in the north. For most in the region, this will just be a WAA rain event followed by a dry cold frontal passage on the 27-28th (pretty much a yawner), but in case something interesting happens, may as well have somewhere to talk about...and this also could set the stage for the New Year's period...so could be a big part of that solution.

See spoiler for latest model's renditions of the event as it matures in the middle of the country....

Spoiler

142644112_ScreenShot2018-12-19at11_39_04AM.png.344b52fa73523c4581f3b9ec1b3b9cd5.png1101527976_ScreenShot2018-12-19at11_39_22AM.png.688cbe5be0ca702658516896d86426e1.png

Spoiler

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-12-19 at 11.38.08 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-12-19 at 11.37.54 AM.png

 

 

Edited by telejunkie
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@mainiac you maybe alone in this thread....:classic_tongue:

1823740905_ScreenShot2018-12-19at12_48_27PM.png.6649954e854932d5bc6435a3a942342f.png

Edited by telejunkie
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I noticed that this 12Z ECMWF run has been coming in much colder overall. Could be colder run as a whole.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

I noticed that this 12Z ECMWF run has been coming in much colder overall. Could be colder run as a whole.

 

 

There's a lot of noise in the models, leading to some wildly divergent setups both in Hudson Bay region and the Atlantic as this storm exits the Rockies. 12z Euro explodes the Christmas storm in the Atlantic which has its ramifications, not allowing heights to rise as much. No matter what, there is still a long way to go to resolve this one...but feel pretty good that Colorado & Nebraska up through maybe Minnesota may get a good snowstorm from this one...

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Just now, telejunkie said:

Nice CAD setup on GFS....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180-216.gif.f8afaedc7ad126fdc8f10d1cf58283be.gif

Front-end hit there.

Looks like a wintry mix fest. All kinds of frozen precipitation.

Sounds fun after a pouring rain event.

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6 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Front-end hit there.

Looks like a wintry mix fest. All kinds of frozen precipitation.

Sounds fun after a pouring rain event.

Still early...Canadian not so impressed with the cold...

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180-222.gif

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A lot rides on that HP..

Could be a recipe for ice if the HP trends a little west or is slower to move out..

Obviously plenty of time for change..

Several GEFS members hinting at a transfer..

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

fv3p_T2m_neus_31.png

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12Z FV3 is colder than the GFS.

Nice front-end hit. Snow is the main variety of frozen on the FV3.

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Better HP placement on the 18z FV3

Forces 2ndry development off the coast, HP locks in the cold at the surface..

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30 (1).png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_33.png

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GFS says I may need to rename thread title...maybe not just caribou north....

B1875EC6-8106-4CAC-840F-2049C8BF0AA9.gif

Edited by telejunkie
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Hadn't seen this posted.

hazards_d3_7_contours.thumb.png.faaa8f05f87d7c9b3933be3587b7e047.png

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This will be the event that makes this yet another wetter than average month. Man, do I hate cutters--I was looking forward to taking walks in the country near my sister's house next weekend, but the weather appears to have kayoed that plan. I would take weeks of suppression if there were no cutters involved. Compared to cutters, I would take dryness--as long as there aren't weeks of bare ground.

Edited by bobbo428
grammatical error--boy am I a hypocrite

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NWS in Albany now sez 60% change of snow Thursday night. I'll have to watch this one closely as I have plans to be out and about that night.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.70318000000003&lon=-73.92711999999995

Thursday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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11 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

NWS in Albany now sez 60% change of snow Thursday night. I'll have to watch this one closely as I have plans to be out and about that night.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.70318000000003&lon=-73.92711999999995

Thursday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Yeah...the threat of a mixed bag that night is pretty strong...not sure about just snow though, thinking we'll see sleet/fzr make it way into the wording in the next day or two. This one is trending warmer from where I'm sitting with Euro looking quite warm aloft...but have no clue what surface temps look like.

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Check out the snow trends on the GFS back in Nebraska for this one...just getting a less and less wintry overall look

gfs_asnow_us_fh102_trend.gif

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90 percent chance of umbrella and 10 percent chance of ping--no surprises for us. If it has to trend warmer, I hope we can get a rerun of this past Friday, when temperatures overperformed but rainfall (for once) underperformed.

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Just need another 1.8" to beat 2011. I'd give it a better than 50% chance, judging by the model outputs the past couple days.

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1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Just need another 1.8" to beat 2011. I'd give it a better than 50% chance, judging by the model outputs the past couple days.

amen to that, if where not going to get the white stuff lets just go big and break some records 

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Local met saying 50 again here Friday and rain ️ 

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4 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Just need another 1.8" to beat 2011. I'd give it a better than 50% chance, judging by the model outputs the past couple days.

 There will be no suppression with this--I am sure we will be in the bull's eye. A 99 percent chance for Umbrellas and an 80 percent chance of a  wetter-than-normal December. I hate when December has little snow but a lot of rain.

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