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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

telejunkie

December 27-28, 2018 | WAA — Cold Front

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Getting into srefs range. 

Screenshot_20181225-094440_Chrome.jpg.0098cf748ccc324b5a088409779543b9.jpg

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Could be dicey for some , especially just to my east..

Not a fan of ice at all but wouldn't mind a little light glaze over the snowpack lol Hopefully we escape with out much rain or precip all together..

 

zr_acc.us_ne.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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2 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Could be dicey for some , especially just to my east..

Not a fan of ice at all but wouldn't mind a little light glaze over the snowpack lol Hopefully we escape with out much rain or precip all together..

 

zr_acc.us_ne.png

Could be a hairy Friday morning for mountain towns just to my east where CAD can be quite strong.

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Snowfall potential for this time frame from the 12Z ECMWF:

1845246881_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEngland24-hSnowfall90.thumb.png.6f7d522724465a2d36b59521a63c551e.png

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And now the freezing rain threat. Looks quite real for some locations. Many areas could face as per this run, 0.20 to 0.35 inch of ice.

12Z ECMWF 6hour freezing rain:

1870825539_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEnglandFreezingRain6-h66.thumb.png.6db016d9489fcdc2667abca3d60f7170.png783357064_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEnglandFreezingRain6-h72.thumb.png.681d7a4e1bd75ea7133352804ce1de96.png

1339555660_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEnglandFreezingRain6-h78.thumb.png.d094eb6ba3f3b99234d31c20c75b2ca1.png291083593_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEnglandFreezingRain6-h84.thumb.png.895da605367b309b375cce18790baea2.png

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NAM holds that cold across the north fairly strong. MJ looks like only a brief shot of pure rain for you.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh39-57.gif

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I am still hoping that we are in a donut hole for this--we certainly don't need any more umbrella events. Too bad the snow dome doesn't translate into rain events as well. If it can't snow, it may as well be mild. This month has been much like December 2014--cutters, one elevation snowstorm, and 2 weeks straight of overcast. Here we have had the equivalent of 2 days of sunshine from Dec. 10 to now. 

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17 hours ago, telejunkie said:

NAM holds that cold across the north fairly strong. MJ looks like only a brief shot of pure rain for you.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh39-57.gif

I was reading that Sugarloaf had received almost 8 feet of snow this year, but I think most was in November, it just took that one storm to "rain on the parade".  My buddies relatives canceled their ski trip for the week, I imagine they aren't the only ones. Tough break for the ski areas.

I'm down to about 50% snowcover, and any open fields are basically clear. Ponds and lakes are mostly frozen over except the larger, deeper ones.  CAD is usually pretty strong this time of year, but I feel that the lack of snow will allow the surface to scour out a bit sooner. Still expecting frozen at the onset, just hope the dry slot outpaces the changeover.

1594401414_StormTotalSnowWeb(8).thumb.png.fc3d5a01a63905561374c87fc1597e7d.png I think

GYX

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Forecast becomes much more active and complicate very early Fri
morning. The stage is somewhat set up by tonight...as high
clouds will be encroaching from the W. How much they hold off
radiational cooling will affect ptypes in some areas Fri
morning.

If temps cool quickly tonight we have a better chance to keep
precip frozen at the start. Thicker clouds may keep temps on the
warmer side...and lead to a faster transition once precip
starts.

At the very least a very stout high pressure will be in place
today and will be tough to dislodge...despite it retreating to a
position E rather than NE of the forecast area. Strong WAA into
that retreating high will help to force a broad area of precip
that will move into the area very late tonight and early Fri.
Forecast soundings across the area show the column cool enough
for snow just about everywhere at onset. Given the strength of
the LLJ...lift should be enough for light accumulations
everywhere as well. Pretty quickly warmer air aloft will move in
from the W however...and ptypes should transition thru sleet and
freezing rain. My projection is that models are eroding the low
level cold too quickly...so I delayed it by a few hours compared
to hi-res guidance. That does lead to some slightly higher
snowfall totals...but marginal difference in ice
accumulations...as the mixed ptype favored sleet over freezing
rain. Still for a large chunk of the Nrn and Wrn zones the
combination of snow and ice should be enough for some slippery
roads...and I have issued a winter wx advisory for those areas
most at risk. Hi-res probabilistic guidance is showing the best
window for icing across Wrn zones is during the morning
hours...until the late morning...which will likely affect the
morning commute. I could easily see a scenario where models
continue to come in cooler at the surface...and an expansion in
advisory area is possible.

Dry slot aloft moves in during the afternoon...but by then temps
will be warming across much of the Srn and coastal zones. Until
the cold front comes thru we should continue to see WAA type
showers move across the area.

 

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winter weather advisory for parts of ct for Friday morning that's about it  

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HWO for the northern burbs - includes mention of freezing rain, sleet, snow. 
Spoiler

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-280845-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
340 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible late
tonight. Little to no accumulation is expected, but untreated
surfaces could become slick. The precipitation will change to rain
by day break Friday.

 

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Albany's WWA for up to 1" of snow an or 1/10" of ice

Spoiler

510 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-038>040-047>054-058>061-063-084-
272200-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0040.181228T0600Z-181228T1200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Southern Washington-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville,
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Han**VeryBad**, Pittsfield,
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington,
South Egremont, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge,
Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls,
Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown,
Amsterdam, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville,
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson,
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa,
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont,
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge,
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham,
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo,
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock,
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown,
Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls,
and North Easton
510 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze are
  expected with up to one tenth of an inch of ice possible.

* WHERE...The greater Capital District, southern Washington
  County, Mohawk Valley, Herkimer County, Schoharie Valley,
  Helderbergs, eastern Catskills, northern and central Taconics,
  the Berkshires, and Litchfield County.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 AM EST Friday.

BOX WWA for its southern area, for mixed precip under 1" snow and under 1/10" ice.

Spoiler

319 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-009>012-RIZ001-271630-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0030.181228T0800Z-181228T1500Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Blandford,
Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, Foster,
and Smithfield
319 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...A brief period of light snow...sleet and freezing rain.
  Total snow and sleet accumulations less than one inch and ice
  accumulations of a trace to less than one tenth of an inch
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut and just to the
  northwest of the Boston to providence corridor.

* WHEN...A light wintry mix overspreads the region between 3 and
  6 am before changing to all rain by 9 or 10 am.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Untreated roads will be slippery early
  Friday morning and an impact to the morning rush hour is
  expected.

 

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

HWO for the northern burbs - includes mention of freezing rain, sleet, snow. 
  Hide contents


CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-280845-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
340 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible late
tonight. Little to no accumulation is expected, but untreated
surfaces could become slick. The precipitation will change to rain
by day break Friday.

 

yup nothing again if we don't get a pattern change soon and I mean in a week this winter is becoming a bust real fast .

and its looking like nothing through the 5th .

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3 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

yup nothing again if we don't get a pattern change soon and I mean in a week this winter is becoming a bust real fast .

and its looking like nothing through the 5th .

December is bugging me.  It's not as if its been a blowtorch.  My closest airports are +0.6 and +1.6 for the month so far on temps.  And we've had plenty of precip, though most of it in one storm.  We've had moderate events on the 2nd and 16th, while the 21st storm dropped 4".  But only .5" of snow.  

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51 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

December is bugging me.  It's not as if its been a blowtorch.  My closest airports are +0.6 and +1.6 for the month so far on temps.  And we've had plenty of precip, though most of it in one storm.  We've had moderate events on the 2nd and 16th, while the 21st storm dropped 4".  But only .5" of snow.  

i know its crazy I might have to put my snow blower away for the summer :classic_tongue:

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On 12/26/2018 at 1:34 PM, brodoser1 said:

just another rainy Friday :rain-1:

 

Our local met is on it, from video on this page:

1419532888_rainyfridays.png.ee0e222a0a4eb2bddaf4b5930e622203.png

 

ZFP for Cumberland, Dauphin Counties, I'm in Cumb. and looking at 1.02" of rain.

Quote

$$

PAZ063-280900-
Cumberland-
Including the city of Carlisle
415 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

.TONIGHT...Rain. Not as cool with lows in the upper 30s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.
FRIDAY...Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the
afternoon. Not as cool with highs in the upper 50s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
partly cloudy. Mild. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Cooler with highs in the mid 40s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cooler with lows around 30.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

.MONDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
70 percent.

.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Mild. Lows in the lower 40s.
Chance of rain 70 percent.

.NEW YEARS DAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Highs around 50.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Cooler with highs in the upper 30s.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.

.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

$$

PAZ057-280900-
Dauphin-
Including the cities of Harrisburg and Hershey
415 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

.TONIGHT...Rain likely this evening, then rain after midnight.
Not as cool with lows in the upper 30s. Southeast winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.
FRIDAY...Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the
afternoon. Not as cool with highs in the mid 50s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
partly cloudy. Mild. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds 5 to
10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight.

.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Cooler with highs in the mid 40s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cooler with lows around 30.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

.MONDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
70 percent.

.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Mild.
Lows in the lower 40s.

.NEW YEARS DAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Highs in the upper 40s.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Cooler with highs in the upper 30s.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.

.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

$$

 

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34 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

Nice system and another one on Monday 

BEA470C8-6A4A-403D-926C-D23F6913A4EB.jpeg

Our southern stream is gangster this year 

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3 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Our southern stream is gangster this year 

Yeah, to bad no cold, it’s early in the winter season but the long range discussion does not sound good 

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Temp here at 30.9, DP at 11.6 . .not looking forward to driving to umass tomorrow over the Worcester hills (tho the restaurants are amazing in Worcester, MA, any recommendations?)  . . mothers appointment at 10:30 hmm, hopefully roads not too bad

It's chilly tonight!

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11 hours ago, StretchCT said:

December is bugging me.  It's not as if its been a blowtorch.  My closest airports are +0.6 and +1.6 for the month so far on temps.  And we've had plenty of precip, though most of it in one storm.  We've had moderate events on the 2nd and 16th, while the 21st storm dropped 4".  But only .5" of snow.  

Wow—that 0.5 inch is right up our alley—for October.

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You're listening to WXD 777 on the dial, all rain all the time...

  • Haha 3

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20.8°

DP 19.1°

Light snow, a bit colder than I expected this morning, supposed too warm up quick.

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