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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

UTSwiinii

December 30, 2018 | Minor Winter Storm

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Merry Christmas to all.

We've been watching this time period now for a while - the system in wake of the earlier dates cutter, yet independent of the New Years threat. We've seen various versions on as many Operational runs and made side notes in the post NY thread dates. Time to allow it its own space. 

WPC discussion points

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Extended Forecast Discussion...Amended NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 209 PM EST Tue Dec 25 2018 Valid 12Z Fri Dec 28 2018 - 12Z Tue Jan 01 2019

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A blend of the non-06z/non-12z GFS guidance (00z/12z ECMWF, 00z/12z Canadian, and 00z/12z UKMET with the 00z/06z/12z GFS parallel/FV3 as reasonable alternatives) sufficed given the good overall agreement with the systems moving through the West and downstream eastern ridge which maintained good continuity from the previous shift. This accounts for the operational GFS's recent fortnight of inconsistency with systems moving across the north Pacific.

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All the while, front in the Gulf will linger/waver and send a couple low pressure centers along it through the Southeast which will spread some rain over AL/GA/SC/NC but perhaps to the Mason-Dixon line -- likely rain but some elevation snow.

WPC maps

 

Spoiler

D.thumb.PNG.9f9de528878baba9d903e9dfc1ada991.PNG

 

12z Operational maps

Spoiler

B.png.d9a27109191b19971ad012574b2f8da4.png

Spoiler

A.png.e9b22fe7eb97b2d5333e11432ebad9d4.png

 

 

Spoiler

C.thumb.PNG.feee7df80698103195e99857b86ec05c.PNG

Kind of reminds me of the past weekend system at this much lead time. Looks good, ends up, meh for many. One thing I'm interested in is whether the GLC/Fropa situation unfolds to allow for at least a temporary pattern "shift" - a bit of a tall order but worthy of its own discussion. For what happens here, as is always the case, could set up the next threat to some degree. 

 

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ICON (FWIW)

Spoiler

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png.04c5d6c4940d285d2f856ff2434ad352.png

 

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It's also important to mention that as things appear now, we'll be working with "stale" cold air in the main, with some possible bleeding in via a very transient and weak, SHP over N NE (this SHP - verbatim on this run, moves east and corrupts the temp fields with warm air return flow for the next system).  On one hand a "help" to snow lovers - on the other a bit of a "bane". 

f120.thumb.gif.03d1cbadf955b8fdb9c3e152a6f16717.gif

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CTP discussion - suggests this time pd may be the only wintery one for a bit...

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Active weather pattern with several weather systems to account for. Like the weather for the last 6 weeks, plenty of mild air arrives with next storm system Thu into Friday. QPF in the half inch to one inch range. Cooler air behind the system with a fast moving weather system later in the weekend. Enough uncertainty with the all factors, timing, track, cold air, etc to make for a low confidence forecast at this time. In any case, it will likely be a low qpf event. Models all diverge next week with GEFS a bit colder than the EURO which continues established pattern with a warm and wet storm sometime early next week. In any case, no significant cold air any time soon and the long lasting stretch of mild to warm temperatures continues into 2019.

AFDCTP

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Quote

A weak low pressure system will slide by to the south of the region
Saturday night into Sunday. Timing with this system will be
especially important, as temperatures will be marginally supportive
of some wintry precipitation, especially west of the I-95
corridor.

Brief high pressure returns Sunday night into Monday morning, but
another low pressure system looks to track to the west of the area
Monday evening into Tuesday. Timing and location of this system is

very uncertain at this point, but there will again be a low-end
potential for some wintry precipitation, depending on the
timing.

Sterlings mentions low chance wintery precipitation.

 


 
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@UTSwiinii, Merry Christmas and good evening!

To start this thread in a good vibe, please see below the 12Z ECMWF 24 hour snowfall output:

Generally 2-4.

850585279_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined138.thumb.png.5cf58445b70f7b19e08a2c469f8bf815.png

 

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

@UTSwiinii, Merry Christmas and good evening!

To start this thread in a good vibe, please see below the 12Z ECMWF 24 hour snowfall output:

Generally 2-4.

850585279_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined138.thumb.png.5cf58445b70f7b19e08a2c469f8bf815.png

 

 

The 12Z ECMWF seems pretty supportive for a snowfall event for southern SE NY, northern NJ, NE PA, and western CT. It does not look so marginal as far as cold air is concerned. 1000-500mb thickness in and around NYC on this run is around 537 dm while in and around the SE NY area is 534.

1154151279_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceNewEngland6-hPrecip1000-500hPaThickness126.thumb.png.7ad3472794b0dd6a8c6ee369c4eab199.png

850mb temperature is pretty supportive. The 0C isotherm is all the way over southern NJ.

1328254224_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceNewEngland6-hPrecip850hPaTemperature126.thumb.png.f73f1a4922f18fb9cc63d45c06da5858.png442913214_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEngland850hPaTemperature126.thumb.png.7c4966850a7bb09b7d9519ada481141d.png

 

About 50 miles north of NYC, this run shows 2-meter temperatures around 32F or a bit below.

1068885741_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEngland2-mMaximumTemperature120.thumb.png.a28ef8d4541bd1401c7a39c18f84a328.png

 

All in all, as of now I think many people may get a decent little snowfall event for their  New Year festivities!

 

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

 

The 12Z ECMWF seems pretty supportive for a snowfall event for southern SE NY, northern NJ, NE PA, and western CT, does not look so marginal as far as cold air is concerned. 1000-500mb thickness in and around NYC on this run is around 537 dm while in and around the SE NY area is 534.

1154151279_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceNewEngland6-hPrecip1000-500hPaThickness126.thumb.png.7ad3472794b0dd6a8c6ee369c4eab199.png

850mb temperature is pretty supportive. The 0C isotherm is all the way over southern NJ.

1328254224_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceNewEngland6-hPrecip850hPaTemperature126.thumb.png.f73f1a4922f18fb9cc63d45c06da5858.png442913214_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEngland850hPaTemperature126.thumb.png.7c4966850a7bb09b7d9519ada481141d.png

 

About 50 miles north of NYC, this run shows 2-meter temperatures around 32F or a bit below.

1068885741_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNewEngland2-mMaximumTemperature120.thumb.png.a28ef8d4541bd1401c7a39c18f84a328.png

 

All in all, as of snow I think many people may get a decent little snowfall event for their  New Year festivities!

 

The NWS in Albany agrees with this PV via their ALYAFD. Keeping some hope alive. It may not be NEW YEARS EVE, but at least over the New Year's Holiday weekend.

AFDALY

 

Quote

Saturday night into Sunday...High pressure builds in Saturday night
into most of the Sunday based on the WPC Guidance, 12Z GFS, CMC, and
many Ensembles.  However, the 12Z ECMWF and some the GEFS have a
northern stream short-wave moving across the lower Great Lakes
Region trying to phase and tap some moisture from a southern stream
coastal wave near the Mid Atlantic Coast on Sunday.  This would
bring a chance of light snow to most of the region.  Again, there is
a lot of spread in the guidance and we will have to watch to see if
this trend continues.  We placed a slight to low chance of snow
across the forecast area on Sunday, after a mainly dry and cold
Saturday night. Lows will be in the teens and 20s, with a few single
numbers over the southern Adirondacks.  Highs will be slightly below
normal on Sunday with 20s to lower 30s for highs with some teens
over the southern Dacks, and southern Greens.

 

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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2 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

The NWS in Albany agrees with this PV via their ALYAFD. Keeping some hope alive.

AFDALY

 

 

Pretty good.

Seems like a pretty decent shot this one. The northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England may ring in 2019 with possibly a pretty nice light perhaps moderate snowfall.

As you said, keeping the hope alive.

Then we will see what happens  in the Jan 1st to 3rd period.

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00z guidance - some models support lost with the suite as the Euro jumps ship, the UKM not looking any better, the CMC/GFS still naysaying. About the only models that still showed something were FV-XXX and ICON. 

WPC still has the weak system in the Carolinas

Capture.thumb.PNG.4c7d0b4f03c183ce47adbe57ea35b563.PNG

prbww_sn25_DAY5.gif.6b93a8fc590e6635745af6c27c56d80f.gif

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

00z guidance - some models support lost with the suite as the Euro jumps ship, the UKM not looking any better, the CMC/GFS still naysaying. About the only models that still showed something were FV-XXX and ICON. 

WPC still has the weak system in the Carolinas

Capture.thumb.PNG.4c7d0b4f03c183ce47adbe57ea35b563.PNG

prbww_sn25_DAY5.gif.6b93a8fc590e6635745af6c27c56d80f.gif

 

Yea this pattern we’re in is atrocious.  Tough to get any significant system with substance and cold air at the same time.   Other than a few clippers I don’t see any thread worthy systems popping up on these models.  

Edited by PA road DAWG
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UTS,  was there any BSR signal for the 1/8-10 period ? 

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And 12 hours later, the ECMWF does not like his previous idea from 12Z.

Very unfriendly and chaotic spell for the models giving what appear to be changes coming up over North America.

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21 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

UTS,  was there any BSR signal for the 1/8-10 period ? 

Haven't looked TBH, but I believe Renken has some comments on the SOI drop interval (or something along those lines) pointing to those dates. 

Edit - OK - I took a peek and there are storm signals in that date range and beyond. But, I would suggest further discussion should be within the thread for LR Winter. 

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6z FV-3 has a small event.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh96-138.thumb.gif.1f0c8c1627d429523b7b2a3091ed85bc.gif

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50 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

This is just depressing.  One third of meteorologic winter basically done, and it was a dud.  And looking at at least the halfway point to continue to be a dud.  But I'm sure we'll get 2 feet of snow in March, when I certainly don't want it.  Wasting the winter. 

It's been the pattern last decade or so to have warmer and less snowy decembers.  Most of those years we make up for it in Jan and feb so no need to be depressed.  Not as much wasting winter as it's our new norm as of late.

Now it kinda syncs up with the regular callander, which winters only a few days old.

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3 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

It's been the pattern last decade or so to have warmer and less snowy decembers.  Most of those years we make up for it in Jan and feb so no need to be depressed.  Not as much wasting winter as it's our new norm as of late.

Now it kinda syncs up with the regular callander, which winters only a few days old.

Well said. My thoughts exactly.

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10 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

It's been the pattern last decade or so to have warmer and less snowy decembers.  Most of those years we make up for it in Jan and feb so no need to be depressed.  Not as much wasting winter as it's our new norm as of late.

Now it kinda syncs up with the regular callander, which winters only a few days old.

I thought people were saying it doesn't look good through mid-January?  That's halfway through winter.  That's wasting to me.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

This is just depressing.  One third of meteorologic winter basically done, and it was a dud.  And looking at at least the halfway point to continue to be a dud.  But I'm sure we'll get 2 feet of snow in March, when I certainly don't want it.  Wasting the winter. 

Seems like this winter is like 1994-1995 to me.

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14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You guys are bunch of Debbie downers. Lolol. If we are to get a pattern going from mid January on.... All this talk of no winter..no snow until March will be forgotten. I cant wait..lol

I’ll be the first to admit that it does get tiresome after hearing and reading how prime the pattern will be from late November on.  Which as we all know was obviously was not true.  I understand theres a lot of time left in winter, but before you know it two months will have passed without any measurable snow in most locations.   I mean I guess there remains a few opportunities in early January for at least some snow, but I just don’t see anything substantial coming from them. Hopefully the pattern changes in a few weeks and we can get a healthy active southern stream going with at least transient shots of cold with it.  Let’s just wait and see....but as Tom Petty once said....waiting is the hardest part.   Seems like we’re always chasing that 240+ hour monster storm on the models that always seems to just vanish over time. 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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I don't think its a matter of whether we get snow or a ton of snow, its the persistent rain every 5 days that has me worn out, I love being outside, I prefer snow because I ski and do activities in the woods, the wet pattern has the water table so high that I'm basically stranded on pavement, so I'm a little more edgy atm, can really ski, cant cut firewood, cant even do my weekly bon fires.

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Alright guys...let try to keep discussion to the topic at hand. FV3 still showing a moderate hit for the region with a weak Miller B. GFS and Euro have different evolutions although Euro doesn't look too far off from FV3 at hr96, but FV3 allows more energy to emerge from the 4 corners region...thus developing a stronger system.

Pager topper! Ah boxing day...the day my kids get all santamental...

Screen Shot 2018-12-26 at 9.11.01 AM.png

Edited by telejunkie
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43 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Late January to early march is usually the month most people cash in anyways.  I'm still baffled by the attitudes I'm seeing.  Youd swear the whole month of December was 50 degrees.  All in all it wasnt very warm except for 2 days when we were blasted with warmth from cutters.  

The problem is that it wasn't that warm, but there was no snow, and when the ample precipitation did come, it was just warm enough to rain for most of us.  That's just as bad in my opinion.

I think we'll just continue to see storms come in a bring warmer air with them.  Just looks like that is the pattern that we've seen.  Cold, then a system from the South pushes warm in and brings rain.

Edited by Ahoff

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I understand the “wasted” winter comments .. Its a  weather forum where everyone is passionate about weather and big winter storms and it’s boring when there’s nothing to track except rain events ..many here can relate to me when I say when there’s big blizzards like Nemo over Long Island and Connecticut that drops 40” over the ocean and LI sound that is truly “wasted”  knowing there was even a bullseye out over the ocean of even more lol ..and it’s painful to watch .. back on topic .. the models are at least showing something in this time frame and precip types and track will be determined in coming days .. still time on this one! Good luck everyone! 

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