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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

January 4-6, 2019 | Winter Storm | Mid-Atlantic

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Introduction

Hello, posters and lurkers!

Quick opener here.

I have been observing that the Mid-Atlantic has a good chance of getting an interesting storm around the January 3-4th time frame.

There has been off an on operational model support, and EPS support as well as EPS Control support for some runs. And after the Jan 1-2 storm, which looks to be 85% rain, cold air should be invading the region, which may force this wave of low-pressure to take a more eastward path tracking along the cold and warm air boundary.

This setup is at least a decent one for areas of Virginia to get snow, maybe even North Carolina. However, given how the supporting energy behind the developing storm behaves there a chance that the storm may deepen more and track more to the northeast and impact the northern Mid -Atlantic and southern New England.

So, please stay on the lookout for the possibility of snow in Virginia and North Carolina.

but be aware that this is a very volatile situation as changes over North America, may be in the works to bring in a colder period to the north of where the mean zonal flow establishes itself. Expect some model mayhem.

On the next page, we can see some supportive EPS output data.

 


 

Supportive Data

December 25th 12Z EPS Control:

eps_ptype_c01_conus_204.thumb.png.f3181c0dbc4fb1fa187efbce4acbc84a.pngeps_ptype_c01_conus_216.thumb.png.074a67563e0234603ef53e92206210a2.pngeps_ptype_c01_conus_228.thumb.png.12390ad0a5fe1a54035cfbfcdca79ba2.png

 

December 26th 00Z EPS Control:

eps_ptype_c01_conus_216.thumb.png.ae71aee4d371bab5381466bc10de3d4f.pngeps_ptype_c01_conus_228.thumb.png.0720742572678ac1f1ac2e9f824548de.png

 

December 26th 00Z EPS:

1710838660_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined210.thumb.png.ff27e765540bc6b809355bc8bc7106a2.png936412251_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined216.thumb.png.48338a22a10d8ca65a06fc287dfb79f1.png

1919726060_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined222.thumb.png.790adfd4ee05215b0f5d117076c457e5.png459886630_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined228.thumb.png.2e7273cd82b9779bb83addb63e9c76fe.png

 

Please let´s know what you all think!

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Gotta slow these systems down!!!!!

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Hello, posters and lurkers!

Quick opener here.

Will add to it later.

I have been observing that the Mid-Atlantic has a good chance of getting an interesting storm around the January 3-4th time frame.

There has been off an on operational model support, and EPS support as well as EPS Control support.

Please stay on the lookout for the possibility of snow for Virginia and North Carolina.

00Z EPS Control:

eps_ptype_c01_conus_216.thumb.png.ae71aee4d371bab5381466bc10de3d4f.pngeps_ptype_c01_conus_228.thumb.png.0720742572678ac1f1ac2e9f824548de.png

 

00Z EPS:

1710838660_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined210.thumb.png.ff27e765540bc6b809355bc8bc7106a2.png936412251_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined216.thumb.png.48338a22a10d8ca65a06fc287dfb79f1.png

1919726060_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined222.thumb.png.790adfd4ee05215b0f5d117076c457e5.png459886630_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined228.thumb.png.2e7273cd82b9779bb83addb63e9c76fe.png

 

More later!

 

Please let´s know what you all think!

I mentioned, at one point in the prior date threads, that I saw the OFM signal for this date as being the "better" of the lot. 12z Euro likes the time period. The others - not so much. Could be the Euro doing the "grabby" thing (over phasing) but with the OFM support I "think" we have, this one can't be written off. 

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I feel like anything after the new year is fair game, even though their is only limited support at this point.  Probably more of something for the Northeast as a long shot.  I have seen and heard a few predictions/modeling this winter that seem to point towards a pretty relentless cold snap, especially in February.  Something has to start buckling given some future support, and for that the point for this to be "fair game" seems fair :classic_sleep:

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12Z EPS Control also onboard for this time period.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018122612_198_35_149_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018122612_210_35_215_m0.png

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Huh? I didn't know storm re-enactments were catching on. :classic_blink:.

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How come this is a week out and this is the only model that is predicting this? 

 

Im not seeing this anywhere else. 

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The 12Z EPS Control is a beast in the making...

Now that I stopped to look better. Very impressive.

At least this one is not so far out in the future and has been more consistent on the EPS.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.45a520cec4d40a8977a685881858766b.gif

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11 minutes ago, VA-Snow said:

How come this is a week out and this is the only model that is predicting this? 

 

Im not seeing this anywhere else. 

This storm has been evolving on the ECMWF and EPS since yesterday, or about 48 hours or so.

But yeah, mostly on the ECMWF and EPS.

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12 minutes ago, VA-Snow said:

How come this is a week out and this is the only model that is predicting this? 

 

Im not seeing this anywhere else. 

I mean, it's technically happened 51 weeks ago.

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Now that you have taken control of this period from PARD as the thread opener after you split dates, we might have a chance :classic_laugh:

Edit: Thought PARD originally opened this period but it was you. I'll leave the PARD poke though, just because :classic_tongue:

5 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

The 12Z EPS Control is a beast in the making...

Now that I stopped to look better. Very impressive.

At least this one is not so far out in the future and has been more consistent on the EPS.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.45a520cec4d40a8977a685881858766b.gif

 

Edited by PA Snow 84

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If that verifies, there will be many happy posters and lurkers on this forum.

Can you post the other ensembles for comparison? 

 

 

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00Z GFS taking tiny steps towards the ECMWF and its control.

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CMC FWIW, also trending towards a "something" during these dates.

I  have plans on my birthday so that's also a good sign that some wintry weather will be there to impede travel.  This is an organic forecasting method I've been testing for 30 years (I think other January birthdays can relate and lament all those cancelled birthday parties).

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10 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018122612_204_35_149.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018122612_216_485_215.png

I'll believe it when I see it. 

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4 hours ago, ryanduff said:

I'll believe it when I see it. 

Well the track is right.. the temps are not.

ecmwfued---east_coast-210-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.95ea8a365ee001053c85267cde461181.pngecmwfued---east_coast-216-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.5fe09333b652070fe10f6752d1ea7167.png

ecmwfued---east_coast-222-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.2eef0512ea4c29605e639c08a016fa5d.pngecmwfued---east_coast-228-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.f05024ba95d346caa3ee752d10424c77.png

Edited by StretchCT

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American and Canadian models showing a trend towards the EURO's bold output.

GFSFV3.gif

CMC.gif

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Currently tied for second with the least snowiest December on record with a trace.  

4B128DF1-1344-4F37-AEA5-442EC7A80683.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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XXX trend is looking good, not quite there yet though.

fv3p_ref_frzn_us_fh156_trend.gif.0f67093d3661595d2dc6f8b11d385c9d.gif

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FV3

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

GFS - though it has a clipper come through the NE on the 5th.  Anyone want to open a thread on that one too?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Edited by StretchCT

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It's the year of the cutter <singing>  This pattern stinks.

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