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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 4-6, 2019 | Winter Storm | Mid-Atlantic

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2 minutes ago, jrstd1234 said:

It's the year of the cutter <singing>  This pattern stinks.

Maybe its the year of the southern stream, although looking at the winter long range we may be in a thaw cycle then a extended winter mode come mid Jan thru early March.

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1 hour ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Any one worried about New Jersey?

Not my because I'll be in mexico during this time frame 🤣

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Euro keeps it to our south. And its too warm.

ecmwfued_rapid---east_coast-210-C-mslpthkpcpk_whitecounty.thumb.png.b0cc9823d909db6ba0b5e1d449ed7da4.png

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16 hours ago, Solstice said:

Huh? I didn't know storm re-enactments were catching on. :classic_blink:.

 

15 hours ago, Solstice said:

I mean, it's technically happened 51 weeks ago.

 

I guess my cues didn't work - thread is in the wrong year?

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51 minutes ago, Solstice said:

 

 

I guess my cues didn't work - thread is in the wrong year?

Funny - I thought you meant the time stamps on the models when you said that.  Can't you fix the date as a mod?

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38 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Funny - I thought you meant the time stamps on the models when you said that.  Can't you fix the date as a mod?

Yeah but I figured let some have laughs :classic_laugh:

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Was this thread started by @Poconosnow? I know we can get pretty far out there with this ofm stuff but that's pushing it....🤣

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EPS control throwing the interior some love.

ecmwfa1ec---east_coast-174-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.587db6097a24bbc9126ca7b7768daf99.png

ecmwfa1ec-null--east_coast-186-C-frozen1024.thumb.png.29899fa88c0514111e13d7f5f469ff2c.png

 

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3 hours ago, jrstd1234 said:

It's the year of the cutter <singing>  This pattern stinks.

Honestly it seems like we’ve had far more storms pulling in from the south/southwest.  So many times I’ve seen that radar sending rain to the north.

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@PlanetMaster prehistoric caveman disco fights.

I imagine it like this, except the jellyfish is a model...

 

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57 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

EPS control throwing the interior some love.

ecmwfa1ec---east_coast-174-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.587db6097a24bbc9126ca7b7768daf99.png

ecmwfa1ec-null--east_coast-186-C-frozen1024.thumb.png.29899fa88c0514111e13d7f5f469ff2c.png

 

Thanks for posting that.

Decided to check first if you had already posted it.

 

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XXX looking better and better each run

 

fv3p_ref_frzn_us_fh162_trend.gif

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5 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

0Z CMC

 

gem_asnow_neus_32.png

Back to the south again eh? 

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1 hour ago, ryanduff said:

Back to the south again eh? 

Snow breeds snow, maybe DC and Baltimore can get some love. Weather forecast is still stating rain, CMC needs to get with the program.😅

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1 hour ago, Storms R’ US said:

Snow breeds snow, maybe DC and Baltimore can get some love. Weather forecast is still stating rain, CMC needs to get with the program.😅

This saying is for snow on the ground... meaning it tends to snow where it just snowed. Not that it snowed in NC 2 weeks ago so it'll surely snow there again. 

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NAVGEM sticking to an inland and rainy solution...

Spoiler

0z

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_28.png.5089651200262d23f63afb73c83abe8f.png

 

6z

1967119678_navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24(1).png.6078e156129551393a1a22ca4af86306.png

 

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33 minutes ago, Solstice said:

NAVGEM sticking to an inland and rainy solution...

  Hide contents

0z

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_28.png.5089651200262d23f63afb73c83abe8f.png

 

6z

1967119678_navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24(1).png.6078e156129551393a1a22ca4af86306.png

 

Woof. If Nav holds this is gonna end up a GLC.

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Hmmm so basically the navgem rule says this isn’t done trending west/NW yet, correct ? 

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3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Hmmm so basically the navgem rule says this isn’t done trending west/NW yet, correct ? 

Or the Nav is wrong... :classic_wink:

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Interesting developments on the 12z runs.

 

CMC - fast storm that rides the cold air, so it's able to produce some snow (disregarding the track right now). Very good flow pattern.

Spoiler

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-156.gif.46b15e2055ab573d02c2804367717f8f.gif

 

GFS - slow storm, generates a bit of cold on its backend but lets the cold air escape, making it a rainstorm.

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-192.gif.5cbccc304efcdc4dba66f3f2df948bce.gif

 

ICON - rides the very tail of the cold air...

Spoiler

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-180.gif.20f51983787e82dee604919969ca82a8.gif

 

9 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

Or the Nav is wrong... :classic_wink:

Very hard to tell... here's a look at its trend for the current storm. Looks pretty solid.

Spoiler

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_fh6_trend.gif.98b7973b29c9eb3f5c81396a8236fc70.gif

 

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If this storm gets farther north enough to get wintry precipitation to the northern Mid- Atlantic and southern New England, in case there was cold air available, the precipitation would be a bonus.

The best chances for precipitation, wintry or not is for the central and southern Mid-Atlantic, and possible North Carolina. 

Having said that, the 12Z runs do cast some hope for the bonus outcome.

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5 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

With temperatures this warm I doubt there will be any snow like CMC shows 

F2F05C02-9F84-4912-81DE-FA168BD37E70.jpeg

BC88ACE9-2CAA-400C-9B47-6465054B63A8.jpeg

17F0E1DF-7751-467C-9FEB-7EC1530303CD.jpeg

You may want to make a Tee time at the gold course for Tuesday -

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