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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

January 4-6, 2019 | Winter Storm | Mid-Atlantic

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Weather forecast for this timeline is still for another round of rain in Delaware and around where I work Columbia Maryland, temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s.

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12/29/18 12z Model Roundup:

GFS - complete miss

Spoiler

imageproxy.php?img=&key=e1a33eb125cb5fd8gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-186.gif.01b5bb54853186bbd06d8466609b532e.gif

 

CMC - hit for the coastal regions.

Spoiler

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96-162.gif.6fa1dcd345e12a96e07b5248f3a68615.gif

 

ICON - rain for the I-95 corridor, slam dunk for the interor

Spoiler

1442708889_icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-180(1).gif.a14e58f0006d3fa6e059e8602701f5bf.gif

 

FV3-GFS - complete miss

Spoiler

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh102-168.gif.998dc72ccff3da0339d0e3b5e7b0c3d5.gif

 

Awaiting: ECMWF, NAVGEM, JMA.

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Is it me or are the modeled solutions diverging instead of converging? Feels like there was more of a consensus 12 hours ago. :classic_blink:.

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11 minutes ago, Solstice said:

12/29/18 12z Model Roundup:

GFS - complete miss

  Hide contents

imageproxy.php?img=&key=e1a33eb125cb5fd8gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-186.gif.01b5bb54853186bbd06d8466609b532e.gif

 

CMC - hit for the coastal regions.

  Hide contents

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96-162.gif.6fa1dcd345e12a96e07b5248f3a68615.gif

 

ICON - rain for the I-95 corridor, slam dunk for the interor

  Hide contents

1442708889_icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-180(1).gif.a14e58f0006d3fa6e059e8602701f5bf.gif

 

Awaiting: FV3-GFS, ECMWF, NAVGEM, JMA.

Models don’t even appear to be in the same ballpark. At least ICON/CMC have cleats on - GFS has skates.

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Well. I kind of like the fact that the GFS IS OTS and the ICON is furthest north, with the CMC somewhat in the middle. Hopefully the Euro..FV3-GFS..NAVGEM... Ect brings things together a bit more today. Still have time with this one, though

Edited by Snowcrazed71

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12Z ECMWF turns this one into a powerful storm.

A 967mb low over southwest Maine after tracking through west-central NY state as a 977mb storm.

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Things are getting rather interesting, especially after see the euro.  bombogensis to a 960ish low up in Maine.   Impressive.  Hard to imagine the euro track is correct given the fact that the GFS is a big wide right miss

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18 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Things are getting rather interesting, especially after see the euro.  bombogensis to a 960ish low up in Maine.   Impressive.  Hard to imagine the euro track is correct given the fact that the GFS is a big wide right miss

Looking at the frames on TT that Euro run looks like an app runner. Correct?

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46 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

Looking at the frames on TT that Euro run looks like an app runner. Correct?

Eastern Great lakes, western upstate NY and then southwestern Maine.

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36 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Eastern Great lakes, western upstate NY and then southwestern Maine.

Doesn't the Nao look like it's going to be trending negative? If that's the case, My Hope Is that the storm will track into Western New York and redevelop off of Delmarva. I'll be right in the middle solution from Euro and GFS

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9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Doesn't the Nao look like it's going to be trending negative? If that's the case, My Hope Is that the storm will track into Western New York and redevelop off of Delmarva. I'll be right in the middle solution from Euro and GFS

In case the NAO does flip into negative territory, that would be a plausible outcome.

The ECMWF is the western most solution.

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13 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

In case the NAO does flip into negative territory, that would be a plausible outcome.

The ECMWF is the western most solution.

I think 1/8-10 will be our next best shot.  Gfs been showing a big one for multiple runs  now 

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38 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

In case the NAO does flip into negative territory, that would be a plausible outcome.

The ECMWF is the western most solution.

Yes. But wow it just went big phase today. Can't believe there isn't more talk of this. 

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27 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I think 1/8-10 will be our next best shot.  Gfs been showing a big one for multiple runs  now 

I await your towell throwing, cry party for that time period as well. 

Southern stream remains active, Euro just showed a big phase. Plenty on the table. 

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11 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

I await your towell throwing, cry party for that time period as well. 

Southern stream remains active, Euro just showed a big phase. Plenty on the table. 

 

I see the strength but I’m still seeing it being too warm in VA/MD? Euro shows otherwise?

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1 minute ago, VA-Snow said:

 

I see the strength but I’m still seeing it being too warm in VA/MD? Euro shows otherwise?

Euro took it to extreme west NY.

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The 12Z JMA, for discussion sake, has an interesting low-pressure placement.:ok-access:

850 mb temperature, however, is pretty mild. 

19010412_2_2912.thumb.gif.eb96e8018e8aed1914ca26901baf7e26.gif19010512_2_2912.thumb.gif.28351d55e6428a52cde01abd31d32430.gif

 

jma_T850_eus_8.thumb.png.0293dc6f3614d1404e4cec23af754acb.pngCONUS_JMA_THK_WINTER-CRITICAL_144HR.thumb.gif.ce46e87c5aea8072b38623b77c9bcf90.gif

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18Z GFS has nothing. No storm.

It´s really insane.

One of these models will need to go through a huge solution correction within 5 days.

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33 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

I await your towell throwing, cry party for that time period as well. 

Southern stream remains active, Euro just showed a big phase. Plenty on the table. 

I can’t wait for the day when you lose internet a few days prior to a storm and you can’t participate in chat.  Xoxo 

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The 12Z ECMWF runs, even with the big phase, does not show much wintry precipitation.

Only western PA and NY and northern Maine cash in.

1972016071_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined162.thumb.png.44bb46e0a30664abc0fca298b15db289.png

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FV3-GFS has an "interesting" look to it.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png.1d5489ed84d088ebd8200727e2e15b63.png

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Suspense alert!!  Suspense alert!! 

18Z FV3-XXX

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Very close to a nice phase, but later, hence closer to the coast.

The ECMWF, on the other hand, phased too much and too quick.

Who would attribute that to the ECMWF´s overamplification, quick phasing bias? :classic_sleep:

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Split flow jet, quite Atlantic (as far as stacking) over active southern stream without strong HP in E Canada is kinda like trying to find a needle in a hay stack and thread it without moving a single straw. Possible? yes, anything is possible, probable?, not likely until we loose the split flow or storms start stacking up and clogging the conveyer belt. 

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