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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Psu1313

January 7-10, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Fun fact - this is the first time I've ever started a thread. It's a great way to get a page topper!

Why January 7-9? Some models are showing a frontal passage but here's the 6z GFS showing something popping in addition to the front. 

We also have the MJO sliding through phase 7 toward 8. PNA and NAO are neutral so we're not getting a ton of help there. 

Looking at the overall pattern and how this would develop, I'd argue that coastal New England has the best shot at this potential storm. I'll be honest, it's 50/50, there's some interesting happenings in northern Japan that could be showing downstream but this could just as easily be a FROPA. It's something to keep an eye on though so I'll hoist the colors and hope for success. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

 

Page Topper - How did that happen? BOOM! What did sunshine say to the fog? 

You won't be Mist! 

Edited by Psu1313
Took out event
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Here's some fodder for your first thread!

0z eps control

ecmwfa1ec---conus-318-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.b9738468f6c452851fc9bba5501acc69.png

12z eps control

ecmwfa1ec---conus-306-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.1c8c092f448b7197269787aab76fa2b5.png

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3 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

Fun fact - this is the first time I've ever started a thread. It's a great way to get a page topper!

Why January 7-9? Some models are showing a frontal passage but here's the 6z GFS showing something popping in addition to the front. 

We also have the MJO sliding through phase 7 toward 8. PNA and NAO are neutral so we're not getting a ton of help there. 

Looking at the overall pattern and how this would develop, I'd argue that coastal New England has the best shot at this potential storm. I'll be honest, it's 50/50, there's some interesting happenings in northern Japan that could be showing downstream but this could just as easily be a FROPA. It's something to keep an eye on though so I'll hoist the colors and hope for success. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

 

Page Topper - How did that happen? BOOM! What did sunshine say to the fog? 

You won't be Mist! 

MJO delineation is somewhat of a extrapolation.

27_dec_18_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif.9a70712cb1ed4eed060f5c20fceffcbd.gif

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Quote

Euro progression, GEFS amplitude

There's always the CFS I guess...

CFSO_phase_small.gif

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Even if this results in only 2 inches of snow, I'll take it. 2 inches of snow beats suppression, and even suppression is infinitely better than the pattern we are in now. Please, anything but rain, please!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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FV-XXX was particularly naughty at the 00z run. Has a robust clipper move down ~8th, then pins it at the Delmarva and it spins and retrogrades for the next 56 hours or so :classic_blink:

 

 

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

FV-XXX was particularly naughty at the 00z run. Has a robust clipper move down ~8th, then pins it at the Delmarva and it spins and retrogrades for the next 56 hours or so :classic_blink:

 

 

It was purrty

 

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14 minutes ago, poconosms1 said:

It was purrty

 

"Was" being the operative word  6z calmed down quite a bit - outright prudish by comparison. :classic_laugh:

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Please tell me this isn't gonna be the winter of "nothing panning out in the med/short term so we just keep posting 300h fantasy storms with little to no support" ? 

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27 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

Please tell me this isn't gonna be the winter of "nothing panning out in the med/short term so we just keep posting 300h fantasy storms with little to no support" ? 

Common theme, perhaps the models have Dec / Jan / Feb preprogrammed to be cold solutions only to adjust once it hits the med / short term metrics

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3 hours ago, ryanduff said:

Please tell me this isn't gonna be the winter of "nothing panning out in the med/short term so we just keep posting 300h fantasy storms with little to no support" ? 

Can we post Hr240 maps? :classic_laugh: We still see a low to the west, but this time it has cold air to attack. My rule of thumb is that January CAD can win out even in the face of a flood of warmth. That does not mean all snow - and in fact may mean ice around the "edges". Verbatim, in this image, the SHP is just a tad east of "ideal" but it is in plenty good shape where it's at - and at 1040mb which is pretty stout. 

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png.62722330ba506e3a52a34f5d70c8e032.png

 

Warm wins partially, but there's decent cold wrap around - transfer taking place. Storm start to take off and as it does, even without the cold SHP anchored any longer, it can still make use of its own cold from aloft. 

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png.d7774e8379ec53663ba39595dfa51c12.png

Almost "there" - dropping 1mb/hr. along the way, the storm is more than capable of "manufacturing" the cold layers necessary to produce widespread winter. 

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png.4979a04e42d964fb4158e0bfdae37848.png

I'll have to look where I saw it but I believe there is some sort of SOI (drop and or lag?) going on this time period. Maybe it was a verification drop, I'm not certain and would defer to those who follow such things far more closely than do I.

Edit - it is noted that ONLY the Op GFS is favoring such a solution, at present. Even FV-XXX is shying away with a non phased northern stream dominant look (no coastal transfer)

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From previous winter fails, always concerning when the pattern flip seems to keep getting pushed back every few days. Hoping to start to see the models agree on a decent snow pattern for the EC beginning around 1/15.

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Quote

 

GEFS a split camp, but I would say a small minority  majority disagree with Op transfer idea

Spoiler

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png.bdf6b5b4f6940255f396e7a27dff19f1.png

 

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27 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

GEFS a split camp, but I would say a small minority disagree with Op transfer idea

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png.bdf6b5b4f6940255f396e7a27dff19f1.png

 

12z GFS showing the old South Bend, IN, to Atlantic City, NJ transfer. (this is sarcasm) All I'm focused on for now is that the models are sill trying to put something on the EC. What is  nice as well is a 1040HP parked in Canada in the prior frame. 

gfs.png

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35 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Can we post Hr240 maps? :classic_laugh: We still see a low to the west, but this time it has cold air to attack. My rule of thumb is that January CAD can win out even in the face of a flood of warmth. That does not mean all snow - and in fact may mean ice around the "edges". Verbatim, in this image, the SHP is just a tad east of "ideal" but it is in plenty good shape where it's at - and at 1040mb which is pretty stout. 

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png.62722330ba506e3a52a34f5d70c8e032.png

 

Warm wins partially, but there's decent cold wrap around - transfer taking place. Storm start to take off and as it does, even without the cold SHP anchored any longer, it can still make use of its own cold from aloft. 

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png.d7774e8379ec53663ba39595dfa51c12.png

Almost "there" - dropping 1mb/hr. along the way, the storm is more than capable of "manufacturing" the cold layers necessary to produce widespread winter. 

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png.4979a04e42d964fb4158e0bfdae37848.png

I'll have to look where I saw it but I believe there is some sort of SOI (drop and or lag?) going on this time period. Maybe it was a verification drop, I'm not certain and would defer to those who follow such things far more closely than do I.

Edit - it is noted that ONLY the Op GFS is favoring such a solution, at present. Even FV-XXX is shying away with a non phased northern stream dominant look (no coastal transfer)

The research is showing this 12 days after a 20pt rise over 3 days.

ElNino-Winter-SOI-Rise-Day12.thumb.gif.f79150d904e725d4a5b50f2937ff39d8.gif

11 days after...

ElNino-Winter-SOI-Rise-Day11.thumb.gif.b1f7ba58379563b773ff12daab85d647.gif

This is a 10pt rise on one day 12 days after the rise...

El-Nino-Winter-SOI-10ptRise-Day12.gif.e681c7c2ed379aa82d910f7e67d44799.gif

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28 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

The research is showing this 12 days after a 20pt rise over 3 days.

ElNino-Winter-SOI-Rise-Day12.thumb.gif.f79150d904e725d4a5b50f2937ff39d8.gif

11 days after...

ElNino-Winter-SOI-Rise-Day11.thumb.gif.b1f7ba58379563b773ff12daab85d647.gif

This is a 10pt rise on one day 12 days after the rise...

El-Nino-Winter-SOI-10ptRise-Day12.gif.e681c7c2ed379aa82d910f7e67d44799.gif

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png.e0e05c3a0b4b7e8fa631cd370b4528ff.png

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4 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png.e0e05c3a0b4b7e8fa631cd370b4528ff.png

 

A better look:

On this run, basically a FROPA, through Jan 8th.

1481034447_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined240.thumb.png.8374e853a140d416051222cc40b8b4aa.png1132215966_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceundefinedundefined240.thumb.png.b362edebc3cf0808584b63d448600cce.png

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1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

12z GFS showing the old South Bend, IN, to Atlantic City, NJ transfer. (this is sarcasm) All I'm focused on for now is that the models are sill trying to put something on the EC. What is  nice as well is a 1040HP parked in Canada in the prior frame. 

 

Don't go threatening me with a good time

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20 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

 

A better look:

On this run, basically a FROPA, through Jan 8th.

1481034447_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined240.thumb.png.8374e853a140d416051222cc40b8b4aa.png1132215966_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceundefinedundefined240.thumb.png.b362edebc3cf0808584b63d448600cce.png

Saying that's a better look isn't true since he replied to the research post. 500mb/SLP was the better look outside of anomalies.

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Can we post Hr240 maps? :classic_laugh: We still see a low to the west, but this time it has cold air to attack. My rule of thumb is that January CAD can win out even in the face of a flood of warmth. That does not mean all snow - and in fact may mean ice around the "edges". Verbatim, in this image, the SHP is just a tad east of "ideal" but it is in plenty good shape where it's at - and at 1040mb which is pretty stout. 

  Hide contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png.62722330ba506e3a52a34f5d70c8e032.png

 

Warm wins partially, but there's decent cold wrap around - transfer taking place. Storm start to take off and as it does, even without the cold SHP anchored any longer, it can still make use of its own cold from aloft. 

  Hide contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png.d7774e8379ec53663ba39595dfa51c12.png

Almost "there" - dropping 1mb/hr. along the way, the storm is more than capable of "manufacturing" the cold layers necessary to produce widespread winter. 

  Hide contents

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png.4979a04e42d964fb4158e0bfdae37848.png

I'll have to look where I saw it but I believe there is some sort of SOI (drop and or lag?) going on this time period. Maybe it was a verification drop, I'm not certain and would defer to those who follow such things far more closely than do I.

Edit - it is noted that ONLY the Op GFS is favoring such a solution, at present. Even FV-XXX is shying away with a non phased northern stream dominant look (no coastal transfer)

That’d be a beautiful birthday present for me, but...yeah, the theme has been let downs, so I’ll assume that it’s a let down.

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1 hour ago, jdrenken said:

Saying that's a better look isn't true since he replied to the research post. 500mb/SLP was the better look outside of anomalies.

Alright. 

Thanks.

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1 hour ago, jdrenken said:

Saying that's a better look isn't true since he replied to the research post. 500mb/SLP was the better look outside of anomalies.

 

7 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Alright. 

Thanks.

Only page one and already tension between you guys 🤣 However this does look like it has some potential. "Look what's behind a warm up" or something like that. 😉

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3 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

 

Only page one and already tension between you guys 🤣 However this does look like it has some potential. "Look what's behind a warm up" or something like that. 😉

What about these last few warm ups?  Nothing behind them but sadness and boredom.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

What about these last few warm ups?  Nothing behind them but sadness and boredom.

True, in all fairness it will be januaray we it occurs this time around.

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Interesting. 4 panel view of 00z Euro has a resemblance to the GFS from yesterday. Decent HP feed of cold into a transferish looking set up. Timing is different, as one would expect at this much lead (still D10+). 

untitled.thumb.png.4c11d6f5d1c2febd8e1567ce9f456c85.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png.d04bc87bef3bba79262438a9f250850b.png

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