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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Psu1313

January 7-10, 2019 | Winter Storm

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gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

Gotta love the CMC.  The little engine that couldn't.  If only...

At least there is some support for a coastal during this timeframe.  Feel like the carrot is always too small and the stick too long this winter.  Will take the eye candy nonetheless.

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5 hours ago, horseapples said:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

Gotta love the CMC.  The little engine that couldn't.  If only...

At least there is some support for a coastal during this timeframe.  Feel like the carrot is always too small and the stick too long this winter.  Will take the eye candy nonetheless.

Lock that sucker in. Rain across the bay, close enough I can smell it means the heaviest snows for me. LOL

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Euro looks great.  Area of LP attacking a strong 1041 HP.  Haven’t really seen that all season long.    CMC is almost identical   

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AC098C24-73D1-483F-8BA9-B952D9FDF255.png

Edited by PA road DAWG
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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro looks great.  Area of LP attacking a strong 1041 HP.  Haven’t really seen that all season long.    CMC is almost identical   

39654D86-EBF1-4E31-BA7F-5256F168B197.png

A7885D3C-AC85-4E48-B1FD-BC4989B1CC69.png

2C81C6AD-3125-4D72-9EDE-FBD1F8495D42.png

427C2FCD-36E4-44D5-8FBB-B7C13124ADA5.png

09C6996D-09FD-42B5-9B25-C73E500AA04F.png

AC098C24-73D1-483F-8BA9-B952D9FDF255.png

You mentioned, but did not show, the attack from what amounts to an over running situation ( a not very potent shortwave to the south, pushing precip into a fresh cold air feed). 4 panel view shows it well

 

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Caveat emptor comment - if we had received even half of the Euro snowfall showing in Hr216-240, far fewer complaints would be heard about this winter.

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GFS also with an over running look. 

I particularly favor these types of events this winter season (as opposed to wound up coastal storms) and I believe this type of system will be the main delivery method for "winter" in my area 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png.5d05736ff97caddb4ea03629664f158a.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png.d8ae249d4573bf7face6e94f912502f6.png

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14 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

GFS also with an over running look. 

I particularly favor these types of events this winter season (as opposed to wound up coastal storms) and I believe this type of system will be the main delivery method for "winter" in my area 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png.5d05736ff97caddb4ea03629664f158a.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png.d8ae249d4573bf7face6e94f912502f6.png

PDII was a great example of is.  

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Haha check this out.  It’s as if this system knows where NYC is and says screw you.  

859BEB03-F36B-473B-A1C4-2B41F6E4B329.gif

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2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

PDII was a great example of is.  

Quote

The Presidents’ Day Weekend Snowstorm of 2003

 

This massive snowstorm shutdown the local D.C. area, along with the entire northeast Megalopolis during the President's Day Weekend of February 15-17, 2003.  The average snowfall from Washington to Boston may have equaled the great storm of January 1996, which has been thought to be the biggest Megalopolis snowstorm in history for combined snow totals from all of the big cities of the Northeast.

This storm resulted from a classic "split jet stream" setup, with moisture produced from the southern "El Nino" branch interacting with a northern branch -- which provided a tremendous supply of cold air.  The southern branch earlier in the week had brought flooding rains and mudslides to Southern California.

On the surface weather map, a huge bitterly cold Arctic high pressure system set up shop north of New York State and New England during the entire weekend.  At the same time a storm center of rather modest intensity centered over the southern Plains Friday night took two full days to slowly trek across the South.  Finally, by Monday morning, the storm center passed by Ocean City and the snowfall in D.C ended.

Light rain broke out in the Metro area Friday night, with snow in the northern suburbs.  By Saturday morning, the snow line started receding slowly to the south as the Arctic high drained in cold air from the north.  By Saturday night, up to 2" of additional snow had fallen, mostly in the southern and western suburbs.

During Saturday night, an interesting setup was seen on radar and satellite, with a continuous feed of heavy rain streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico through eastern Tennessee and Kentucky and into West Virginia.  At that time, the heavy precipitation band ran into the huge mass of cold dense air mass to the north.  The precipitation band at that point was diverted to the east and streaked directly across the D.C. area.

Between 2 and 3 a.m. Sunday morning, heavy snow explosively broke out across the entire Metro region.  Whiteout conditions were noted over the next several hours, with snowfall rates exceeding 2" per hour.  By 7 a.m., 6-10" of snow had already fallen in the D.C. area.  Moderate-to-heavy snow continued all day Saturday without abatement.

Suddenly, around 8 p.m., the snow turned to sleet, even in the western suburbs.  Sleet continued all Sunday night, sometimes at a moderate to heavy rate.  The sleet did not add much to the total accumulations, but made for a very dense mass on the ground, which was quite difficult to shovel.

Finally, around mid-morning Monday, the precipitation ended as a brief period of moderate to heavy snow.

Indeed, it was a classic example of an over running event

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Storm doesn’t appear to move past central PA. This far out it’s fun to at least SEE a storm. The central Mid-Atlantic does best on these events  takes the rain/mix more out of the equation even if it hurts our more northeastern friends  

E34EBB9D-5054-40AD-A00D-C9BD6E6E11BC.png

Edited by UD1Hens
Adding

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10 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Indeed, it was a classic example of an over running event

Low pressure never got below 1011 mb for that one.  Quite the overrunning event 

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43 minutes ago, poconosms1 said:

Finally something fun to track. 

 

Until it disappears or turns into a widespread rainstorm like every other storm we had this season.  #2018-2019WinterTOrememeber

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17 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Until it disappears or turns into a widespread rainstorm like every other storm we had this season.  #2018-2019WinterTOrememeber

But no, all kidding aside I’ve always liked this timeframe best because it appears there WILL BE cold air to work it.  Getting the storm systems this season has not been the problem, it’s linking the cold and storm together that’s the problem.  Seeing the euro, cmc, and gfs all converge on a similar storm 8-10 days out is encouraging.  I’d typically like to wait a few more days to see more continuity in the models, but this has serious potential to produce a widespread snowstorm to areas that have been snow starved all season long.  

Edited by PA road DAWG
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With the exception of the southern storm a few weeks agao, I don't recall any of the other storms, really showing a strong potential for snow.  Looks like the NAO will be neutral or going negative during that time frame.

 

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Being that the time frame on this has slipped a tad, (initiation is probably the 8th vs the 7th and may run through the 10th) are there any objections to a slight tweak in the dates? 

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We are getting into January so there shouldn't be any excuses old man winter :352nmsp:

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_35.png.7d604de50bdeafc147a0cc58310a717d.png

12z with a stronger system in the mid-west, floods W of Apps with rain - but once again, a nice banana high sits "over top" and feeds decent cold down the E side. This almost HAS to force a transfer as the SLP will not make much headway against a stout banana high. 

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Comparing the 12z, rather than the Low riding due East from Kentucky, across Va, and offshore at the NC/VA boarder, it hangs out in Illinois for a bit, before traveling through, Indiana, Ohio, then into PA. Brings the white stuff much more northeast and the southern Mid-Atl into a warmer solution. Storm is still there and much bigger/precipitation rich than earlier. Eventually the low transfers to the coast but not until closer to Thursday 00z

Edited by UD1Hens
Adding

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It's hard to tell if this is a "transfer" or more of a "sidling east" (crabbing along if you will) but the storm does close off at H5 near OBX as it comes underneath of PA 

gfs_z500_vort_us_40.png.eeb9aa4fb6b0f8b0e35c49a351a4a6c6.png

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Looks like this run will give a certain NEPA poster a ("pardon" the pun) Pard-on. :classic_laugh:

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1 hour ago, avsguy said:

We are getting into January so there shouldn't be any excuses old man winter :352nmsp:

Ummm he forgot?

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11 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Looks like this run will give a certain NEPA poster a ("pardon" the pun) Pard-on. :classic_laugh:

1-2 feet north of i80 from nynjpa line and points nw.  Just a tad too torchy in spots, but I’ll take it    This is solution 9 of 50 many more to come  

A5CEBC65-CA54-466D-BD24-98D9BD47B63A.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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Been a very frustrating few weeks for us winter snow/cold lovers in the NE. As some others have mentioned, I am also liking this period. I just hope the high pressure to the north cooperate giving us our necessary cold and blocking for this to come to fruition. Happy New Year all!

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