Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

junior

Jan 2nd - 3rd, 2019 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

If this year is an indication on cutoffs, snow would be tightly wrapped inside and just barely N/NW of the low

download (5).png

download (6).png

I could be wrong but I think Ukie is the only one showing a cutoff. Also seems to be at least 24 hours slower than the rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Comparing the 500mb maps between UK and ECM it's pretty clear the UK probably looks like the ECM at the surface 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Looks like Euro had a later phase than the 12z run.

 

Euro is not even close to phasing & also is a cutoff low. The first piece of energy that CMC phases with is a long ways away. However a 2nd piece of energy does dive in behind on The coast 

 

20181230_011857.jpg

20181230_011828.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

YESTERDAY 12z & last night 0z EPS snow mean

 

0z

Screenshot_20181230-042508_Chrome.jpg

 

12z

Screenshot_20181230-042534_Chrome.jpg

Edited by Grace

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

06z GFS is a significant change although it hinted at it with 0z GFS. There seems to be two distinct differences between the GFS/CMC and Euro/Uk where the GFS and CMC want to phase with the aggressive (1st)northern energy. The Euro/UK wants to cutoff our energy which then eventually phases with a second northern energy down the road. We want a GFS/CMC for the best wintry appeal whereas the Euro/UK solution would be alright but we risk the chance at torchy 850s and a more amplified solution. Bear in mind we can also trend backwards to a non-event/suppressed weak slider with this setup.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, junior said:

06z GFS is a significant change although it hinted at it with 0z GFS. There seems to be two distinct differences between the GFS/CMC and Euro/Uk where the GFS and CMC want to phase with the aggressive (1st)northern energy. The Euro/UK wants to cutoff our energy which then eventually phases with a second northern energy down the road. We want a GFS/CMC for the best wintry appeal whereas the Euro/UK solution would be alright but we risk the chance at torchy 850s and a more amplified solution. Bear in mind we can also trend backwards to a non-event/suppressed weak slider with this setup.

 

Agree. I'm hoping that the Euro bias to cut-off lows in medium-range is at work. Ensembles were a big mix of cutoffs & phases similar to GFS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6Z FV3 was SE of the 6Z GFS but appeared similar otherwise. Also interesting to watch how the long-range NAM is handling..

Edited to say FV3 is weaker..

Edited by buckeyegal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z NAM & 09z SREF are going the cutoff route.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mulaman984 said:

D9D40CD7-FC89-4E4C-8070-DE3991DE5D77.jpeg

 

The phased look. Cutoff would not result in that for sure.

Cutoff low would result in a heavy dump on far NW part of ULL & thin fizzle to rain/snow mix as it moves east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Grace said:

 

 

Screenshot_20181230-063854.jpg

Hi, sorry stupid question. Where do you find the individual members like these for the gefs and eps on the weather model site? I have a subscription but can’t locate these maps anywhere. I’m on my mobile phone. If you get a chance can you give me a heads up? I know it’s probably right in front of me but I’ve spent 2 hours trying to find them. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×