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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Solstice

January 2-3, 2019 | Minor Impact Snowstorm

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It looks increasingly likely that a small system will impact the region throughout the day on January 3rd. The last minor impact system we had was extremely underdone, as it made it intact over the Appalachians, so maybe this one will continue the trend.

 

0z NAM 12k. Precipitation looks spotty, but overall fairly robust over the Appalachians. Minor coastal reflection too, maybe this can be a booker for the interior?

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_fh51-75.thumb.gif.898edc24c8ad8a3db97f7f9585a38452.gif

 

OKX AFD. Uncertainty in the phasing... hmm... :hmm:.

Quote

Generally zonal flow east of the Mississippi to start the
period, with a northern stream shortwave approaching from the
Great Lakes on Thursday as a weaker piece of mid level energy
passes to the south. There is some uncertainty in whether the
northern stream is able to partially phase with the southern
stream which could bring higher amounts of QPF to the area,
however not really seeing this in current model guidance so only
running with schc pops for the time being. Thermal profiles look
cold enough for frozen ptype but not expecting more than some
flurries or snow showers attm.

 

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Good one @Solstice.

Thanks.

I adjusted the dates for the other thread.

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0z ICON has it a bit beefier. Sleeper storm?

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh45-75.gif.f74c30cbe32eb876daeb92d206da0ca5.gif

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15 minutes ago, Solstice said:

0z ICON has it a bit beefier. Sleeper storm?

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh45-75.gif.f74c30cbe32eb876daeb92d206da0ca5.gif

Close to something more substantial.

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Looks like as the southern feature slows even further, it gives room for the northern stream to dig a bit.

This was probably a shortwave that the models used to phase this with the southern stream energy a few days ago. 

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Cranky's take on January 3, 2019 and January 5, 2019. Happy New Year Everyone !!!:classic_cool:

cranky 2.jpg

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Not quite in it's wheelhouse, but the NAM is picking up on today's frontal passage, as far as a skosh of cold air settling into at least the northern half of Pa. 😎❄️

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_39.png

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Posted (edited)

I hope those Canadians are on to something..

NWS going with "around" an inch..

Rgem and hrdps have more 4"-6" across the area. 

They did nail the last event imby..

hrdps_asnow_neus_42.png

rgem_asnow_neus_54 (1).png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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Man this one is close. Wouldnt take much for some North and South interaction. 

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24 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

I hope those Canadians are on to something..

NWS going with "around" an inch..

Rgem and hrdps have more 4"-6" across the area. 

They did nail the last event imby..

hrdps_asnow_neus_42.png

rgem_asnow_neus_54 (1).png

12Z EPS and ECMWF:

1566641740_9-kmECMWFUSASurface1-HourlyNewEnglandSnowfall60.thumb.png.25022a761447c6362741a21c94b8ce06.png1387722865_14-kmEPSUSAundefinedundefined72.thumb.png.2ca204ba647b0d6cf6701f26aa2df032.png

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NWS in Albany mentions some minor accumulations Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move into New England on Wednesday and bring
fair weather although model RH fields show that clouds will
likely be on the increase late in the day.

Models in decent agreement indicating a progressive northern
stream short wave approaching from the upper Great Lakes
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This system will be fast-
moving and somewhat moisture starved. Still, some minor snow
accumulations will occur with generally around an inch in the
Valleys up to 3-4 inches in the higher terrain of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Timing is such that
the morning commute on Thursday is probably going to be a
slippery one. Snow showers will diminish Thursday afternoon as
the trough moves east of our region.

image.thumb.png.ffc94e184e2b2c7c0d085b6d6d8d175e.png

AFDALY

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00Z NAM brings the two tantalizing closer...finally phases in time for southern nova Scotia....but man is this a squeaker...

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Posted (edited)

Jan02/00Z Nam continues to show a light snow event with this. LP actually develops around Delmarva but heads east.

Nam run hours 25--->48 gif in spoiler

Spoiler

namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh25-48.gif.89e4dfdf4322738dbdb1fbf9d29df71a.gif

Snow fall from this run. WOW!!! look down in Texas & Oklahoma.

image.png.60bc796e73a04d75d86f35f8a191695b.png

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

00Z NAM brings the two tantalizing closer...finally phases in time for southern nova Scotia....but man is this a squeaker...

Yeah this is close. Have to keep an eye on this one.

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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Nice little 1-3" "NADS" type event, should keep things about average to slightly above for snowfall to date this season.

Screenshot_20190102-061608.jpg.8ece995b92d32b18ec675a55753d3d8a.jpg

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Radar shows returns blossoming a bit sooner than NAM3 would suggest

NatLoop_Small.gif.855bc9d7de817d3d058f38a23cae9d8d.gif

nam3km_ref_frzn_us_5.png.6609934f0f4c23b28cb6bc7955e2b939.png

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I can finally sleep now, the nam is on board..

Looks like a general 4"-6" on the majority of guidance..

namconus_asnow_neus_16.png

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More water.  yay.  

Water tonight, Friday, and Saturday.  Endless mud.  Endless mud.  Endless mud.

I'm sure glad that it never freezes, because that would allow me to do something radical like walk across my lawn and gather firewood.

No, better that we get more water.  Water, water, water.

Has there been a dry week since July?  I don't think so.  I don't believe we have seen seven consecutive days without either significant precipitation, or a level of dew in the mornings that was akin to rain.  

During the holiday my creek flooded again.  TWICE.  

A month of this is tough.  Two months is very unusual.  We are now entering month seven.

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Look at that stream of moisture, this really was close!

I'll take my dusting and run with it lol, maybe a few surprises for some?

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This one snuck up under my radar....

Even mountains are basically snowless here today (besides trails with snowmaking). Hopefully this January is better at winter than December was...

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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Expecting a couple of inches of high ratio snow tonight.  BTV NWS discussion in spoiler.

Spoiler

Northern stream shortwave trough approaches from the Great
Lakes region late tonight, with 500mb trough axis crossing the
North Country between 12-15Z Thursday from west to east.
Moisture is limited - associated PW values generally
0.25-0.35" - but appears period of mid-level QG/synoptic
forcing is sufficient for widespread light snowfall mainly
06-13Z Thursday. Good dendrite growth should yield SLRs 15:1 to
20:1, and overall looking at 1-3" snowfall accumulation for the
region late tonight into the Thursday AM commute period. May see
some minor travel delays for the Thursday AM commute, but light
fluffy character of the dendrites should preclude any
significant issues with anticipated sub-advisory level event.
Increasing clouds and developing S-SE winds will keep
temperatures quasi- steady or slowly rise during the pre- dawn
hours Thursday, with temperatures mainly in the upr teens to
lower 20s overnight. Steady light snow ends quickly Thursday
morning, but included a chance for lingering snow showers across
the mtns for the balance of the day, even as skies become
partly sunny most valley sections. Temps moderate by Thursday
afternoon with highs 28-34F, warmest in the CT River Valley.

 

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