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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

snowlover2

January 11-13 2019 Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

Good signal on the models for a storm during this period. As currently modeled, it would lay down a potentially decent snowpack across parts of WI/MI.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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1 hour ago, easton229 said:

One of these has to hit

I think it will hit as our 3rd straight soaking rain. The Dec.31st soaker, another coming the 7th, and this one.  Maybe good snows for those in Central Wi into Central Mi though. Maybe north side of Detroit gets in on some snow. Not sure pattern will have changed much at this point to have cold air in place around lower lakes to make this snow. Could be similar to last storm with alot of rain transitioning to snow at the end. The delayed but not denied mantra showing up on LR prognosticators of shift to cold pattern.

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CMC shows one of the more potent arctic fronts we've had in quite a while. Remember the Chicago "blizzard" arctic front a few years back :classic_laugh:

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7 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

12z GFS tracks from N. IL to the Thumb of MI. Nice hit for parts of WI & northern MI

BOOOOOO

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Trying to find progress toward a more favorable pattern...on that run, from roughly hour 240-384, things look more seasonable overall around here. Yeah, the 2m anomalies are still overall above average, but daytime temps stayed in the 20s-30s for the most part. Even a transient shot of cold air in that Jan. 12-18 time frame that times out perfectly to produce a quick-hitting snowmaker would do wonders for the winter-craving crowd's morale. 

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35 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

12z GFS tracks from N. IL to the Thumb of MI. Nice hit for parts of WI & northern MI

New Year's Eve storm replay

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I could live with these 2m temp means put out by the GEFS...better than what we've been dealing with lately.

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_fh228-384.gif

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FV3 keeps the northern energy up along the US/Canada border & doesn't connect with the southern energy. The southern energy tracks from Ark. to SE OH with a narrow band of snow on the NW fringe. 

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Sick of tracking rainstorms & cutoff LPs? - Here's a nice little fantasy storm at the tail end of the FV3 :classic_love:

 

fv1.png

fv2.png

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Unfortunetly it doesn't phase quick enough to be a big snowmaker in our areas.

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11 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Unfortunetly it doesn't phase quick enough to be a big snowmaker in our areas.

At the very least, it would be nice if a storm like this could crank up to help shake up the pattern a bit.

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I hope I can get in on this one. We had about only 2" of snow the last 5 weeks after a nice November. 

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1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

This looks interesting.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

Who in the OV doesn’t like a red “L” over TN moving NE?

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