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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

snowlover2

January 11-13 2019 Winter Storm

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0z Euro appears to be better organized although it does weaken it as it heads east. Shows 4-6" from C/S IL,W KY,SE MO dropping to around 1" for the southern half of OH/E KY. At this point glad to see Euro trying to come on board.

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ILN overnight write up a little contradictory. 

Heights will begin rising on Wednesday night and Thursday, as surface high pressure slides into the area from the northwest. This will bring dry conditions through the end of the week. Changes to the forecast through the rest of the extended were generally limited to making some slight downward adjustments to temperatures, as the cold air looks a little more potent than in previous forecasts. However, precipitation chances still appear very unlikely. Over the weekend, there will likely be some upstream forcing in both the northern and southern streams, but with vastly different run-to-run depictions (on both the GFS/ECMWF) on if there will be any phasing or impacts to the Ohio Valley. A dry forecast will be maintained, with very slightly warming temperatures (slightly above normal) through Saturday and Sunday.

 

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0z Euro

 

Screenshot_20190107-040409_Chrome.jpg

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0z EPS SNOW MEAN...when blues start showing up that's a really good signal considering where only 120 hrs from event. No lock on how this comes together & track yet

 

Screenshot_20190107-040525_Chrome.jpg

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0z GEFS snow mean...also strong signal....little further north than EPS.

Also notice how significantly the signal increased compared to 18z Mean. 120 hrs away spells likely event with that trend

 

 

 

Screenshot_20190107-040920_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190107-041221_Chrome.jpg

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Posted (edited)

06z gfs, the UMET was similar to the ecm in a weak messy early phase tapering off as it heads east

USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_186.gif

Edited by ohiobuckeye45

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7 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

06z gfs, the UMET was similar to the ecm in a weak messy early phase tapering off as it heads east

USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_186.gif

 

Pretty strong agreement with GEFS placement 

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Anyone have access to 0z GEFS individual members? For some reason they did not upload on Ryan's site

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Hello everyone, got back from Texas this past Saturday.  Ironically even with a near miss in the Dallas area I still had my most wintry storm there so far as all my trees were coated in ice for a day.  Of course if you went 5 miles east of me they didn't even get that lol.  Looking forward to some snow though. Hopefully is starts to pick up here the next couple of weeks. 

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6z FV3 is further NW and a weaker 1010mb low up to Portsmouth OH vs 00z 1006MB over wheeling WV

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Screenshot_20190107-060154.jpg

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24 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

6z FV3 is further NW and a weaker 1010mb low up to Portsmouth OH vs 00z 1006MB over wheeling WV

This is a positive to me. I'd rather see some more western solutions show up over the next several days vs. being on the western edge of the current guidance envelope. 

LONG way to go, but at least this has legs and is worth keeping track of, which is a VAST improvement over winter to date. :classic_biggrin:

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Here's the 6z ensembles & the ensemble mean...still messy

 

Screenshot_20190107-061242.jpg

Screenshot_20190107-061341.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Grace said:

Here's the 6z ensembles & the ensemble mean...still messy

 

Screenshot_20190107-061242.jpg

Screenshot_20190107-061341.jpg

Can u link those, still cant find the indv members page

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Posted (edited)

Nice to see ensemble support. I said earlier this has the look of a late phase which could mean weak few incher for us but I see room for amplification... still ways out(most energy onshore early Friday) and any snow is a plus this season.

Edited by junior
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1 minute ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

Thanks! I've been missing out, it's like a whole other world in there lol

To me it's not the most user-friendly site and I've missed out on a lot also. Still learning what all there is.

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I am so glad we are back up and running here. When things started to get interesting and I couldn't read peoples' thoughts I was not happy! Lol.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, junior said:

Nice to see ensemble support. I said earlier this has the look of a late phase which could mean weak few incher for us but I see room for amplification... still ways out(most energy onshore early Friday) and any snow is a plus this season.

It's great to be able to track something after the lousy winter thus far. There's definitely room for adjustments, hopefully for the better. Not only is the energy offshore, circled, but there's a piece ahead of it coming ashore today that has not been analyzed in days either. Should have a much clearer picture come Friday.

Hopefully there are good times ahead for us all!

gfs_z500_vort_npac_1.thumb.png.952b4f9ff211d30dbaf18bbc76788821.png

 

Edited by weather_boy2010
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NOW we’re talkin!! 

 

Something to look at besides all of this dreary rain 😂!!! 

And Im off work this Saturday so... bring it!!! 

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12Z icon has a thump for our region before the HP sinks in and pushes the system OTS

Comparing it to it’s 00Z run, it’s stronger.  

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GFS coming in stronger and NW, stronger would definitely aid in a better phase. Fantastic start to the run for MO

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I'm hoping this ends up a big storm. I'm almost as excited for the potential great Playoff game this could create over in Boston. I'm hoping the storm hits the Goldilocks zone so that we a good hit here in Ohio but also it makes for an epic game at New England. 

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