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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

2019 | Eastern North Pacific | Tropical Development Disco

Staff Recommended Posts

The eastern North Pacific may start getting tropical cyclones early this year, and perhaps even a named system, with a rare January tropical disturbance so far getting a short range 30% chance of development and a 50% long-range chance of development.

However, this one would need to develop and become a tropical cyclone before early next week, and conditions will become unconducive for development. 

This disturbance does not appear to have an invest activated for it yet, especially given that we are not in the 2019 tropical season yet.





Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 PM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of
low pressure has formed about 1300 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low is forecast to move
slowly northward over the next few days and could acquire some
tropical or subtropical characteristics during that time.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development by early next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical cyclone development, the low will likely produce
gale-force winds over the weekend. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 11 AM PST Friday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and are
available on the web at

Forecaster Zelinsky



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