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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Overall Setup

Continued active southern stream branch, with conflicting teleconnections signals and active robust BSR signal. Northern stream still sending energy impulses eastward. As always timing between the northern and southern branches can greatly influence the outcome of this possibility but does not necessarily mean that only a phased solution is required as depending on the track of the southern stream energy, in case it´s more eastward, this time frame seems colder.

BSR Depiction

A low-pressure system developing over the northeastern GOMEX and southern SE CONUS, tracks ENE'ward towards the southeast coastal waters and the northeastward towards the Mid -Atlantic coastal waters. Once it´s offshore near the coast of Virginia, the storm tracks either to the ENE affecting only the Mid-Atlantic including near coastal areas of the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England or actually continues on towards the Gulf of Maine and also impacts northern New England.

Now, the BSR is showing what it seems to be two different potential storms in the time frame between Jan 13th and 15th. However, so far it does not seem that there are signals for two storms in this time frame on the models. It may take a bit more time for us to identify exactly which one would be the storm that comes to reality in this time frame for the region, the one that occurs on the 13th or the one on the 15th. Both take similar tracks from the southern southeast CONUS to Virginia and the off the coast. From there, the tracks diverge, as one tracks offshore to the ENE and the other tracks NE towards southern New England.

Please see below the possibilities depicted by the BSR.

13th:

558553718_19_0113-00(1).gif.6e84671db8f01cdcdd4024454efbbcf2.gif19_0113-12.gif.def18af75336b9e2a317bb26c03deeef.gif

 

15th:

19_0114-00.gif.419ad0bd3672325bcc510baeeb4a132a.gif19_0115-00.gif.2dbbfb81d153665ca2b9648f3ca53f68.gif19_0115-12.gif.f055950470a7891af4c2683e87ba4bb8.gif

 

500mb Flow (Jan13th through 15th)

The 500mb flow is pretty interesting and does indicate that a storm is possible, although not a too powerful one, especially because we do have conflicting teleconnections during this time frame.

1742241660_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.6bd838231b7bbd5bf354b2c7a4b62878.gif

 

On the next page, more relevant and related data can be found, including the teleconnection readings for this time frame.

 


Northern Hemisphere and North American views

EPS 500mb height and MSLP:

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_fh192-240.thumb.gif.68cb3fdf601a0269d77b2641cfba4704.gif

 

EPS North America flow 500mb height                                            EPS North America Normalized MSLP 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh192-240.gif.bb128b3bb584a1badf004c8d60f625f2.gifecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_fh192-240.gif.c61b865c40291d305f4af1bed1738a76.gif

 

Overall, not a classic flow, but also not a terrible one. There´s room for a decent storm, while also one cannot disregard the possibility of a farther offshore outcome, in which no one north of eastern Virginia would be impacted.

 

Teleconnections

EPS

AO is negative, around -1 while the EPO is in a weak positive state near neutral. This is not a terrible combo as it is, but it´s not ideal as well, given the positive EPO even though is almost in a neutral state.

2004200606_epsao.png.56a8a7c0e7d20f9eef45237f1ecd1ad4.png458020026_epsepo.png.09fa5a2a9842c8b19fa3512303572f9c.png

The NAO is transitioning from a near weak positive neutral state to a weak negative one, while the PNA looks to looks to be positive around 1. This combo, although not ideal because of the weak magnitude of the negative NAO flip, nevertheless still have the flipping NAO which is beneficial as well as the positive PNA

2134631314_EPSNAO.png.d5712ccbf4511c4d3fea81695aa27364.png884199004_EPSPNA.png.91bbb387aeeb3d97f0d810944af84f65.png

As we go on and take a look at the GEFS teleconnections forecast, we see a bit of a different look.

GEFS

This GEFS AO/EPO combo does look pretty decent, as we have a negative AO around -2 and a negative EPO around -0.5. In case the EPO was in a strong negative state, this would basically be a good one.

725500556_GEFSAO.png.b1d4a13594174a86b0e98d9562376999.png567093309_GEFSEPO.png.5c4a60792542cf90225c2fe29154b50d.png

As we take a look at the NAO/PNA combo, we can argue that this one is pretty decent. The NAO is negative around -0.5 and the PNA is positive around 0.7. The magnitude of the readings is not ideal as both are in weak states, but the signs of polarities for each are good.

138976570_GEFSNAO.png.a8d0f9feb9544bf18821e67a126152f0.png371567715_GEFSPNA.png.cf80fe2e6c96541b8994c27c781cc001.png

 

In short, this one looks to have a good potential to bring wintry precipitation for the thread´s region, also keeping in mind that this does not mean that the whole region will see wintry precipitation. The exact track and storm strength will be determined later. The other aspect to keep in mind is that there´s a chance that whatever storm comes, it could take a further offshore track and not affect areas north of Virginia. 

Let´s see how it goes folks. Hopefully, it´s time to be rewarded for the snowless December.

Have fun!

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Posted (edited)

This potential looks good to me. Nao stays just below neutral and AO takes a nose dive. More importantly the PNA seems to remain just positive for this time frame. Although NAO and PNA are slightly favorable. Sometimes that's even better than some strong signals. On another note Global Models are starting to hint at some serious artic air coming into the U.S during this time frame. Let's see what happens cheers.

Shaulov4,

(From Mexico)

Edited by shaulov4

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GFS just tossed its hat in the ring

18z GFS

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

GFS just tossed its hat in the ring

18z GFS

Game on 😎

Shaulov4,

(From Mexico)

 

Edited by shaulov4

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

GFS just tossed its hat in the ring

18z GFS

Being early it looks wet along mid Atlantic I95 and east, if you continue to watch it’s followed by a soaker.

Edited by Storms R’ US

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6 hours ago, Storms R’ US said:

Being early it looks wet along mid Atlantic I95 and east, if you continue to watch it’s followed by a soaker.

Neither of those are true on 00z - 

As we know, it will change (and change, and change again)

 

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0z CMC had an interesting solution.  I’m only posting every 12 hours to cut out on photos.

 

C367DBF3-79C6-4B1F-878C-D2D93B76D56F.png

FC1668E8-8D4D-47FC-991B-0B847D851EF1.png

DBE192BE-1742-4076-94ED-FED08568C712.png

A7C0D56A-B4B0-4D9F-BE5B-D381555FFEE0.png

E2102A59-AFAB-46A8-AC25-98C667B38C45.png

6F9EA3D0-82A2-42CA-987D-24CD41C5CC45.png

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^That'd be beautiful, but since it's the CMC and far out, not going to see it.

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And now we wait...

Recent systems have slowed down.  Will this one and do we want it to.

Euro snow (Kuchera 24 hr)

R8QHqXB.png

 

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44 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

^That'd be beautiful, but since it's the CMC and far out, not going to see it.

Constantly. Making. Cyclones. 

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Posted (edited)

12Z CMC snowmap.  Most of the snow in the MA & SE comes from the threat in this thread.

 

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

Edited by paletitsnow63
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2 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z CMC snowmap.  Most of the snow in the MA & SE comes from the threat in this thread.

 

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

Hmph - Canadians. They can't even get into the medal round in their own Junior Tournament (ice hockey). :classic_laugh:

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Well at least there is a Lil hope for something. I'm tired of rain! ! 

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Lets keep in mind how shitty the gfs actually is around 7days-ish

6E492BE4-5E4E-456A-8882-32293022DA17.jpeg

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Lets keep in mind how shitty the gfs actually is around 7days-ish

6E492BE4-5E4E-456A-8882-32293022DA17.jpeg

They've all been crap with the jet pattern...  not even worth stressing over untill things chage

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12Z EURO takes a SLP from GOM to just east of BM (H192 to H216)

 

ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

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8 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO takes a SLP from GOM to just east of BM (H192 to H216)

 

ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

Would love to see those in between frames but that isn’t a bad run 200 hours out

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3 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

Would love to see those in between frames but that isn’t a bad run 200 hours out

447350351_VideoConverterUltimate_20190105140544.gif.f3060b447e11aae6228e606a2e8a3679.gif

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Posted (edited)

Euro looks decent this far out, just barely any precip on nw side.  Streams don’t interact like the cmc  

Edited by PA road DAWG

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22 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro looks decent this far out, just barely any precip on nw side.  Streams don’t interact like the cmc  

7+ days... 

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18Z GFS has a coastal storm, a 1040mb blocking high over SE Canada and light snow for DC, Delmarva and southern NJ.

Looks lije a big win setup.

The issue is that the storm gets blocked and is forced to track to the ENE out to sea.

This ENE track out to sea once the storm is off the Virginia coast, is a possible scenario I mentioned in the thread opener.

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Lol I will start watching this one on the 11th 

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

This ENE track out to sea once the storm is off the Virginia coast, is a possible scenario I mentioned in the thread opener.

Mark my words, this will be the storm, Jan 18-20th 

I've been spoon feeding myself with cranky's writings, he makes lots of valid points and the setup in this time period suggests a possible hit MA & NE. 

Arctic air in the mid west, normal temps on the EC,  blocking w/ an active jet (ridge in the west)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z GFS has a coastal storm, a 1040mb blocking high over SE Canada and light snow for DC, Delmarva and southern NJ.

Looks lije a big win setup.

The issue is that the storm gets blocked and is forced to track to the ENE out to sea.

This ENE track out to sea once the storm is off the Virginia coast, is a possible scenario I mentioned in the thread opener.

Cranky is 100% NOT on board with this system.   Says the flow is too zonal and that the gfs scooting this east is probably right.  That took almost all of the wind out of my sails.  

Edited by PA road DAWG

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