Regardless of the model, they all show this to be more of an over-running situation (surface low does not get cranking and then climb the coast). This type of system is that which I've opined would be the best chance for MidAtl winter - this case appears to not be an exception.
Looking at H5 on the GFS - I find it a bit hard to believe it has this right though. In particular, it mysteriously takes a piece of Pac jet energy (near Hr96) and instead of progressing it along with the STJ (southern jet), it drops it off and retrogrades it within the mean flow. Perhaps someone who is good with gif's can provide the illustration. Point being, the GFS has NOT been consistent in handling the upper levels - despite what some think and have said. The results are "similar" but it was just 24 hours ago we saw the GFS phase all the jets into a blockbuster - now we see it using only two of them (the 3d is dropped as I described) but still delivers a really decent over-running snow to the aforementioned MidAtl region.
OTOH - the Euro is still a bit all over the place with its handling of the H5 flow - its typical bias of holding back the STJ for too long seems to be in play here. It uses a minor piece of mid lat Pac jet which, all by itself, cannot combat the influence of the cold dry air sitting in S Canada. Unlike the GFS, which captures a piece of extra energy from the north as it comes across the TN River Valley - allowing it enough strength to attack the high "over top", with predictable result of much further northern expansion of the precipitation shield.
We don't lack moisture - there is plenty of that. We don't lack cold air supply. What remains to decipher is just how energetic can the system become. THAT aspect is the key to the forecast and we have a bit of a split camp but evenly so. I'd guestimate that GFS/CMC outcome is slightly LESS likely than the "Foreign" models, but only marginally so.
Please read! One of the best posts in the thread so far!
My guess at this point is that it continues ENE but.... at 500mb, theres energy that gets held back (Boo!) which could have dug into the storm and taken it further north. Theres's the energy over IA that's diving down. If it digs in in the hrs 90-102, then you get more of the top arrow result which brings that new low NE rather than E. If that energy shunts eastward, then that low off NC is wasted (and not in the Canadian sense).