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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO snow-map.  Reminds me of the path of the 12/9/2018 storm.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010712_168_493_215.png

I've seen people compare it to a "less robust" version of that storm also.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, jdrenken said:

I've seen people compare it to a "less robust" version of that storm also.

Wherever it goes, I would look for it to juice up as we go forward in time just like that one did. Perhaps not to the same extent but I would say we are looking at bottom end qpf right now. 

Edited by 1816
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29 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

 

Yea, the gfs will eventually cave.  Not a chance both the euro and ukie are wrong here.  I hope they’re wrong, but it’s like hoping Brady and Billichek choke in the playoffs....doesn’t happen often. 

Its monday... you do this every single storm.  Let it play out..  the models have mostly all sucked this winter, so going off of one (regardless of outcome) almost a week out makes no sense.  It can and will change 

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1 minute ago, Goalie24 said:

Its monday... you do this every single storm.  Let it play out..  the models have mostly all sucked this winter, so going off of one (regardless of outcome) almost a week out makes no sense.  It can and will change 

Hug the GFS let me know how that works out for you

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image.png.9261929258c65b23a875f319921ff2ad.png

In all fairness, the FV3 doesn't really look all that bad. Even if this were to be the track verbatim accumulations would be pretty decent from D.C to NYC. Higher ratio snow based on the cold airmass and probably with a more extensive precip shield. I would call 4-8 inches for those places mentioned. That's better than 0 since November. 

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6 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Its monday... you do this every single storm.  Let it play out..  the models have mostly all sucked this winter, so going off of one (regardless of outcome) almost a week out makes no sense.  It can and will change 

 

4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Hug the GFS let me know how that works out for you

I'll find the middle ground here..... wait till Thursday lol 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Its monday... you do this every single storm.  Let it play out..  the models have mostly all sucked this winter, so going off of one (regardless of outcome) almost a week out makes no sense.  It can and will change 

The euro is like Kobe Bryant

the gfs is like Derek Fisher  

For you oldschool folk

F9B6D665-D39E-4997-AEF2-FAEA2D48F714.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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8 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Hug the GFS let me know how that works out for you

You know you're hugging it. Tight gripped bear hug. 

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Just now, MDBlueRidge said:

You know you're hugging it. Tight gripped bear hug. 

It’s one of those weird relationships like McDonald’s french fries.... you want them so bad but you know you have to let them go because they are terrible for u 

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Page 2 was 10 hours ago.

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From DarkSky.net... Bullish.

Capture.JPG

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

 

Yea, the gfs will eventually cave.  Not a chance both the euro and ukie are wrong here.  I hope they’re wrong, but it’s like hoping Brady and Billichek choke in the playoffs....doesn’t happen often. 

But this would be a very plausible year for that, so...a chance?

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55 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO snow-map.  Reminds me of the path of the 12/9/2018 storm.

Music to my ears!  I would LOVE a repeat of that without the sleet and FR on the back plz and thank you!

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Quote

For the weekend, global models continue to support the potential for
a winter storm to impact the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts. The
latest run of the GFS continues to be the most supportive of the
winter storms threat for our area, with the Canadian jumping on
board with the 12z run as well. However, some models suggest a
more suppressed system, keeping things to our south. One
constant amongst guidance is the presence of a strong area of
surface high pressure over southern Quebec/Ontario, which should
provide plenty of cold air to the region. The real question, as
always, is where the surface low will track as it moves across
the southeast. With a large number of scenarios still being
shown amongst guidance, it is too early to be sure of anything
at this point. The 2 primary pieces of upper-level energy in
question have yet to reach North America, and as a result, are
likely not being sampled very well in the models just yet. As
these features move closer, things should start to come into
better agreement. For now, this is just something to monitor, so
stay tuned for further updates in the coming days.

Sterling notes the high pressure in Quebec. Their long range discussion usually avoids the four letter word (snow), as Virginians tend to panic when they hear it in the forecast. They claim the Canadian and GFS are dancing to the same tune, but caution waiting until the energy over the Pacific is better sampled before getting too excited.

I am fine with a southern slider solution at this point. That worked out right nice for my area last time with a surprise 6-8 inches after a forecast of a trace to 1 inch max.

 

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1 hour ago, jdrenken said:

I've seen people compare it to a "less robust" version of that storm also.

Is there less confluence up north as well 😏

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7 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Is there less confluence up north as well 😏

oh man. Do you have a stressful few days coming up? Don't hop on board. 

play it safe. 

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Posted (edited)

With 5 to 6 days to go I think any model could be right.  Like sterling g said. It hasn't even reached the US and isn't being sampled yet so I wouldn't take any model seriously at the moment

Edited by Winter_warlock

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16 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Is there less confluence up north as well 😏

Grand solar minimum? lol I crack myself up sometimes

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NAVGEM showed some improvement from the 0z

f156.thumb.gif.72bc500effa6726e5fa4daf913a0f709.gif

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LOL - CPC. Won't say what type, just "heavy"

hazards_d3_7_contours.thumb.png.5738ac57a12748b39910b895fc00d531.png

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

LOL - CPC. Won't say what type, just "heavy"

hazards_d3_7_contours.thumb.png.5738ac57a12748b39910b895fc00d531.png

Cant help but wonder what "Much below normal temperatures" means for Alaska in January

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6 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

LOL - CPC. Won't say what type, just "heavy"

 

Maybe little tiny anvils? :classic_biggrin:

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

They reversed CT and Maine. MJ is obviously in the totally category. Also, NJ....beyond worried.....:thregen:

Page Topper! What happens when you don't see light rain? You mist it! 

I'll take a bow because that was an original. :P

Edited by Psu1313
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