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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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47 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Cranky is 100% NOT on board with this system.   Says the flow is too zonal and that the gfs scooting this east is probably right.  That took almost all of the wind out of my sails.  

Good news is, he's wrong plenty. ie entire winter of 2016-17. Terrible. 

I like his info. Good stuff, but split flow, all bets are off. 

 

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Cranky is 100% NOT on board with this system.   Says the flow is too zonal and that the gfs scooting this east is probably right.  That took almost all of the wind out of my sails.  

I may heave miss read then, I was looking at his diagram with the cold a little west of us, atlantic getting stacked with the impression that the only way was up the coast. 

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3 hours ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Mark my words, this will be the storm, Jan 18-20th 

I've been spoon feeding myself with cranky's writings, he makes lots of valid points and the setup in this time period suggests a possible hit MA & NE. 

Arctic air in the mid west, normal temps on the EC,  blocking w/ an active jet (ridge in the west)

Well I must say that this is not the 18th-20th either.  This is the 13th-15th.

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Snobal sighting!  Not sure why he is here at this long of a lead time!

  • Haha 1

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8 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro looks decent this far out, just barely any precip on nw side.  Streams don’t interact like the cmc  

Look good for 7+ days out. At least we have something decent to track that isn't all rain lol

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Euro is wide right.   Seems to be the going theme 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro is wide right.   Seems to be the going theme 

I would venture to guess that this will surely not be the outcome ( but one could assume that it may be right because of the past month or so's storm history ). We are just ovwr a week away. Lets see what will happen. ( I do feel like a broke record with saying " give it some time, it will change " ), but, it will. 😳😁

Edited by Snowcrazed71

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Posted (edited)

Have I got a snow map for DT!   0Z EPS member #5.  Snobal we need you to send this map over to DT immediately!  45" in Richmond and its on the EPS :classic_biggrin:

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010600_240_493_215_m5.png

Edited by paletitsnow63

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56 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Have I got a snow map for DT!   0Z EPS member #5.  Snobal we need you to send this map over to DT immediately!  45" in Richmond and its on the EPS :classic_biggrin:

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010600_240_493_215_m5.png

This is a joke right

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I'll post the BOX disco here as well

Quote

Evaluating trends. Poleward sub-tropical contributions, especially
over the N Atlantic, per potential temperature along the dynamic
tropopause, putting pressure up against a persistent Africa through
N Pacific H3 jet. Several gyres stretched across the N hemisphere,
undergoing perturbations, amplification, and interactions yielding
abundant potential outcomes difficult to nail down with certainty.
Inspecting 5-day average H5 height ensemble means, NW Russia and N
Pacific gyres putting an additional poleward squeeze. W CONUS split
flow complicating matters further. Question going forward as to a
continual forecast polar vortex disruption noted in 50-10 mb height
anomalies, whether there are stratospheric - tropospheric coupling
interactions, tied into a 5-day average ensemble mean forecast of a
tighter, buckled H5 height pattern over our neck of the woods. In
other words, whether there`s greater opportunity for deeper storm
development in vicinity of New England going further into Winter. A
lot of uncertainty and unknowns, but worthy of noting as the 03.0z
EC control noted strong -AO / -NAO teleconnections late January on
into early February, while a equatorial Pacific modest MJO slides E
per phase 8 forecasts with potential E propagation of sub-tropical
Pacific low-level wind anomalies from a weak +ENSO to the CONUS. A
greater weighting towards EC / ECens, pattern appears to be turning
stronger, but as to exact outcomes is largely unknown. Break down
details, forecast thinking in the discussion below. Low confidence
with forecasts beyond day 5 given increasing chaos as noted above.

 

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19 minutes ago, bucikaroo said:

This is a joke right

It is a real map from an EPS member but yes it is a joke.  DT lives in Richmond area and from past experience Snobal "quotes" him at times.

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Some more "candy" from 0Z EPS members.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010600_240_485_215_m14.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010600_240_485_215_m28.png

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NJ jackpot on member 47 of 0Z EPS

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010600_240_485_215_m47.png

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What I like is all the models seem to be showing a very big high to the north next Sunday into Monday.  Whether or not that translates to a storm riding the coast or going OTS is to be determined.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

gem_z500_mslp_us_33.png

gfs_z500_mslp_us_32.png

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Quote

On Saturday and for the weekend, multiple upper level disturbances
will be moving through the upper level pattern. One disturbance is
forecast to move through Texas and then kick of a surface low near
the Gulf of Mexico. Another disturbance on a central stream will
move through the upper Midwest and is forecast to create a surface
low over the Midwest and translate this low eastward into our region
by Sunday. The surface low over the Gulf of Mexico will be he main
factor to keep a eye on through the long term. As of right now, the
models has this surface low being kicked out to sea. The 12Z GFS
does have the two disturbances phasing over the Carolinas late
Sunday into Monday but that is beyond seven days at this moment.
Cold air looks to be in place through the weekend with temperatures
hovering near or below freezing during the day and overnight lows
well into the 20s. Since there isn`t a blocking high over the
Atlantic, I would think this system will be pushed out to see before
it really affects our area. The central disturbance could kick off
some wintry precipitation over higher elevations but this
disturbance/low will be continental in nature which would suggest a
drier moisture content. We will need to continue to monitor how this
system evolves.

Sterling forecast discussion in long range section. Unusual for them to go into this much detail about something still a week out.

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0z gfs not bad for a week out, winds up better further north:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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I’m going to keep a sharp eye on this snowstorm potential. This storm could potentially be the “big one”, or one of the “big ones” for this winter!! Let hope that I actually see snow from this storm because I haven’t had a snowstorm since Mid-November.

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This is amazing!!!  Just had to wait out the thaw and we get rewarded and then some!
It seems to me like the pattern wants to go into this phase of more cold air and high pressures from the north meeting the moist flow and storms coming from the southeast.  If so, PERFECT!!!  Couldn't ask for more!!

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Posted (edited)

Looks like we have a storm to really look forward to, I really do believe this can come to fruition this time around, this also comes at a time where I believe we will see the colder shots come in. Looks like the atmosphere is just ripe. Btw historically winter usually gets kicking in Mid-January so we shall see. 

Edited by shaulov4

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Very nice to see the gfs fv3 and GEFS all show big hits.  The GEFS is the snowiest it’s ever been by a long shot.  It’s A little discouraging the euro is not on board though.  

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2 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Looks like we have a storm to really look forward to, I really do believe this can come to fruition this time around, this also comes at a time where I believe we will see the colder shots come in. Looks like the atmosphere is just ripe. Btw historically winter usually gets kicking in Mid-January so we shall see. 

 

Just now, PA road DAWG said:

Very nice to see the gfs fv3 and GEFS all show big hits.  The GEFS is the snowiest it’s ever been by a long shot.  It’s A little discouraging the euro is not on board though.  

we will have to wait and see, gfs has had snow in the long range only to disappear in the short range

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4 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Was that a triple phaser?

Affirmative - and that makes it a bit more unbelievable. FV-XXX is as well. 

From what I've seen - they are alone in that depiction

 

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