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Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Not bad for D6/7

prbww_sn25_DAY6.gif.b4f9b4d1316598077c1c678842182b6c.gif

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Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 147 AM EST Mon Jan 07 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 10 2019 - 12Z Mon Jan 14 2019 ...

Overview... A relatively amplified but still progressive flow regime will persist across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. 500 hPa D+8 charts show a persistent mean trough just off the U.S. West Coast, with ridging across the U.S. and Canadian Plains, and mean a mean trough across New England. Amplified systems should reach the West Coast every couple days, with some splitting of energy into northern/southern stream components as the waves move into the Rockies/central U.S. Models continue to suggest the potential for some degree of northern/southern stream phasing across the eastern U.S. by the weekend, with potential initial surface low development in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and energy transferring to a new low off the Southeast coast by Sat night/Sun.

By days 5-7 (Sat-Mon), the aforementioned split flow begins to play a larger role as the Pacific energy separates into northern and southern stream components, while yet another amplified wave approaches the West Coast. Southern stream shortwave energy should cross the Four Corners region Fri and reach the southern plains Sat, while the northern stream component initially weakens as it encounters anticyclonic flow before amplifying once again as it reaches the northern plains/Midwest Fri-Sat. The Sat-Sun time period is when the complexities begin as to how these two features will (or will not) interact, potentially resulted in a coastal low pressure system off the Eastern Seaboard by Sun-Mon. The GFS has for a couple runs shown a highly phased system with a relatively intense low pressure system off the East Coast, but has also been fairly inconsistent. The ECMWF, on the other hand, has shown a less phased/more suppressed system that moves more quickly out to sea, and has also been quite consistent in depicting this type of solution (with a fair degree of support from ECENS/GEFS means as well). Given the low predictability of such an evolution on days 6-7, opted to go heavily toward a solution more like the ensemble means and ECMWF (and GFS from 12Z Sun). The next system approaching the West Coast by day 6-7 is reflected by a range of possible model solutions varying in timing as well as amplitude. Thus, an ensemble mean approach is preferred here as well. Given these considerations, the forecast during days 5-7 was gradually trended to weight ECENS and GEFS ensemble means more heavily than deterministic guidance.

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9mhwbg_conus.gif.c3ade05c067aced985e2c97b5b46a27b.gif

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This would make for a fun patriots-chargers game. :classic_smile:

Kickoff.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.thumb.png.f33e75299c6ddd8ebc021dd81c0e9a8d.png

 

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At the surface, it's a sad state for the GFS, worst performing model at D6 in the PNA region, FV3 only edges out the Canadian. I don't count the CFS.

cor_day6_PMSL_MSL_G2PNA.thumb.png.879a82f72907f39110dac2df28b18004.png

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Affirmative - and that makes it a bit more unbelievable. FV-XXX is as well. 

From what I've seen - they are alone in that depiction

 

The GFS was a triple phaser ?

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16 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The GFS was a triple phaser ?

Deep breaths. Don't see it. Got a monster only shown by GFSs. 

Some Euro ensemble support. But not enough, yet. 

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15 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The GFS was a triple phaser ?

That is what I saw in the 00z suite. It catches the arctic jet very late but it does entrain it all the same. One can see all three pieces at Hr120

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png.d7a1e71cf73cc9834b1b8e992391229c.png

Well blended by 164

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png.444898acabbfa84e28c989349d7c4996.png

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12 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Deep breaths. Don't see it. Got a monster only shown by GFSs. 

Some Euro ensemble support. But not enough, yet. 

Yea I’m very suspect of the gfs’s at this stage of the game.  It’s d7 score has been horrendous.  

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What I think is amazing is how the faster ECMWF seems to the going with the BSR feature that occurs on the 13th, earlier or faster; a more Mid-Atlantic based solution and then the ENE out to sea outcome, while the GFS couple, seems to be going with the BSR feature that occurs later on the 15th, which is a slower, more amplified solution and does impact all the way to New England, as its final outcome, which resembles the BSR for the 15th.

It´s fascinating to watch this evolve.

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I will say this though....the gfs has always been very conservative.  So seeing it paint a nice storm is somewhat encouraging.  I’ve learned over the years that the gfs is typically the last one to the party for when a snow storm does hit.  so seeing it show a snow storm now makes me wonder if maybe it truly is on to something 

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06Z FV3, continues the theme of a more amplified solution which impacts farther north.

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6z GEFS even slightly better than 00z for this timeframe. 

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00Z EPS Control paints a picture a bit more aligned with the GFS and FV3. Not quite there, but it does show an improved outcome for areas farther north of Virginia and southern PA, especially the eastern areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic, Long Island and southeastern southern New England.

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3 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

06Z FV3, continues the theme of a more amplified solution which impacts farther north.

It is not as amped as the 00z run - even later with catching the arctic jet piece. Still delivers what amounts to over running snow for MidAtl. As it tries to intensify past 40N, and catch that AJ, it belts NE inland regions. 

More moving pieces = more potential flies in the ointment. 

At least we're tracking systems more in keeping with the season (even if I am anti-snow these days). 

Couple more runs like this will have me putting the chains on the Kubota - and WILL fulfill the prophecy that HM is a near perfect reverse barometer. 

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The teleconnections for this time frame as per EPS are not that bad for this time frame.

AO is negative

EPO is basically neutral

NAO is switching to positive

PNA is positive.

 

As per GEFS

AO is negative

EPO is positive tanking to flip to negative around the 15th or 16th.

NAO going from neutral to negative.

PNA is positive.

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Sorry, OT, but just noticed my temp is 18.  First time in the teens since 12-19 and second time since 12-11.  Normal low for OXC is 16.

 

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5 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

It is not as amped as the 00z run - even later with catching the arctic jet piece. Still delivers what amounts to over running snow for MidAtl. As it tries to intensify past 40N, and catch that AJ, it belts NE inland regions. 

More moving pieces = more potential flies in the ointment. 

At least we're tracking systems more in keeping with the season (even if I am anti-snow these days). 

Couple more runs like this will have me putting the chains on the Kubota - and WILL fulfill the prophecy that HM is a near perfect reverse barometer. 

Agreed. 

As compared to the ECMWF is still more amped, but not as the 00Z run.

The more the moving pieces, the greater the chaotic fun! :classic_laugh:

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EPS mean

96AFF26D-666B-4BD4-88E4-5F255C3DDB51.thumb.png.a009948848b16587e34d20edd6b75744.png

Timing is all over with individual members

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Was that a triple phaser?

 

4 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Affirmative - and that makes it a bit more unbelievable. FV-XXX is as well. 

From what I've seen - they are alone in that depiction

 

No. I don't believe it 

Grumpy-Cat.jpg

Edited by Uscg ast
To clarify
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Recency bias and the nature of the interactions here would say to me that keeping an eye on the Canadian and ukie would be a wise move. I expect the others to change it up just when you think they have it  

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3 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

By days 5-7 (Sat-Mon), the aforementioned split flow begins to play a larger role as the Pacific energy separates into northern and southern stream components, while yet another amplified wave approaches the West Coast. Southern stream shortwave energy should cross the Four Corners region Fri and reach the southern plains Sat, while the northern stream component initially weakens as it encounters anticyclonic flow before amplifying once again as it reaches the northern plains/Midwest Fri-Sat. The Sat-Sun time period is when the complexities begin as to how these two features will (or will not) interact, potentially resulted in a coastal low pressure system off the Eastern Seaboard by Sun-Mon. The GFS has for a couple runs shown a highly phased system with a relatively intense low pressure system off the East Coast, but has also been fairly inconsistent. The ECMWF, on the other hand, has shown a less phased/more suppressed system that moves more quickly out to sea, and has also been quite consistent in depicting this type of solution (with a fair degree of support from ECENS/GEFS means as well). Given the low predictability of such an evolution on days 6-7, opted to go heavily toward a solution more like the ensemble means and ECMWF (and GFS from 12Z Sun). The next system approaching the West Coast by day 6-7 is reflected by a range of possible model solutions varying in timing as well as amplitude. Thus, an ensemble mean approach is preferred here as well. Given these considerations, the forecast during days 5-7 was gradually trended to weight ECENS and GEFS ensemble means more heavily than deterministic guidance.

 

10 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

 

No. 

Grumpy-Cat.jpg

No? :hmm:

As in you disagree - or as in, you don't want? 

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At this point I am happy to say that we atleast have a true winter system to track with that being said it does seem like the interaction between the northern and southern branch is stronger than previously depicted storms this season. Given that the  gfs has the more progressive model this really has me thinking whether or not the Euro has a good grip on this storm especially since it is known for over amplyfing storms. 

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The emotional side of me says I hope the system develops and hold like the gfs, but we all know that we cant make informed decisions solely based on emotion; The split flow jet hasn't been nice to some of us on the NE / MA this year, maybe something can come together, but the pattern and storms past suggest otherwise. 

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46 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

 

No? :hmm:

As in you disagree - or as in, you don't want? 

Sorry... I meant as in I refuse to believe it (hence angry cat).. I should have clarified. 

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