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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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You can see the moisture get squashed on the loop.

467677357_1-918znamloopof700mb.gif.e4803e665c88c29637921a3fb57e6f55.gif

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2 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Actually think that's a very good map, and conveys what I thought yesterday with nyc/li being to northern extent of precip.

 

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

And looking at the RH at 700mb, you can see the NE is still not in this.  The 700 low moved slower, but the dry confluence area is further south and west.  As @PASnow84 pointed out, we'd like for that confluence to move out faster.  

707180956_1-918znam700rhtrend.gif.9172ffeaa1f9350c15e3d6c14585e01b.gif

Yep - I'm repeating but, it's not the cold that is the problem, it's the dry cold

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In re: NAM.

Sure it did well in a couple of instance where the system was a wound up coastal. Yet - I can't recall it scoring coups in over running disjointed messes. 

From my FB page this morning (snippet)

Quote

The S half of PA is more certain to see some snow, than the north, but we'll watch for changes. In general, we're most likely talking a low end to moderate total (think between 2-6" of snow here) - but those are just initial estimates. If I had to lay a bet, it would be in the 2-3" range. Timing looks to be Sat evening into Sunday mid-day.

 

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We see the dry line coming down to the PA/NY border, what is stopping precipitation from getting up to the border?  Is there an optima humidity level for snow to fall, like 60%, 75%, etc?

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29 minutes ago, LUCC said:

NAM has held it's own and scored a couple coups the last several winter seasons. 

Hey I am on board with anything that helps us get some white stuff but I am also realistic and see the writing on the wall here at least for my area.

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For future reference though - one has to like the position of the Canadian HP and at decent strength. IMHO, once they start to show up there and in that good of shape, they tend to make a "habit" of it. A micro pattern, if you will. 

 

Therefore, if any put together system does materialize, then it's game on for all. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

We see the dry line coming down to the PA/NY border, what is stopping precipitation from getting up to the border?  Is there an optima humidity level for snow to fall, like 60%, 75%, etc?

Usually, anything over 55% is my guidepost. 

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The nearly worthless ICON does throw more QPF Northward, FW that is worth (and that's not much)

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

We see the dry line coming down to the PA/NY border, what is stopping precipitation from getting up to the border?  Is there an optima humidity level for snow to fall, like 60%, 75%, etc?

I usually think 60-65%. But there has to be some lift going on, or something to stir it up or else its just 60% humidity.

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15 minutes ago, RobB said:

image.png.ab4503001d023adbef218499866cd733.png

You can ask JD - sometimes I wonder if I'm not actually Cranky and I "sleep post". It's uncanny how often we are on the same page. 

If you ask RTC2, I can be even more "cranky" than him at times. 

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4 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

For future reference though - one has to like the position of the Canadian HP and at decent strength. IMHO, once they start to show up there and in that good of shape, they tend to make a "habit" of it. A micro pattern, if you will. 

 

Therefore, if any put together system does materialize, then it's game on for all. 

 

So are you lubin' the snow blower or not? Because that's my guidepost for whether or not I'm gonna need to prep down here. 

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

I usually think 60-65%. But there has to be some lift going on, or something to stir it up or else its just 60% humidity.

Great point. I guess I thought that was presumed

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7 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Usually, anything over 55% is my guidepost. 

We have to add the dew factor in as well cause we are looking at dews in the teens or lower on the fringe which will mean lots of Virga for those northern areas and not much if any reaching the surface.

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1 minute ago, ryanduff said:

So are you lubin' the snow blower or not? Because that's my guidepost for whether or not I'm gonna need to prep down here. 

Heck I haven't even looked for the shovel (for Mrs UTS) yet. 

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Hopefully the sun angle won’t cut our totals down.....:chicken_dance-176:🤣🤣

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Posted (edited)

Have to see this for myself.  Probably should wait for the 18z gfs though.  Speaking of the GFS - I encourage you to visit the long range thread or see the end of the 12z GFS run!

image.png.b8b02a487350eeef80a7628cc2249c79.pngimage.png.a24c29c44bf701d5f6724f2b7a0f8749.png

image.png.6b4cb575a0d1db9fac1515ef5a4a6b5b.png  image.png.67c498145ccac98b112911a8141c03f0.png

Edited by StretchCT

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That finger action out front is really starting to show on all the models.

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2 minutes ago, Mtksurfer said:

Hopefully the sun angle won’t cut our totals down.....:chicken_dance-176:🤣🤣

You're on the North Shore , if you see any flakes up there I will make you supreme leader of WX Disco for a day. LOL, no chance IMHO. The_Wish_Casting_Monkey

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Mtksurfer said:

Hopefully the sun angle won’t cut our totals down.....:chicken_dance-176:🤣🤣

Can't cut zero:classic_laugh:

Edited by StretchCT
forgot to use emoji
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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Can't cut zero:classic_laugh:

Negative snow? Does that mean rain? Mud?

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2 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Negative snow? Does that mean rain? Mud?

Noooo.. don't mention mud!

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Noooo.. don't mention mud!

Good news - we keep this snowdome up around the Northeast and mud season will certainly not be as bad.

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Noooo.. don't mention mud!

(*props to all who get the reference)

mudd.PNG.a058a82193d9910a7b7a07af8bd947b5.PNG

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1 minute ago, Snowadelphia said:

Good news - we keep this snowdome up around the Northeast and mud season will certainly not be as bad.

It's been mud season since April around here!

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