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Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Yesterdays 12z euro precip

1158880567_1-612zeuro48hrprecip.thumb.png.1d525335e62d12bed914c0e50fd45312.png

0z euro precip

1627169815_1-70zeuro48hrprecip.thumb.png.fbf956b7040bb1dfb2ad99a721165c22.png

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The GFS and XXX have shown enough "hit" runs for this to grab my interest. Really hope some of the other models come around today.

Looks like the surface LP is northern most extent of the member cluster on 6z. I'm thinking it should have shown a low placed off VA again.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_27.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

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image.thumb.png.be4a41a8447fd25b2d2ba80f9d4b5d78.png

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168 hour 6-8 day analogs look rather impressive.   Here’s the mean 

5D80AA16-314E-44C1-9313-243C27A99269.png

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4 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

HM stressing caution?

I just put on my big daddy hat. 

Oh boy a little to premature 

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Henry M is about as reliable as Casey Anthony is as a babysitter lol I don't put a lot of stock in much of what he says.  AccuWeather is a big hype machine in my opinion.

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What to expect as we get head towards the 12Z GFS frames for this thread´s time period?

  • A continuation of its recent runs;
  • A FV-XXX similar outcome from earlier runs, a low closer to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
  • A more southern outcome, keeping the desired snow for the Virginians and folks from Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ

Let´s see how strong the high pressure over SE Canada is on this run.

Early in the time frame, let´s look for the placement of the surface low pressure, how close to the GOMEX coast it tracks, a bit farther north, increases the chances of a good hit from VA northward to New England.

Closer to the GOMEX coast, the southern stream would need help from the northern stream to be able to amplify enough to make the turn NE, otherwise it would be a VA, NC and southern PA special.

 

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1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

What to expect as we get head towards the 12Z GFS frames for this thread´s time period?

  • A continuation of its recent runs;
  •  A FV-XXX similar outcome from earlier runs, a low closer to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
  • A more southern outcome, keeping the desired snow for the Virginians and folks from Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ

Let´s see how strong the high pressure over SE Canada is on this run.

Early in the time frame, let´s look for the placement of the surface low pressure, how close to the GOMEX coast it tracks, a bit farther north, increases the chances of a good hit from VA northward to New England.

Closer to the GOMEX coast, the southern stream would need help from the northern stream to be able to amplify enough to make the turn NE, otherwise it would be a VA, NC and southern PA special.

 

Just hoping to still see a storm. Have to believe with as bad as the GFS is, its not the lead horse in any long range guess. 

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11 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

What to expect as we get head towards the 12Z GFS frames for this thread´s time period?

  • A continuation of its recent runs;
  • A FV-XXX similar outcome from earlier runs, a low closer to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
  • A more southern outcome, keeping the desired snow for the Virginians and folks from Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ

Let´s see how strong the high pressure over SE Canada is on this run.

Early in the time frame, let´s look for the placement of the surface low pressure, how close to the GOMEX coast it tracks, a bit farther north, increases the chances of a good hit from VA northward to New England.

Closer to the GOMEX coast, the southern stream would need help from the northern stream to be able to amplify enough to make the turn NE, otherwise it would be a VA, NC and southern PA special.

 

Good info. Very helpful to have some insight of variables to look out for as the 12z unfolds. Thank you!

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The icon looks very similar to the overnight euro.  One would have to hedge or lean that way atm until proven otherwise.... but I mean, it’s gotta snow eventually right ?   Leaning towards euro but throwing my money on the gfs, it’s getting great odds 

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24 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Henry M is about as reliable as Casey Anthony is as a babysitter lol I don't put a lot of stock in much of what he says.  AccuWeather is a big hype machine in my opinion.

Henry's not at Accuweather anymore.  And he's not hyping the storm.  

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The "broken clock is right twice a day" approach. I like it. I'm in too The_Wish_Casting_Monkey

5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The icon looks very similar to the overnight euro.  One would have to hedge or lean that way atm until proven otherwise.... but I mean, it’s gotta snow eventually right ?   Leaning towards euro but throwing my money on the gfs, it’s getting great odds 

 

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6 minutes ago, Squepper said:

Good info. Very helpful to have some insight of variables to look out for as the 12z unfolds. Thank you!

You are welcome.

From time to time is a good way to start a model run of bigger interest.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The icon looks very similar to the overnight euro.  One would have to hedge or lean that way atm until proven otherwise.... but I mean, it’s gotta snow eventually right ?   Leaning towards euro but throwing my money on the gfs, it’s getting great odds 

ICON sucks. 

CMC sucks. 

GFS sucks. 

euro/ukie good (but still with plenty of flaws). day 5 is always critical and were getting closer to that time frame. 

just hoping to have a storm to track. 

Edited by MDBlueRidge

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sure looks like 12z gfs is going to double down. at hour 108 taking a drink from the gulf

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7 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Just hoping to still see a storm. Have to believe with as bad as the GFS is, its not the lead horse in any long range guess. 

If you go to the casino, play roulette and always bet on a certain number, it will eventually come up. You might be bankrupt when it does and asking Cousin Lenny for an extension, but when it does hit, whew baby! 

The GFS really pushed the northern stream phase causing a major storm and it doesn't fully integrate the southern stream energy until pretty late which is interesting. The ICON (meh) and Euro aren't showing that. Also, from what's we've seen this season, I lean toward no for the northern MA and NE but there is a path. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Just hoping to still see a storm. Have to believe with as bad as the GFS is, its not the lead horse in any long range guess. 

I agree however in some cases the GFS has been the first to sniff some solutions out. 

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Just now, shaulov4 said:

I agree however in some cases the GFS has been the first to sniff some solutions out. 

I do not disagree with this. And the FV3 has scored a couple coups. But in general... 

 

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Goofus is not going to back down on this run...

Buckle up...

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5 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

The "broken clock is right twice a day" approach. I like it. I'm in too The_Wish_Casting_Monkey

 

Ha ha I’m glad somebody else got that

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9 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The icon looks very similar to the overnight euro.  One would have to hedge or lean that way atm until proven otherwise.... but I mean, it’s gotta snow eventually right ?   Leaning towards euro but throwing my money on the gfs, it’s getting great odds 

With that 12Z german ICON run, we can clearly see how the storm stops progressing northward as a strong high pressure tracks southeastward and blocks the storms poleward track. The high pressure keeps the storm to the Virginians.

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Just now, MDBlueRidge said:

Goofus is not going to back down on this run...

Buckle up...

  Yeah GFS is going to be big      Good stream interaction

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

sure looks like 12z gfs is going to double down. at hour 108 taking a drink from the gulf

I like the play by play, wish I had a am radio and the garage playing the long range runs

Edited by KENNYP2339

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