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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Trend is not the friend with this one. Keeps getting weaker. 

Great cold though! Good for ski resorts! 

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That Hi pressure in Canada is gonna make all the difference with this for Delmarva. The runs seem to have it coming south around Sunday afternoon. Delaware can't catch a break. lol

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Constantly making cyclones all alone!

gem_asnow_neus_19.png

Edited by avsguy

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Not a lot of time today (so far), but in checking the precip trend for the gfs... not good.  And kinda surprising given the 6z GEFS isn't doing the same.  

1733096607_1-1012zgfspreciptrend.thumb.gif.6d4ee4422cf6a5f84afe9f12ca5957b7.gif

2046048912_1-106zgefspreciptrend.thumb.gif.10824fdd69b64ab0ac6573fd6ac8270a.gif

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7 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Constantly making cyclones all alone!

gem_asnow_neus_19.png

If the Canadian gets this one right after how well it performed in early dec I am going to take it as proof that when Canadian hp is the key player then the Canadian models have it covered. 

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Not sure how seriously I'm taking that 12z operational GFS run

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4 minutes ago, 1816 said:

If the Canadian gets this one right after how well it performed in early dec I am going to take it as proof that when Canadian hp is the key player then the Canadian models have it covered. 

And since they can probably keep their models up and running to date :classic_biggrin:

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1 minute ago, 1816 said:

If the Canadian gets this one right after how well it performed in early dec I am going to take it as proof that when Canadian hp is the key player then the Canadian models have it covered. 

This is what I'm thinking. If they have a better handle on that HP, it'll win here. That bad boy is definitely gonna make or break this system - the jump from hr72-78 was KILLER.

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2" is a win for me.  Is that realistic for Pittsburgh?  Seems the models are saying about that.

The SREF plume has jumped to a 1.5" mean.

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9 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

2" is a win for me.  Is that realistic for Pittsburgh?  Seems the models are saying about that.

The SREF plume has jumped to a 1.5" mean.

I'd say 1-3 inches is where I'd put us right now. We'll be effected by some overrunning. It could outperform due to temps to as much as 4 inches but those numbers have a higher likelihood the further south you go. 

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I found this hard to believe until I just checked but we have had ONLY 2 days at DCA where we have officially recorded more than 4 inches since 2014! With that said, I believe we will see another 2 inch light snow event for this storm.  The high to the north wants to make this a mid-southern VA special.

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12z UKMET

1348974889_1-1012zukmet.PNG.d729515280721f4575bcef8f0bd7b839.PNG

First 3 plots are 12hr apart, then goes to 24hrs

1942937590_1-1012zukmettrack.PNG.7abe1172eac5893cee33d0db821fc671.PNG

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3 hours ago, ryanduff said:

Snobal? Is that you?

snobal1.JPG.f67b1c851bd7224fe8f90cacddc623b5.JPG

Edited by Miller A
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1/10 12Z UKMET 96 hour total precip.

image.thumb.png.1c5f6a58eeb407cd139ccaf81949a27e.png

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All these lamentations. I'm not sure what folks were expecting out of this - surely not the ridiculous totals put out at D8+ I hope. 

I've been expecting 2-3" all along and now even the SREF's are trending in that direction for IMBY:classic_happy:

Capture.thumb.PNG.a282dfe41f7bfd072663706f56cf77db.PNG

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7 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

All these lamentations. I'm not sure what folks were expecting out of this - surely not the ridiculous totals put out at D8+ I hope.

Tried to point that out yesterday...h5 just looks dismal for a bigger snow event...positive oriented trough, heavy confluence over top. The s/w is fighting an uphill battle until it rounds the base of that longwave trough over eastern North America...when it's out in the Atlantic. Hopefully a lot more opportunities coming up though...

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Not a lot of time today (so far), but in checking the precip trend for the gfs... not good.  And kinda surprising given the 6z GEFS isn't doing the same.  

1733096607_1-1012zgfspreciptrend.thumb.gif.6d4ee4422cf6a5f84afe9f12ca5957b7.gif

2046048912_1-106zgefspreciptrend.thumb.gif.10824fdd69b64ab0ac6573fd6ac8270a.gif

Coming in line from my thoughts from monday.... though I may be a little to far north with the precip cutoff of nyc/li.  Will prob end up being near central Jersey for anything more then flurries.

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A booker is all I have wanted from this for the past few days. Had some higher hopes in the long range but dwindled as we rolled closer. Setup just wasn't there for something great. Who is ready to get let down on the next one?!?! Know PARD is :classic_ninja:

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2 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

A booker is all I have wanted from this for the past few days. Had some higher hopes in the long range but dwindled as we rolled closer. Setup just wasn't there for something great. Who is ready to get let down on the next one?!?! Know PARD is :classic_ninja:

PARD is already down about the 2020-2021 winter season. PV doesn't look favorable. no Cold around. 

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26 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

All these lamentations. I'm not sure what folks were expecting out of this - surely not the ridiculous totals put out at D8+ I hope. 

I've been expecting 2-3" all along and now even the SREF's are trending in that direction for IMBY:classic_happy:

Capture.thumb.PNG.a282dfe41f7bfd072663706f56cf77db.PNG

Darn you and your reasonable expectations. 

Snow starvation makes folks do crazy things. 

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15 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Darn you and your reasonable expectations. 

Snow starvation makes folks do crazy things. 

Had some snowflakes this morning, took the edge off.  Hoping the ground freezes so get to the shed for firewood without having my boot sucked off by the mud.

Some light snow would have been nice from this - didn't expect anymore.  Happy for the DC area and to have the chance to commiserate with you all.  

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Does Stormtracker have an account here? I miss that guy.. 

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Ukie and Canadian looking like a bigger deal for my area than the euro/gfs or nam.  Something about that combo, maybe the last storm last month, has me wondering if they're about to score a coup. 

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Not a lot of time today (so far), but in checking the precip trend for the gfs... not good.  And kinda surprising given the 6z GEFS isn't doing the same.  

1733096607_1-1012zgfspreciptrend.thumb.gif.6d4ee4422cf6a5f84afe9f12ca5957b7.gif

2046048912_1-106zgefspreciptrend.thumb.gif.10824fdd69b64ab0ac6573fd6ac8270a.gif

crazy winter we have had lots of rain would have been a lot of snow. there is always next season

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Euro update

0z precip v 12z

1130535082_1-100zeuroprecip.thumb.png.91c474d61b0919b7bde1302523caa039.png

1747418793_1-1012zeuroprecip.thumb.png.dc9ae8f289e9e5bcf0c2d6e517592d17.png1722028924_1-1012zeurosnow.thumb.png.8d4d3a1672e926bdb79ac063969d2b9f.png

12z Snow map

 

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