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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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What causes the storm to weaken as it comes east then begin to redevelop? PEr the latest NAM, some areas of Missouri may see upwards of a foot of snow!

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Here's a look at the FV3-GFS trend. I know a lot of people are trashing it, cranky is calling it completely useless for forecasting because it is unpredictable. Yet for this storm it seems fairly consistent with the trend - too fast and slowly reeling it in over time. A lack of major jumps, just slow movement. Any thoughts?

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.gif.a0bd32f3a0d9390fdc04c91790c49e04.gif

 

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46 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man... Do you just focus on what we are not getting? Give the pattern a chance to make it's change. 1/20 has been on the table for quite sometime now. Not just from some of the CT Mets...but, several other sources as well. I can almost predict your responses now. 😂😂😂  if you think its over and one with, than why torture yourself on this site? 

 ( what im hoping for is that 1 great blizzard to make us all forget about what has happened up till now..then we will all be happy as a pig in..Sh&$

hey now come the pattern has been changing since dec

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4 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

He IS known as "the OTHER JB" y'know?

JB - 1.  Joe Bastardi - easily excited and intense met (bodybuilder and wrestler), formerly at Accuweather, now at Weatherbell.  2. Justin Berk - met out of Baltimore, more commonly called Justin rather than JB.

From: 

Maybe I'll update to "the other JB"

 

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6 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

He IS known as "the OTHER JB" y'know?

And comments such as this are why:classic_dry:

JB.PNG.6852ae0bb5c878362ab7d3993f8c3722.PNG

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3 minutes ago, NovaWxWarrior said:

What causes the storm to weaken as it comes east then begin to redevelop? PEr the latest NAM, some areas of Missouri may see upwards of a foot of snow!

Mountains as it nears them, but I also noticed the 1013 going to 1018 as it moved east well before the mountains. Not sure why that is.

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2 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

And comments such as this are why:classic_dry:

JB.PNG.6852ae0bb5c878362ab7d3993f8c3722.PNG

thank you 100 times over. He always seem to have a decent write up and then slaps you with "I like the Canadian Model Best"

Ouch. 

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On 1/6/2019 at 8:35 AM, paletitsnow63 said:

Have I got a snow map for DT!   0Z EPS member #5.  Snobal we need you to send this map over to DT immediately!  45" in Richmond and its on the EPS :classic_biggrin:

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010600_240_493_215_m5.png

This happened not to long ago and the system was suppressed even further south. Nice surgar high. I see the above WPC maps posted and that low is pretty far south.

image.jpg

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2 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

thank you 100 times over. He always seem to have a decent write up and then slaps you with "I like the Canadian Model Best"

Ouch. 

I, actually, love his analysis of storms past - he is very knowledgeable and points out all the key factors that made a storm a storm (he was, aptly, from Berks Co. PA, originally). His case studies are par excellent - his forecasts are decent until, as you point out, he throws junk in such as "oooh the Canadian should be taken seriously because the High is in Canada".

 

I get it, I really do. The first year or two I started doing this I thought the same way - I don't have to tell you how that worked out back when. Being right twice out of a hundred times leaves one a bit "jaded".  :classic_laugh:

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GEFS is following the operational now.   No longer has any favorable members for north of DE

124662604_1-1012zgefsforecast.thumb.gif.d697a576d2e2b5f937cf5ae86f78863c.gif

192498447_1-1012zgefspreciptrend.thumb.gif.7874fb0772c17db204f0b0369afb153e.gif

 

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12 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

And comments such as this are why:classic_dry:

JB.PNG.6852ae0bb5c878362ab7d3993f8c3722.PNG

"Will storm be suppressed south or fight back?" 

Tune in at 11 for more. 😂

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Our forecast went from 1 inch to 3 to 5  then to acummating snows now to nothing lol

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16 minutes ago, bucikaroo said:

Our forecast went from 1 inch to 3 to 5  then to acummating snows now to nothing lol

I think if you stick with 1-3" you wont be that far off.  That sounds like model hugging to me from the local mets!

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7 hours ago, 1816 said:

Steady at 2. I expect an increase at some point. Clustered mainly between 1 and 4 right now. 

Up to about 3.5. Much bigger spread and a significant amount of plumes were still on the climb. I would think it could double by this time tomorrow. Even euro was showing about 7 earlier. 

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18z GFS precip trend

416468437_1-10gfs18zpreciptrend.thumb.gif.832268d3efd24270ec0656acca08af41.gif

1416494451_1-1018zgfssnow.thumb.png.d0d59c72ec40facd3ed2e3e9d2ccf429.png

Edited by StretchCT

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Since no one seems to exsist in the southeast section I'll just ask here.  It seems to me and has for a few days now that us down the piedmont of the Carolinas will be getting an ice storm.  The questions for you guys are, do you think the models are handling the cold properly and how bad of an ice storm do you guys think it'll be?

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20 minutes ago, Kohler7 said:

Since no one seems to exsist in the southeast section I'll just ask here.  It seems to me and has for a few days now that us down the piedmont of the Carolinas will be getting an ice storm.  The questions for you guys are, do you think the models are handling the cold properly and how bad of an ice storm do you guys think it'll be?

January CAD is nothing to mess with - and always holds the "best" potential for damaging ice storms (IMHO). I'll look a bit deeper and see what I can come up with - but certainly the Pisgah-Ashville region should not shrug off that threat. 

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19 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

January CAD is nothing to mess with - and always holds the "best" potential for damaging ice storms (IMHO). I'll look a bit deeper and see what I can come up with - but certainly the Pisgah-Ashville region should not shrug off that threat. 

Thank you.

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1 hour ago, avsguy said:

I think if you stick with 1-3" you wont be that far off.  That sounds like model hugging to me from the local mets!

You got that correct

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

I, actually, love his analysis of storms past - he is very knowledgeable and points out all the key factors that made a storm a storm (he was, aptly, from Berks Co. PA, originally). His case studies are par excellent - his forecasts are decent until, as you point out, he throws junk in such as "oooh the Canadian should be taken seriously because the High is in Canada".

 

I get it, I really do. The first year or two I started doing this I thought the same way - I don't have to tell you how that worked out back when. Being right twice out of a hundred times leaves one a bit "jaded".  :classic_laugh:

He recently attempted to correlate the tsunami and winter storms if that says anything.

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For what it is worth  our AW saysc6-10 for my area. I take with grain of salt. 

CD259AB1-A4AF-43F5-A336-95DF68BBC702.thumb.png

AA89C83A-EA89-49DC-AB75-DE0B0E31EFAD.thumb.png

 

 

Edited by PlanetMaster
Please NO ADS, we are not supporting Accuweather

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OK, here's the deal, and man wish I had some straw for all the bailing in here. The reason I did not join the forum earlier is I am the reason for the lack of snows. The person that spends the most money preparing for winter is the culprit. Bought a 2019 SUV after the early November snow bomb here. Needed to replace the SAAB as it is terrible in the snow, plus MJ's hurtful comments. Not a flake thereafter.  Want more proof? Sun roof exploded on the new SUV Fri nite. Pulled the SAAB out of the garage for work Monday. Monday afternoon lite sleet and snow. Monday nite it snowed to coat the ground. So read the BSR theory till your eyes bleed; study each model run for hours. Repair done. Pick up the SUV, garage the SAAB, snow stays south. Wait till next week and use the SAAB, storm comes north. That simple, you pick. If you wish, I can save the pickup till the 19-20 storm. Bribes accepted.

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1 hour ago, RTC2 said:

OK, here's the deal, and man wish I had some straw for all the bailing in here. The reason I did not join the forum earlier is I am the reason for the lack of snows. The person that spends the most money preparing for winter is the culprit. Bought a 2019 SUV after the early November snow bomb here. Needed to replace the SAAB as it is terrible in the snow, plus MJ's hurtful comments. Not a flake thereafter.  Want more proof? Sun roof exploded on the new SUV Fri nite. Pulled the SAAB out of the garage for work Monday. Monday afternoon lite sleet and snow. Monday nite it snowed to coat the ground. So read the BSR theory till your eyes bleed; study each model run for hours. Repair done. Pick up the SUV, garage the SAAB, snow stays south. Wait till next week and use the SAAB, storm comes north. That simple, you pick. If you wish, I can save the pickup till the 19-20 storm. Bribes accepted.

New Tripoli, huh? I'm up near Hazleton. What was your handle in the old AccuWeather forum? Inquiring minds want to know.....

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