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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

NCEP WPC snowfall (Virginia 50 and 95 percentiles and Pennsylvania 50 and 95 percentiles; comparison):

Virginia:

wpc_snow_72h_50_virginia_72.thumb.png.c17f2439a4321ee873bc76d57afec675.pngwpc_snow_72h_95_virginia_72.thumb.png.ee21ff91b6966ce032c9e51bcaa7a84c.png

Pennsylvania: 

wpc_snow_72h_50_pennsylvania_72.thumb.png.488270f739f46991a33b46f246a33bb4.pngwpc_snow_72h_95_pennsylvania_72.thumb.png.3ea939910ae41a8ee3a7ceeae6c13a61.png

 

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8 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

You look at that and think that purple streak will continue East this is just up to a certain hour but its not, the snow just disappears in the dry air. Ugh!

Precisely, Master.

Very bone dry High pressure bullying the storm to the point it obliterates moisture lift east and northeast of the Apps.

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@UTSwiinii, good morning!

Is your area covered in those WPC maps I posted?

 

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11 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

NCEP WPC snowfall (Virginia 50 and 95 percentiles and Pennsylvania 50 and 95 percentiles; comparison):

Virginia:

wpc_snow_72h_50_virginia_72.thumb.png.c17f2439a4321ee873bc76d57afec675.pngwpc_snow_72h_95_virginia_72.thumb.png.ee21ff91b6966ce032c9e51bcaa7a84c.png

Pennsylvania: 

wpc_snow_72h_50_pennsylvania_72.thumb.png.488270f739f46991a33b46f246a33bb4.pngwpc_snow_72h_95_pennsylvania_72.thumb.png.3ea939910ae41a8ee3a7ceeae6c13a61.png

 

Lol that little blue dot about 50 miles west of Philly is over my house! Must be picking up on ridge tops like UTS alluded to in his office write up ..I typically get a tad more than surrounding areas as I sit at 700-850  feet elevation in my township ... I’ll take my 2 inches !! Second biggest storm of season (5.8” Nov. 15 first and only other snow I had) lol ... good luck to everyone congrats down south too!!  

 

I see even a tinier blue speck near Delaware .. that one’s not me ! Lol 😂 that’s over my Aunts house though 

Edited by Jblizz68
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4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

@UTSwiinii, good morning!

Is your area covered in those WPC maps I posted?

 

Yes - I am just due N of Hbg - essentially right on the line between the purples and the dark blue. As JBlizz commented, my place is the front of the ridge and valley region of PA where elevation and "cold pool" valleys help to enhance snow totals ever so modestly. My elev is ~850' (compared to KMDT at ~300').  The ridges create down welling of air, trapping cold (at times) within the valleys (unless they are wide valleys which mutes that influence)

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FWIW ... I know this MET focuses More so on his own region but I’ll just throw this out there as it may pertain to many on this thread. 

11E4676E-D293-4169-A94F-C24531446067.jpeg

Edited by Jblizz68

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31 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Yes - I am just due N of Hbg - essentially right on the line between the purples and the dark blue. As JBlizz commented, my place is the front of the ridge and valley region of PA where elevation and "cold pool" valleys help to enhance snow totals ever so modestly. My elev is ~850' (compared to KMDT at ~300').  The ridges create down welling of air, trapping cold (at times) within the valleys (unless they are wide valleys which mutes that influence)

Nice!

I like that geographical set up you have there. 

Hope the landscape turns wintry brings the winter vibe, so you can enjoy it, as you have been growing found of the seasons occurring during their normal expected periods.

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1 hour ago, Lazman said:

My fabled NAM, the go to model within 24-36 hours of impacts from a Snowstorm shows the NEPA region on the cusp of the precipitation shield. I hear Frankie Valli singing in the background: "so close, so close and yet so far." ~ 😐🎶🌨️😉😆

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_40.png

In 👏

It’s 👏

Wheelhouse 👏

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Yep there it is

yep.PNG

 

NWS:

Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of light snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.

Sunday

A 20 percent chance of light snow before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 30. North wind 5 to 11 mph.

Which to me means NO chance. I don't see anyone North of say S jersey seeing anything more than a flurry just too dry and will be getting drier as the weekend progresses. Notice the winds not S or SE or even ESE but North meaning lights out sweetheart. Many should be expecting a Virga storm further to the North of the center

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6z NAM showed some interesting trends compared to the past day of model runs. The SLP's seem stronger overall compared to before with the western low more willing to "share" with the secondary than spawns of the coast. More significantly, the core of the Canadian high is shifted to the west of Michigan allowing more room for the expansion of precip. At 500mb it seems like there is less east to west fighting going on allowing for a slightly more consolidated H5 setup and slightly less progressive flow. I've noticed a steady creeping trend of the high to the west and low/precip to the ENE of the last 36 hrs which makes it seem slightly less likely to simply be a NAM off run hiccup

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_41.png

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_42.png

namconus_z500_vort_eus_42.png

namconus_z500_vort_eus_44.png

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52 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

FWIW ... I know this MET focuses More so on his own region but I’ll just throw this out there as it may pertain to many on this thread. 

11E4676E-D293-4169-A94F-C24531446067.jpeg

Seems to be forecasting the 95th percentile for many areas as per PVs maps. With the storm weakening as it moves east across the country, this seems more like clickbait than quality weather forecasting. It's probably no coincidence that the forecasters backyard is also in the zone of 6-10" :police-smiley-emoticon:

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00Z EPS snow probability over 3 inches and over 6 inches:

345638909_14-kmEPSProbabilityPrecipSnowundefinedundefined96.thumb.png.526a5326201775c517a763fd73a2633c.png403075298_14-kmEPSProbabilityPrecipSnowMarylandSnowaccumover3-in96.thumb.png.68b30bbb4257b4cdc1c482520ea717ef.png

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I like snow maps .. I like various different Mets opinions from around our region too .. so I’m wondering does anyone have EPAWA first guess maps.. Cranky maps.. Steve D maps? Justin Berk ones or Millersville  University ? Please post if so .. thanks ! 

Latest Nam looks good for northern areas! Keep the trends coming! 

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Last night local news went with 1-3", this morning upped it to 2-4".  Also, the met this morning said the system already looks a little betterthan modeled.

Edited by Ahoff
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18 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

6z NAM showed some interesting trends compared to the past day of model runs. The SLP's seem stronger overall compared to before with the western low more willing to "share" with the secondary than spawns of the coast. More significantly, the core of the Canadian high is shifted to the west of Michigan allowing more room for the expansion of precip. At 500mb it seems like there is less east to west fighting going on allowing for a slightly more consolidated H5 setup and slightly less progressive flow. I've noticed a steady creeping trend of the high to the west and low/precip to the ENE of the last 36 hrs which makes it seem slightly less likely to simply be a NAM off run hiccup

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_41.png

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_42.png

namconus_z500_vort_eus_42.png

namconus_z500_vort_eus_44.png

In most cases the High depiction on those maps would be IDEAL position for a East coast storm but unfortunately NO upper level support to bring it up and a wide open Atlantic to allow it to escape, path of least resistance once again.

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18 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

6z NAM showed some interesting trends compared to the past day of model runs. The SLP's seem stronger overall compared to before with the western low more willing to "share" with the secondary than spawns of the coast. More significantly, the core of the Canadian high is shifted to the west of Michigan allowing more room for the expansion of precip. At 500mb it seems like there is less east to west fighting going on allowing for a slightly more consolidated H5 setup and slightly less progressive flow. I've noticed a steady creeping trend of the high to the west and low/precip to the ENE of the last 36 hrs which makes it seem slightly less likely to simply be a NAM off run hiccup

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_41.png

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_42.png

namconus_z500_vort_eus_42.png

namconus_z500_vort_eus_44.png

Definite improvement over 00z looks more organized and north! Great post thank you ! 

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A glimmer of hope is a dangerous thing. 

But I vote YES for NAM to keep it going for folks. 

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Nws is calling for a dusting to an inch. That might be nice. 

Ground is wonderfully frozen and ready.

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12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Last night local news went with 1-3", this morning upped it to 2-4".  Also, the met this morning said the system already looks a little betterthan modeled.

I would stick with the 1-3 and if it overperforms, great. I still am sticking with south of the city as the best chance of above 3 inches but with temps its possible it could be region wide. Oh to be in DC though. I'm thinking 4-8 in the city which is a little higher than most. It won't be as bad down there as per usual with it being the weekend and the Govt. being partially shut down still. I'll be down there the week of the 21st so that 24-26th storm is going to shut down the city and leave me stuck there. 

BTW...someone asked me to tell them when Maine doesn't look good. Maine doesn't look good. :chicken_dance-176:

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9 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

Nws is calling for a dusting to an inch. That might be nice. 

Ground is wonderfully frozen and ready.

I am already waiting for the thaw to hear more of your mud witticisms

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as @AceGikmo pointed out, the 6z NAM just phased (earlier) causing the slp to migrate north and head more NE than E.  Nice pickup, you beat me to that one.   ATM the change is meaningless except for maybe NJ, but if it becomes a trend, then LI and SE MA may get into it.  ACK gets brushed on this run.

646314766_1-116znam500trendearlierphase.gif.724cbf34c13a7e18fd3f933643fa55a8.gif

Let me add....the NAM also pops an upper low at 500mb.  Its rare not to have snow under one of these and just to the north.  Its evolution is holding it back from hitting those areas.  If it evolves sooner and/or further west, then SE MA is in the game for the first time in many moons.  Of course its only a dusting to an inch or two, but crumbs look appetizing to the hungry. 

162746707_1-116znamcutoff.png.3d935409d6ddbaccad6ec4e7c49394ff.png

Edited by StretchCT

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1 hour ago, Jblizz68 said:

FWIW ... I know this MET focuses More so on his own region but I’ll just throw this out there as it may pertain to many on this thread. 

11E4676E-D293-4169-A94F-C24531446067.jpeg

He is a necessary source, as noted last night, once the storm sets its sites on Va, this forum can become quite lonely, so there is only DT and our local met to rely on for information.  His social skills fall somewhere between a 3 year old and a rattle snake, but he can provide helpful information once the rhetoric is filtered out.  His maps usually do fairly well, and at least he is quick to admit when he busts.

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Just now, JonSnow said:

He is a necessary source, as noted last night, once the storm sets its sites on Va, this forum can become quite lonely, so there is only DT and our local met to rely on for information.  His social skills fall somewhere between a 3 year old and a rattle snake, but he can provide helpful information once the rhetoric is filtered out.  His maps usually do fairly well, and at least he is quick to admit when he busts.

You know nothing Jon Snow

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7 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

You know nothing Jon Snow

I know, I know, I got it

 

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Yup to the comments about the dew points. This is going to be one of these storms on the old site where the accu radar would have been driving people nuts. It will look like it is snowing for hours over top of you, but just won't reach the ground. Going to take a long time to overcome the dryness, and will be curious to see how far north it can be overcome. This was never going to be a bomb in this setup, so hopefully most will keep expectations and look at this as a start. Agree with our UT about step down theory. You don't usually just shatter patterns quickly.

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