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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, RTC2 said:

Yup to the comments about the dew points. This is going to be one of these storms on the old site where the accu radar would have been driving people nuts. It will look like it is snowing for hours over top of you, but just won't reach the ground. Going to take a long time to overcome the dryness, and will be curious to see how far north it can be overcome. This was never going to be a bomb in this setup, so hopefully most will keep expectations and look at this as a start. Agree with our UT about step down theory. You don't usually just shatter patterns quickly.

Double edged sword- Those North will suffer the dry/cold air with Virga city and those South will benefit from the dry/cold air with hi ratios.

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24 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

ATM the change is meaningless except for maybe NJ, but if it becomes a trend, then LI and SE MA may get into it. 

Euro is also "trending" that direction

2086331560_1-1012zeuronearphase.thumb.png.fae95d84a1d0de3b3008e7e43a041e46.png

633163762_1-110zeuronearphase.thumb.png.e955095ffa39cd513629dbaab4f5b565.png

Trying to keep viewership up from the LI, CT, RI and MA people. 

Edited by StretchCT
one run doesn' t make a trend
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3 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Double edged sword- Those North will suffer the dry/cold air with Virga city and those South will benefit from the dry/cold air with hi ratios.

Judging by the maps I have seen so far, I may be very close to the area that either gets a nice snow or significant sleet and freezing rain.  I like to see a good snow, but we have already had power outages in our neighborhood just from the wind, not really looking forward to any potential freezing rain.

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4 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Double edged sword- Those North will suffer the dry/cold air with Virga city and those South will benefit from the dry/cold air with hi ratios.

Looking at the Skew-T for my backyard, it looks like it could be snowing aloft.  The DGZ is HUGE and the DP is close to temps there. 

nam3km_2019011106_fh52_sounding_41.38N_73_33W.png.4b6fb5db4062f6caf0f7711dad9cf31b.png

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6 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Double edged sword- Those North will suffer the dry/cold air with Virga city and those South will benefit from the dry/cold air with hi ratios.

A storm where the short range models have some real value.

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If I get a dusting out of this .. it will quadruple my month of December amount hands down lol ... anyone else tired of seeing fantasy storms long range only to see a slider or cutter? Lol thank goodness we still have February and March .. I’m still looking for the Polar Voretx someone mentioned would be here this month and it seems Farmers Almsnac has a partnership with the Dgex and icon lol 

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12Z NAM shows a much better-structured storm.

Not decayed weak. Precipitation shield is better organized. 

There´s even the NW pivoting motion to the storm as it passes south of Long Island.

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SREF plumes for CPA ticked up by an inch of snow, I wonder what the 12z runs will hold... :hmm-2:

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10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Euro is also "trending" that direction

2086331560_1-1012zeuronearphase.thumb.png.fae95d84a1d0de3b3008e7e43a041e46.png

633163762_1-110zeuronearphase.thumb.png.e955095ffa39cd513629dbaab4f5b565.png

Trying to keep viewership up from the LI, CT, RI and MA people. 

@StretchCT, you are comical but yet an awesome addition to the forum.  I like your style!:classic_biggrin:

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13 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z NAM shows a much better-structured storm.

Not decayed weak. Precipitation shield is better organized. 

There´s even the NW pivoting motion to the storm as it passes south of Long Island.

Stop teasing us!

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1 minute ago, PlanetMaster said:

Stop teasing us!

12Z NAM still looks terrible and aside from @UTSwiinii, everyone else will enjoy a virga storm.

That should tamper expectations.

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z NAM still looks terrible and aside from @UTSwiinii, everyone else will enjoy a virga storm.

That should tamper expectations.

I haven't even seen very wet snow flakes since the Nov 15 storm so a dry flake would be OK at this point. :hmm:

 

BTW I have to do a server reboot in about 20 mins so no one panic

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All this needed to make the northern Mid Atlantic from NE PA through NYC metro and southern CT happy, was a less cold and dry hearted high pressure. 

Just needed a bit of warmth and generosity...

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18 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

SREF plumes for CPA ticked up by an inch of snow, I wonder what the 12z runs will hold... :hmm-2:

Same down here at APG. 1.2" to almost 2.2" ... significant jump considering it almost doubled. Not a lot of snow, but still. 

921798951_ScreenShot2019-01-11at9_39_46AM.png.1096cbb8d2753c45252de4f293ee821e.png

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3 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

I haven't even seen very wet snow flakes since the Nov 15 storm so a dry flake would be OK at this point. :hmm:

 

BTW I have to do a server reboot in about 20 mins so no one panic

That´s rough. A flurry storm would make you happy.

Alright, we won´t panic.

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23 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

@StretchCT, you are comical but yet an awesome addition to the forum.  I like your style!:classic_biggrin:

Thanks, I think.

NAM missed the hook up, which is why I ""ed the trend.  Makes me wonder what the 6z smoked though.  6z is the furthest west.

namconus_z500_vort_neus_fh57_trend.thumb.gif.0602aefa552a106c276b59e62cf135b2.gif

 

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I don't have a whole lot of hope for this storm but it is intriguing in this area. I have a bad feeling I will end up seeing a transition to sleet ( 2/3 of every snow storm in my area ends up with at least some sleet ha). The one thing that is interesting is the models have been playing last minute catchup with the snow totals in the Midwest, most of which nearly doubled in the last 24 hr. So I am curious if it will hold together a little better then currently modeled. Should be interesting to watch.

We do currently have a winter storm watch in my area for 3-5" which is odd to me, they usually wait here and are conservative this seems a little bit jumping the gun to me. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ022&warncounty=MDC045&firewxzone=MDZ022&local_place1=Salisbury MD&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=38.3539&lon=-75.5929#.XDirl_ZFxPY

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23 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z NAM still looks terrible and aside from @UTSwiinii, everyone else will enjoy a virga storm.

That should tamper expectations.

If you're going to tamper with people's expectations, please set them at a more reasonable level. Thanks. 

Edited by 1816

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6 minutes ago, NovaWxWarrior said:

Can someone post the 12z NAM and RGEM when available?

 

no. 

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13 minutes ago, 1816 said:

If you're going to tamper with people's expectations, please set them at a more reasonable level. Thanks. 

2 inches for everyone would work I guess. :classic_laugh:

It´s fitting for the first post of the page...

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Inside the black line will have some lolipops. Higher spots will squeeze out the most. Some of the Same spots as 12/9 storm from VA seem to do very well from this storm. I believe the actual storm will be a little heavier then this. But I do believe this is a pretty good representation of where snow will fall. 

NAM.png

Edited by MDBlueRidge
Boom shakalaka

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download.thumb.PNG.9cdeb23e9c2193698e84b5a76746e0bf.PNG

44 minutes ago, Keith3565 said:

I don't have a whole lot of hope for this storm but it is intriguing in this area. I have a bad feeling I will end up seeing a transition to sleet ( 2/3 of every snow storm in my area ends up with at least some sleet ha). The one thing that is interesting is the models have been playing last minute catchup with the snow totals in the Midwest, most of which nearly doubled in the last 24 hr. So I am curious if it will hold together a little better then currently modeled. Should be interesting to watch.

We do currently have a winter storm watch in my area for 3-5" which is odd to me, they usually wait here and are conservative this seems a little bit jumping the gun to me. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ022&warncounty=MDC045&firewxzone=MDZ022&local_place1=Salisbury MD&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=38.3539&lon=-75.5929#.XDirl_ZFxPY

I was surprised to see Sterling had hoisted the WS Watch so early as well. Usually they seem to start with an advisory and then upgrade to a WS Warning once 2-4 inches of snow is already on the ground. :AnywhereWarm:  Maybe it's an attempt to make up for following that process back on Dec 10 when I got 6 unpredicted inches instead of the flurries, then an inch, then 1-2 that they forecasted before that storm jogged north by 50 miles.

 

This one seems similar in potential track, but more limited in moisture, or it's fighting drier, colder air at the surface. I am less confident this time around that my snow totals will be more than Virginia nuisance level, and that amount is about an inch. Anything more and my state starts shutting down. My SREF plume has trended higher. Was 1-2 last night. Mean now is closer to 3 inches. That might be low if ratios are greater than 10-1 as the plume says .4 QPF.

 

Edited by risingriver
fix image

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I just love when Sterling mismatches their map and detailed forecast. Forecaster discussion doesn't really clarify either. First pic is the expected snowfall forecast.

 

download.PNG.373800869abdc75481bdcfe92c24394a.PNG

But, dig deeper and this is what they say.

Capture1.PNG.c62d71a0c123fb097ec80cce256c19d7.PNG

Map says 4-6, but point forecast says 2-4. WS Watch is posted, but they say there is only a 17% chance of 6+ inches of snow. 

Forecast discussion is mostly a rehash of the 3AM disco post. Nothing new in it. Hard to blame guys who are working without a paycheck today though.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will track through the Gulf Coast States Saturday
into Saturday evening before transferring its energy to a
coastal low off the North and South Carolina Coast by Sunday
morning. The low will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday and
high pressure will return for Sunday night. The closed upper-
level low associated with this system will get sheared apart as
it runs into a strong confluence zone, with shortwave energy and
jet maxes passing through Saturday into Sunday.

For Saturday...High pressure will remain over New England while
the surface ridge axis extends down through the Mid-Atlantic.
The low and mid-level flow will back to the southwest, causing
relatively warmer and more moist air to overrun the surface cold
air in play. At the same time, shortwave energy well ahead of
the upper-level low will pass through the area. The overrunning
and shortwave energy should be enough to cause snow to break out
over much of the area, first across the Potomac Highlands and
Shenandoah Valley Saturday morning and across the rest of the
area Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below freezing
or drop below freezing after precipitation begins, so
accumulating snow is likely.

The same pattern will persist for Saturday night with low
pressure transferring its energy to a coastal low as it passes
by to the south. Overrunning and shortwave energy will continue
to bring snow across the area with accumulation likely.

The coastal low will will move out to sea Sunday and high
pressure will wedge down from the north. This will cause snow to
gradually end from north to south. Details are still a little
uncertain at this time. Latest 00z guidance shows that the best
chance for additional snow accumulation will be south of
Interstate 66 and US 50.

 

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Suppression depression! 

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