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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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1 hour ago, Razo said:

Clark's Valley? I work in Harrisburg and commute on that route sometimes.

Nope - Roberts Valley, the first one behind Blue Mountain (before Fishing Creek Vly even)

41 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

very ballsy. Showing off snow to the snow starved. Notice I didn't do that. Couldn't do that to stretch and plantemaster. they're my friends. 

I wish I had cool friends. (RTC2 is pretty cool, when he's not bustin' my balloons that is)

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10 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Nope - Roberts Valley, the first one behind Blue Mountain (before Fishing Creek Vly even)

I wish I had cool friends. (RTC2 is pretty cool, when he's not bustin' my balloons that is)

I know exactly where you mean! Just looked at a house for sale there actually. Nice little valley tucked away back there.

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1 hour ago, clindner00 said:

In case anyone is wanting to see the fluffy white stuff, I have gotten this in the past 48 hours.  😂.

0B33F174-363D-4D62-BCCF-CC6CF2BD834B.jpeg

Not impressed by someone who doesn't leave house to take pic of their own deck furniture.  I see nature in the background.  Go out there and take some real pics.  :classic_dry:

Sincerely,

Disgruntled in NWNJ

 

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National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
411 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-101-102-
120915-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-
411 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, southern New
Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An accumulating snow is likely from Saturday night into early
Sunday. Snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely from Chester County
east through Greater Philadelphia area to Ocean County New Jersey
with upwards of 2 to 4 inches possible across portions of the
Delmarva.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

 

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Euro outputs - don't ask if you're north of PHL

PHL

SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -2.6    -6.9    1032      83      98    0.08     557     532    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN  -3.2    -5.7    1030      76      99    0.05     557     533    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN  -0.3    -3.9    1027      61      90    0.06     556     535  

ACY

SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -2.2    -6.3    1032      82      98    0.06     559     534    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN  -1.9    -5.5    1030      84      99    0.07     558     535    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN   0.3    -2.1    1026      82      95    0.13     557     537    
MON 00Z 14-JAN  -0.6    -2.5    1025      69      79    0.01     556     536    
MON 06Z 14-JAN  -3.8    -3.1    1025      63      19    0.01     554     534  

DOV

SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -0.9    -5.4    1033      68      97    0.01     563     536    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -1.6    -6.1    1032      88      96    0.10     559     535    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN  -1.4    -3.2    1029      89     100    0.10     559     536    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN  -0.3    -1.4    1026      84      88    0.16     558     537    
MON 00Z 14-JAN  -0.7    -2.2    1025      73      89    0.02     556     536    

BWI  (funny, I typed in BWD and found out that TX is getting more snow than us)

SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -1.1    -5.8    1033      73      98    0.02     562     537    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -1.8    -5.8    1032      87      91    0.12     559     535    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN  -1.8    -3.0    1029      89      99    0.12     559     536    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN  -0.6    -2.5    1026      80      96    0.11     557     537    
MON 00Z 14-JAN  -0.2    -2.9    1026      74      94    0.01     556     535    

RIC

SUN 06Z 13-JAN   0.3     0.2    1030      82      98    0.02     564     540    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN   0.5     1.0    1026      97      99    0.21     562     542    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN   1.3     0.7    1023      97      95    0.29     560     542    
MON 00Z 14-JAN   0.1    -1.2    1024      92      97    0.05     557     538    
MON 06Z 14-JAN  -0.3    -1.8    1025      84      74    0.02     557     537    

 

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image.png.dab6f4bf13b803835cc014658ec031fc.png

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12Z UKIE QPF in MM (liquid)

 

PA_000-072_0000bgb.jpg

Edited by paletitsnow63

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This was the 0Z UKIE QPF.  Comparing to the 12Z there is less QPF on the VA / NC border and a little bit more on the MD line and in DE & S NJ.

 

PA_000-072_0000a.gif

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5 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

This was the 0Z UKIE QPF.  Comparing to the 12Z there is less QPF on the VA / NC border and a little bit more on the MD line and in DE & S NJ.

 

PA_000-072_0000a.gif

Yeah...definitely a good trend for the WV and Pitt area through western MD folk...not that any are my friends...

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I was confuzzled this morning as to why the township had salted our roads already since previous maps were showing only slight showers but from the looks of recent maps I’m kinda excited now and crossing even my toes 

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I just love when the low transitions to the coast right over me - not.  I know it happens all the time but we usually still see decent snow before the transition is done.  Not sure why the models show such a big jump (western KY/TN to OBX) with a "break" in the action just east of the Apps.

Edited by lfunk11

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7 minutes ago, morgdotz said:

I was confuzzled this morning as to why the township had salted our roads already since previous maps were showing only slight showers but from the looks of recent maps I’m kinda excited now and crossing even my toes 

I'm in Orefield, and would just love to see the ground white for a day or so........:classic_cool:

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19 minutes ago, lfunk11 said:

I just love when the low transitions to the coast right over me - not.  I know it happens all the time but we usually still see decent snow before the transition is done.  Not sure why the models show such a big jump (western KY/TN to OBX) with a "break" in the action just east of the Apps.

Happens all the time here, especially if the transfer goes to the benchmark, NOVA always is in the wrong spot...winds coming off of the apps dry the atmosphere out and then (via the new low spinning up off the coast) the circulation is pulling down the cold, dry air from the north.  I am cautiously optimistic we should do well here, thinking 4-6

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Off topic, whatever, but this FOX just right now LITERALLY ran across my window sill here at work.  Odd landscaping that has dirt/mulch up to the sill with some kind of evergreeny type bushes along it. So, it ran across the sill and by the time I got my camera it was crossing the street.  It was in poor health.  I am wondering if it was actually El Chupacabra.  Hope it finds something to eat soon

Aside from that, It's so sunny out that you would never know that is NOt going to snow tomorrow.  Sigh

image.png.3178df52f9744598d4c840cfc9c41331.png

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2 hours ago, clindner00 said:

In case anyone is wanting to see the fluffy white stuff, I have gotten this in the past 48 hours.  😂.

0B33F174-363D-4D62-BCCF-CC6CF2BD834B.jpeg

You see above this post, clindner00,  THAT is how you take a nature pic.   LOLOLOLOL just kiddding with ya

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3 minutes ago, Miller A said:

You see above this post, clinner00,  THAT is how you take a nature pic.   LOLOLOLOL just kiddding with ya

Winter pic please :classic_happy::classic_wink:

Edited by avsguy

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4 minutes ago, Miller A said:

Off topic, whatever, but this FOX just right now LITERALLY ran across my window sill here at work.  Odd landscaping that has dirt/mulch up to the sill with some kind of evergreeny type bushes along it. So, it ran across the sill and by the time I got my camera it was crossing the street.  It was in poor health.  I am wondering if it was actually El Chupacabra.  Hope it finds something to eat soon

Aside from that, It's so sunny out that you would never know that is NOt going to snow tomorrow.  Sigh

image.png.3178df52f9744598d4c840cfc9c41331.png

 

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7 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Winter pic please :classic_happy::classic_wink:

If this was an OBS thread, I'd be covered.  But just remember, you can't spell snow without NO

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44 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Yeah...definitely a good trend for the WV and Pitt area through western MD folk...not that any are my friends...

Yep. Be that way! :snoozer_08: Those mountains of WV and MD should make out pretty well as MDBR alluded to earlier and someone will probably get 8-12 easily. Pittsburgh is tricky. It's cold...and temps should be cold enough for 12:1 to 15:1 ratios. With 12 hours of lightish snow maybe we overperform...maybe?

Edited by Psu1313
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Well we knew this would happen as We went from nothing to a warning same thing happened in November . 

8B905596-8264-4494-951C-FD4B26727662.png

515F8FD8-A1E8-48F1-9A6A-A06CD28E04D4.png

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Don't be a hater, but Sterling is really going balls to the walls with this one now. Upgraded to Winter Storm Warning.

Capture.PNG.1b04d4590f85382e147e8e9354a79303.PNG

Winter Storm Watch areas are responsibility of Blacksburg or Wakefield WFOs. Sterling also dropped most of Maryland and NOVA under WWA. My warning text is below. I'm still thinking totals IMBY right along I95 wind up on the low end of that range, but my county is notorious for the western part doubling the snowfall totals of the eastern part because we often are the transition zone for precip type, although I am not thinking ptype is an issue with this track. 

 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
217 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

VAZ036>040-050-051-056-057-120330-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.190112T1700Z-190113T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.190112T2100Z-190113T1800Z/
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Spotsylvania-King George-
217 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

I am not yet buying the 12z NAM precip totals. @Wtkidz, could well be a ratio thing. Got any soundings? I know GFS snow map is based on 10-1 ratio, and we may be 15-1. .4 inches QPF called for. SREF is trending higher, but I am being stubborn. Latest SREF Plume is up to 5.5 inches for the mean. It was at 3 inches earlier this morning.

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2 minutes ago, risingriver said:

Don't be a hater, but Sterling is really going balls to the walls with this one now. Upgraded to Winter Storm Warning.

Capture.PNG.1b04d4590f85382e147e8e9354a79303.PNG

Winter Storm Watch areas are responsibility of Blacksburg or Wakefield WFOs. Sterling also dropped most of Maryland and NOVA under WWA. My warning text is below. I'm still thinking totals IMBY right along I95 wind up on the low end of that range, but my county is notorious for the western part doubling the snowfall totals of the eastern part because we often are the transition zone for precip type, although I am not thinking ptype is an issue with this track. 

 

I am not yet buying the 12z NAM precip totals. @Wtkidz, could well be a ratio thing. Got any soundings? I know GFS snow map is based on 10-1 ratio, and we may be 15-1. .4 inches QPF called for. SREF is trending higher, but I am being stubborn. Latest SREF Plume is up to 5.5 inches for the mean. It was at 3 inches earlier this morning.

I don't think mixing will be an issue for us, especially since a majority of the precip will come overnight.  I think we will make out quite well (4-6) with this event...

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2 hours ago, RTC2 said:

Agree. that's like snorting lines of sugar in front of a diabetic.

Oh how I've missed you. 

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