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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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7 minutes ago, risingriver said:

Don't be a hater, but Sterling is really going balls to the walls with this one now. Upgraded to Winter Storm Warning.

:gigity:

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The mean of the SREF's for DCA have increased pretty significantly between the 09 and 15Z runs.  This occurred while the highest output has come down by 3.5", more members showing 3-6 than earlier today.

 

  

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North American meoscale looking buff for affected areas on 18z...

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8 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

North American meoscale looking buff for affected areas on 18z...

Hmmmm kinda looking more like the CMC has looked for days :352nmsp:

Edited by avsguy
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16 minutes ago, WeatherDCA said:

The mean of the SREF's for DCA have increased pretty significantly between the 09 and 15Z runs.  This occurred while the highest output has come down by 3.5", more members showing 3-6 than earlier today.

 

  

Now that is a trend you might safely hang your hat on.

 

I tend not to trust overrunning situations. Never get good results with that set up it seems, except for the PDII Blizzard, which was 3 days of epic snow fun thanks to a stalled front and overrrunning. If this setup was in a slower jetstream it could be special.

But I'll be happy with anything in the 3-7 range this time, I just think it's closer to 3-4" than 6-7" IMBY. Someone will probably see 6-8" in Virginia though.

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1 minute ago, avsguy said:

Hmmmm kinda looking more like the CMC :352nmsp:

Stop it you.....

You....

You...

Person. 

Rgem similar as well. 

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18Z NAM vs 12Z snow map through 21Z Sunday.  What is interesting (and it has shown also on the GFS, CMC, Ukie) is that the cutoff to the north keeps moving south run to run but the areas in the south up to about and a little north of the Mason Dixon line keep increasing.

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

namconus_asnow_neus_20.png

Edited by paletitsnow63

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I like sterling's call for 3-5" for much of MD. But could see this being a 4-8" type event for many. Especially for coldest spots. Ratios will be high. 

Edited by MDBlueRidge
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oh man that northern edge took a hit had a feeling with the high pressing down but was still optimistic for the folks around NYC area to get something other then grey.

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A visual for what I mentioned in my post from a few minutes ago.   The northern extent / cutoff (circled in green) keeps moving south while at the same time the area encircled in red keeps increasing its amounts little by little.

 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

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Oh wow NAM brings 2-4" for me get outta here. I guess with the fluff factor maybe 15:1 havent had much of a chance to check aloft temps yet.

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11 minutes ago, risingriver said:

Now that is a trend you might safely hang your hat on.

 

I tend not to trust overrunning situations. Never get good results with that set up it seems, except for the PDII Blizzard, which was 3 days of epic snow fun thanks to a stalled front and overrrunning. If this setup was in a slower jetstream it could be special.

But I'll be happy with anything in the 3-7 range this time, I just think it's closer to 3-4" than 6-7" IMBY. Someone will probably see 6-8" in Virginia though.

Plumes for ROA up again. Mean is now 7. But there are 3 distinct camps. Clusters from 1-3, 5-7, and 11-14. Not sure what to make of that. It's a lot clearer when you have one group plus outliers. 

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17 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Hmmmm kinda looking more like the CMC has looked for days :352nmsp:

He said yesterday not to look at it. Period. Even with a welding helmet on. 

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Wow, that new NAM has a decent to pretty nice bump in accumulations for Pittsburgh, Morgantown, DC, and Baltimore. Philly has about the same amount but that northern extent of the snow is closer to then. Dividing line in PA is looking like I-80 in the West and the PA Turnpike once you get into SEPA.

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That newest run of the NAM and 12Z Euro is giving me hope that the low to the west won't weaken as much as it heads east. Don't let me down lol.

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1 minute ago, bradjl2009 said:

Wow, that new NAM has a decent to pretty nice bump in accumulations for Pittsburgh, Morgantown, DC, and Baltimore. Philly has about the same amount but that northern extent of the snow is closer to then. Dividing line in PA is looking like I-80 in the West and the PA Turnpike once you get into SEPA.

Enjoying the bumps in recent runs here in the Delmarva. Like to see that trend continue north.  Plenty of room for me to stay out of the rain :classic_sleep:

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Wow!  That NAM!  Why is it suddenly showing more snow for central NC?  What changed?

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1 minute ago, Mulaman984 said:

Slightly OT: can anyone recommend a good radar app for my phone to track this storm. Not looking for anything showe fancy, but don’t mind paying a little 

radar scope is awesome! paid tho

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8 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

A visual for what I mentioned in my post from a few minutes ago.   The northern extent / cutoff (circled in green) keeps moving south while at the same time the area encircled in red keeps increasing its amounts little by little.

 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

I feel like this is a common occurrence in these situations with the models doing this when a cutoff ends up being sharp. It just can't hone in exactly where it will occur until we get closer.

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9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Oh wow NAM brings 2-4" for me get outta here. I guess with the fluff factor maybe 15:1 havent had much of a chance to check aloft temps yet.

I think the upward bump for our area has to do with what happens between H39 and H45.  During that time the secondary gets going on the NC coast and enhances the QPF to the north.

Edited by paletitsnow63

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3 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Enjoying the bumps in recent runs here in the Delmarva. Like to see that trend continue north.  Plenty of room for me to stay out of the rain :classic_sleep:

This is a pretty cool event overall IMO bringing a decent snow to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio valley that don't get them as much as they're neighbors to the north. Looks like I have a good bit of room for this to keep squeezing as the northern extent of the 3 inch Kuchera ratio  line on the newest NAM is 40 miles maybe to my north. Can't believe St. Louis though, this is like their third big snowfall of the station I think.

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4 minutes ago, Kohler7 said:

Wow!  That NAM!  Why is it suddenly showing more snow for central NC?  What changed?

Pretty sure that's ice. But everything is trending wetter, figures as it's a theme this year. 

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14 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

A visual for what I mentioned in my post from a few minutes ago.   The northern extent / cutoff (circled in green) keeps moving south while at the same time the area encircled in red keeps increasing its amounts little by little.

 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

Works for me. 

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5 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Slightly OT: can anyone recommend a good user friendly radar app for my phone to track this storm (that won’t cause everything else to slow down when running). Not looking for anything super fancy, but don’t mind paying a little 

its not an app but still a really decent radar site weather.cod.edu/satrad shows nice detail. Me personally I am not a fan of the weather apps but hey happy tracking and enjoy your snows. 

2 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

I think the upward bump for our area has to do with what happens between H39 and H45.  During that time the secondary gets going on the NC coast and enhances the QPF to the north.

Ill have to take a look at what may be causing the bump up. Really messes me up I can check skew t's hourly with this shutdown... 

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