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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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The Susquehanna River is mighty - but the CTP advisory map makes it seem even more so.:classic_laugh:

suskie.PNG.3fa84ebc1453ba83472b1300d4f43715.PNG

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9 minutes ago, Kohler7 said:

Wow!  That NAM!  Why is it suddenly showing more snow for central NC?  What changed?

Gotta watch those dews with a weaker overall storm there is not as much of a warm push aloft to cause that transition I would still worry about ice situation with temps that could be upper 20's with rain never good.

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2 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

The Susquehanna River is mighty - but the CTP advisory map makes it seem even more so.:classic_laugh:

suskie.PNG.3fa84ebc1453ba83472b1300d4f43715.PNG

Its a shame cause I feel they always downplay lanc area we are that in between county that gets shunted off till things actually start happening then they are like oh yea we do have that county lol

 

I will say though it is impressive to see the changes sometimes from lanc to york pretty stark sometimes.

Edited by so_whats_happening
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Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Its a shame cause I feel they always downplay lanc area we are that in between county that gets shunted off till things actually start happening then they are like oh yea we do have that county lol

I always thought that Lancaster should be added to Mt. Holly/Philadelphia. It is closer to there than State College for sure and the weather there is more like that of Philly than of State College. But I digress. 

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4 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

The Susquehanna River is mighty - but the CTP advisory map makes it seem even more so.:classic_laugh:

suskie.PNG.3fa84ebc1453ba83472b1300d4f43715.PNG

Wow no love on that map...😀

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, TheWiledCard said:

I always thought that Lancaster should be added to Mt. Holly/Philadelphia. It is closer to there than State College for sure and the weather there is more like that of Philly than of State College. But I digress. 

yea I feel you on that one we are like right on the edge of that weird micro climate area of the susquehanna valley. there are sometimes we stay all snow and others times we flip like the philly metro area.

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Oh I agree.  I can definitely see how this would be and has been projected to be a pretty bad ice storm for us.  I guess we'll see how it turns out.

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Will say that will be one tight gradient in SE PA. Im going up to allentown tomorrow and feel they may not even see a flake but when i go home that should be a fun commute.

What probably gives a boost up this way is the 700mb fronto forcing comes into Southern PA which will help enhance and yea 15:1 seems to be a good call on the northern side maybe down to 12:1 in bmore and DC areas. By far the heaviest QPF/ snow area should be between richmond and DC some strong 850 fronto forcing there.

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6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

yea I feel you on that one we are like right on the edge of that weird micro climate area of the susquehanna valley. there are sometimes we stay all snow and others times we flip like the philly metro area.

What is even kind of weirder is that their disco mention potential for up to 4" on the ridge tops

Quote

It looks unlikely that any measurable snow will make it into the nrn mtns. The edge of the snow will likely get to around I-80 (maybe even a little farther south) and bounce back to the south. SLRs will run about 15:1 south and 18:1 near UNV as the air will be rather dry and what omega/up motion there is will be in or just above the preferred DGZ. QPF is between 0.15 and 0.2 along the Turnpike and south, tapering off to nil by I-80 or just barely to the north. This yields total snow accums by sunrise Sunday in the 2-3 inch range near and to the south of Route 22 south. Slightly heavier amounts around 4 inches are possible on the ridges. Confidence is moderate to high for amounts to fall in the Advisory range, therefore we hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory acrs our Southern Tier Counties from 20Z Sat to 12Z Sunday in collaboration with adjacent WFOs.

The ridge and valley region runs SW-NE from roughly Chambersburg up into Schuylkill Co. - yet half of that area has no advisory. 

Honestly though - those maps are just a good "guide" - not really meant to show that Dauphin/Lanc/Leb get "nothing". And they do mention the 22 corridor which parallels 76 but for only the eastern half of the state. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kohler7 said:

Oh I agree.  I can definitely see how this would be and has been projected to be a pretty bad ice storm for us.  I guess we'll see how it turns out.

Yea your best bet would be the cold air holds on and makes it more of a sleet situation but yea there probably is enough warm air intrusion to cause it to go to FZR. stay safe.

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1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea your best bet would be the cold air holds on and makes it more of a sleet situation but yea there probably is enough warm air intrusion to cause it to go to FZR. stay safe.

Will do, thanks.  I'm not even disappointed by it being a freezing rain storm if the train of storms that are supposed to come after it come to fruition.

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Renken's getting it but good right now, in COMO. Maybe he can give us an upstream report? 

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Mid west going to have a nice storm on their hands. 

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7 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Renken's getting it but good right now, in COMO. Maybe he can give us an upstream report? 

Found this tweet from some guy with a KOPN handle

image.png.a12066fd60f083ea8946911521181c28.png

No, I'm not the one who liked it.  

  • Haha 2

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15 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

What is even kind of weirder is that their disco mention potential for up to 4" on the ridge tops

The ridge and valley region runs SW-NE from roughly Chambersburg up into Schuylkill Co. - yet half of that area has no advisory. 

Honestly though - those maps are just a good "guide" - not really meant to show that Dauphin/Lanc/Leb get "nothing". And they do mention the 22 corridor which parallels 76 but for only the eastern half of the state. 

 

yea they dont really do to well i feel outside of state college area, namely SE of that area but hey its all good thats why a lot of folks in the lower susquehanna valley area listen to eric horst he is pretty good at understanding the micro climates in the area.

850mb fronto just north of the blob going to get raged on.namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_38.thumb.png.a334a5fda83045873f38c81c006a06f1.png

 

700mb fronto

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_38.thumb.png.985b727da943724019fb0184d5bc1589.png

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Snow map from NBC4 in DC

 

 

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2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

yea they dont really do to well i feel outside of state college area, namely SE of that area but hey its all good thats why a lot of folks in the lower susquehanna valley area listen to eric horst he is pretty good at understanding the micro climates in the area.

850mb fronto just north of the blob going to get raged on.namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_38.thumb.png.a334a5fda83045873f38c81c006a06f1.png

 

700mb fronto

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_38.thumb.png.985b727da943724019fb0184d5bc1589.png

H7 thumpage is always cool - and usually overperforms. :) 

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32 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

yea I feel you on that one we are like right on the edge of that weird micro climate area of the susquehanna valley. there are sometimes we stay all snow and others times we flip like the philly metro area.

I lived in NE Lanco my whole life and State College is always a day late with their warnings for the county. Especially where I used to live, right outside of Terre Hill, we would always get smacked and State College is no where to be seen. Oh well, I guess.

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Just now, TheWiledCard said:

I lived in NE Lanco my whole life and State College is always a day late with their warnings for the county. Especially where I used to live, right outside of Terre Hill, we would always get smacked and State College is no where to be seen. Oh well, I guess.

Yea exactly and they should know by now the morgantown area is always a bad area when storms go through there but I digress lol.

Oh I think this might be DCs biggest snowfall in a couple years cheers to you folks down there. Also the midwest is seeing some love im sure many out there have been snow starved for years.

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5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

yea they dont really do to well i feel outside of state college area, namely SE of that area but hey its all good thats why a lot of folks in the lower susquehanna valley area listen to eric horst he is pretty good at understanding the micro climates in the area.

850mb fronto just north of the blob going to get raged on.namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_38.thumb.png.a334a5fda83045873f38c81c006a06f1.png

 

 

 

That zero line isn't the same thing as the 540 line is it? If so, that's as far north as I have seen it on any model, but I am thinking it is some other weather geek thing I am not enough of a nerd yet to know about. Enlighten me please?

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2 hours ago, Miller A said:

You see above this post, clindner00,  THAT is how you take a nature pic.   LOLOLOLOL just kiddding with ya

This good enough?  😂

413DB738-5AB5-4564-B9D9-4835F642E4C2.jpeg

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1 hour ago, 1816 said:

Plumes for ROA up again. Mean is now 7. But there are 3 distinct camps. Clusters from 1-3, 5-7, and 11-14. Not sure what to make of that. It's a lot clearer when you have one group plus outliers. 

I only use plumes on SREF, thanks to advice from JD and UTS, to look for trends. Completely ignore amounts, but check them to see if the numbers are trending up or down from run to run. The trend is your friend. I will sometimes play with the alphabet soup and try to remove the high outlier cluster from the graphic, but identifying all those shades of colors is tough on the old person eyes I have aged into using.

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Metwatching the 700mb levels

700mb_sf.thumb.gif.65663b3edf045b1ccc4f0c24caf9a201.gif

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1 minute ago, risingriver said:

 

That zero line isn't the same thing as the 540 line is it? If so, that's as far north as I have seen it on any model, but I am thinking it is some other weather geek thing I am not enough of a nerd yet to know about. Enlighten me please?

the 540 line represents the thickness of the atmosphere above a given location. It is the height at which the 500mb level exists (5400m above the surface) as a 546 line would represent the height is now up to 5460m above the surface. They tend to use the 540 line a rudimentary rain/snow line not always the case changes from time to time and season to season. That 0 line is the true representation though of the freezing line at that given height so at 850mb (~5,000ft AGL) the freezing line cuts into southern VA hence the issue of FZR and sleet down that way. Hope that helps. And finally they fixed the comp at work so I should be able to post those sections next week when im back in.

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