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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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5 minutes ago, RTC2 said:

Yes it is, and sad ending . Imagine if it would just head east, not southeast, and not smack that high. It would be a perfect bowling ball type system. I luv those. Much less drama.

Must say if you get a chance scroll through the MW thread. Storm blowing up faster than a tick on a vampire. Really think for our southern friends, think this is great sign for higher accumulations. Farther away from the cold hammer of death, that can only be good.

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3 hours ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Good luck down there Keith! I said yesterday, always a battle for the delmarva. Hope you cash in! 

Thanks man, yea 75 percent of the time if we get snow we battle sleet. Earlier this year we got about 1/2” then it all changed to sleet. This storm looks interesting and I could see some boom/bust for my area. I fly back from Charleston tomm just in time, so we shall see

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1 hour ago, RTC2 said:

I'm still trying to dissect St. Louie post on LR about storms travel south of existing snow pack. Never knew that,, and not sure I buy it at all.

Why is that?

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13 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Why is that?

Why would the existing snow pack determine the path? Aid in the temps yea, but path? So in normal winters, as the snow pack builds to the north, the storm track switches south??

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Not too shocked TBH

sref.thumb.PNG.3ed0f33dd8971c7233cb8a6589d8c7df.PNG

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APG, NE of Balt (Harford Co) 

355009997_ScreenShot2019-01-12at3_30_25AM.png.3ec3e31dd013bf9cc464e5a40d919fa6.png

 

giphy.gif

 

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From Sterling.... good write-up but getting outdated. 8:42pm last night and they're referencing 18z as latest guideance. Nevertheless, lots of good tidbits in there. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
842 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into New England through tonight, as low
pressure forms over Texas and moves into the Southeast through
Saturday morning. Low pressure passes by to our south late on
Saturday before transferring its energy off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast Sunday. High pressure returns for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure resides across the Mid Atlantic...extending north
into Ontario. Dry air has been draining south, with dewpoints
dropping into the lower-mid teens. Already have some upper level
clouds overspreading Virginia...blow-off from the storm system
over the south-central United States.

Aside from the perhaps the clouds, much of this will have little
impact to the forecast locally tonight. Although guidance has
been running a little moister than obs, its also running a
little too cool. Since clouds will be thickening tonight, do
prefer the slightly warmer solution. Therefore, will be making
very few adjustments to the forecast tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, high pressure remains anchored over New England,
with ridging extending down along the Appalachians through the
Mid-Atlantic states, resulting in cold air being funneled into
the region. However, relatively warmer and more moist
southwesterly flow at the low to mid levels will overrun this
wedge of colder air. Meanwhile, an upper-level shortwave ahead
of the main system will provide a source of lift across the
region, resulting in a period of snow well out ahead of the
approaching surface low. Snow will start in western portions of
the CWA Saturday morning, and migrate east through the
afternoon. Most of this snow will be fairly light in nature, but
will last for much of the day, so do expect minor accumulations.

Saturday night, the region will be in a very favorable upper-
level jet position, being centered under the right entrance
region of a northern jet streak and also under the left exit
region of a southern jet streak. There will be a lot of lift
during this period, and plenty of moisture, so this will be the
best period for the area to see accumulating snow.

Meanwhile, the surface low pressure will be drifting east
across the southern US late Saturday night before transferring
its energy off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday. While some
uncertainty still remains in regards to the exact track of this
surface low, recent guidance continues to suggest a track
farther to the north, which would give the region another good
shot at some accumulating snow as we head into early Sunday as
well, especially south of Interstate 66 and US 50. The latest
guidance (from the 18Z cycle) has generally been supporting this
slightly snowier solution. If the next guidance cycle continues
to support it, the current snow accumulation forecast may be a
touch on the low side. Since there is plenty of time to fine-
tune this forecast, will let guidance (hopefully) settle in on a
solution.

Snow will gradually come to an end from north to south
throughout the day on Sunday. On Sunday night, expect northern
and central portions of the CWA to turn dry as high pressure
continues to build into the region. However, could see some
lingering snow showers or flurries in central Virginia and
southern Maryland as the system departs and some moisture
remains over those areas.

As far as accumulations go, winter storm warnings have been
issued for Central VA, eastern WV and southern MD, with 3 to 8
inches of snow expected in those regions through Sunday. As for
northern VA, northern/central MD and the WV panhandle,
including the D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas, Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for 2 to 5 inches of snow.
Overall, models have trended up in terms of totals today, as
reflected expected snow totals. Again, much of the accumulating
snow looks to fall late afternoon Saturday through early
Sunday, with lighter amounts expected earlier in the day on
Saturday and later in the day on Sunday. An attempt was made to
focus the advisories and warnings on the times when significant
accumulations were expected, versus exactly when snow would
begin or end. This may require further refinement.

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10 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

From Sterling.... good write-up but getting outdated. 8:42pm last night and they're referencing 18z as latest guideance. Nevertheless, lots of good tidbits in there. 


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
842 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into New England through tonight, as lowSPC Meso Disco
pressure forms over Texas and moves into the Southeast through
Saturday morning. Low pressure passes by to our south late on
Saturday before transferring its energy off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast Sunday. High pressure returns for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure resides across the Mid Atlantic...extending north
into Ontario. Dry air has been draining south, with dewpoints
dropping into the lower-mid teens. Already have some upper level
clouds overspreading Virginia...blow-off from the storm system
over the south-central United States.

Aside from the perhaps the clouds, much of this will have little
impact to the forecast locally tonight. Although guidance has
been running a little moister than obs, its also running a
little too cool. Since clouds will be thickening tonight, do
prefer the slightly warmer solution. Therefore, will be making
very few adjustments to the forecast tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, high pressure remains anchored over New England,
with ridging extending down along the Appalachians through the
Mid-Atlantic states, resulting in cold air being funneled into
the region. However, relatively warmer and more moist
southwesterly flow at the low to mid levels will overrun this
wedge of colder air. Meanwhile, an upper-level shortwave ahead
of the main system will provide a source of lift across the
region, resulting in a period of snow well out ahead of the
approaching surface low. Snow will start in western portions of
the CWA Saturday morning, and migrate east through the
afternoon. Most of this snow will be fairly light in nature, but
will last for much of the day, so do expect minor accumulations.

Saturday night, the region will be in a very favorable upper-
level jet position, being centered under the right entrance
region of a northern jet streak and also under the left exit
region of a southern jet streak. There will be a lot of lift
during this period, and plenty of moisture, so this will be the
best period for the area to see accumulating snow.

Meanwhile, the surface low pressure will be drifting east
across the southern US late Saturday night before transferring
its energy off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday. While some
uncertainty still remains in regards to the exact track of this
surface low, recent guidance continues to suggest a track
farther to the north, which would give the region another good
shot at some accumulating snow as we head into early Sunday as
well, especially south of Interstate 66 and US 50. The latest
guidance (from the 18Z cycle) has generally been supporting this
slightly snowier solution. If the next guidance cycle continues
to support it, the current snow accumulation forecast may be a
touch on the low side. Since there is plenty of time to fine-
tune this forecast, will let guidance (hopefully) settle in on a
solution.

Snow will gradually come to an end from north to south
throughout the day on Sunday. On Sunday night, expect northern
and central portions of the CWA to turn dry as high pressure
continues to build into the region. However, could see some
lingering snow showers or flurries in central Virginia and
southern Maryland as the system departs and some moisture
remains over those areas.

As far as accumulations go, winter storm warnings have been
issued for Central VA, eastern WV and southern MD, with 3 to 8
inches of snow expected in those regions through Sunday. As for
northern VA, northern/central MD and the WV panhandle,
including the D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas, Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for 2 to 5 inches of snow.
Overall, models have trended up in terms of totals today, as
reflected expected snow totals. Again, much of the accumulating
snow looks to fall late afternoon Saturday through early
Sunday, with lighter amounts expected earlier in the day on
Saturday and later in the day on Sunday. An attempt was made to
focus the advisories and warnings on the times when significant
accumulations were expected, versus exactly when snow would
begin or end. This may require further refinement.

12K NAM goes bonkers for the S. DC region - 19"??

namconus_asnow_neus_18.thumb.png.9bbb4d486c7b576e6761143f2217138d.png

Renken et al, getting crushed out there. Def. overperformer - no real reason for it to not translate East. 

SPC

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3 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

12K NAM goes bonkers for the S. DC region - 19"??

namconus_asnow_neus_18.thumb.png.9bbb4d486c7b576e6761143f2217138d.png

2 words--

Wheel. House. 

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5 hours ago, RTC2 said:

Must say if you get a chance scroll through the MW thread. Storm blowing up faster than a tick on a vampire. Really think for our southern friends, think this is great sign for higher accumulations. Farther away from the cold hammer of death, that can only be good.

Wise words from our friend here. Just try not to spit take all over your computer when you read it. Very close to cereal and milk all over my keyboard. 

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Quote

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... The first wave of WAA precip/snow continues to push into the area from the SW this aftn, but it has a tough time overcoming the dry air, and could take quite a while to make much of an accumulation at all before nearly sunset. A band of prcip will likely follow the first volley and enhance precip over the SWrn third of the area. Best UVVEL is inside or just above the DGZ as this band moves in. The DGZ is well aloft, about 15kft up. So, despite a good set up for dendrites to grow nicely, they may rime/accrete as they fall through the lower clouds and keep the SLRs in check. SLRs look exactly the same as last few runs, about 13:1 in Somerset with a slight gradient up to 15:1 at UNV and MDT. Overall, there is only a 4-6hr window where we get any decent accums, and HREF probabilities do not support 1"+/hr rates. Still, the liquid and SLRs play out a solid advy snow of 2-4 inches along and south of Route 22. The dry air to the NW and orientation of the banded precip seems like it will only push the accumulating snow to a line pretty much right along I-80. Places 10-20 miles N of I-80 may get a dusting, but any farther north, and no snow will accumulate. Have added another tier of counties onto the advy by adding just a half of an inch onto going totals. HREF/HIRES model data supports higher numbers on the ridges, but may be overdoing the orographic enhancement slightly. Tough call on whether or not to add counties east of the river into the advy. But, the totals in Harrisburg and the western half of Lancaster Co should make it up to advy criteria of 2". Places east of Lebanon and Lancaster could get just a dusting. The snow tapers off to something just heavier than flurries in the middle of the night. Most of it will be on the ground by 4-5AM. Expect little wind with this snow and air temps in the 20s while it is falling. The temps may start near freezing in SEG/MDT/LNS.

AFDCTP

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Just look at that moisture transport from the GOM 

(on a related note - look at R of screen shot. Intel going to Wunder? Guess I'll have to find a new radar site - boooooooo)

radar222.thumb.PNG.d63a92b3fd1d35184c602d58070e135b.PNG

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26 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

 

AFDCTP

Welcome to the party.

 

The latest thinking from Sterling.

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure over New England will continue to extend south
into the Mid-Atlantic today while low pressure tracks through
the Plains and into the Gulf Coast States. Closed off upper-
level low pressure will track into the Midwest today, but it
will begin to shear apart as it runs into a confluence zone
upstream.

Shortwave energy and a jetmax well ahead of the upper-level low
will move into our area late this morning into this afternoon.
Also, the low and mid-level flow is expected to back to the
southwest in response to the surface low and upper-level low
tracking closer to our area. Warm and moist air will overrun
colder air near the surface, and lift from the shortwave energy
and jetmax should be enough for cause precipitation to break out
late this morning in the Potomac Highlands and then this
afternoon across most other locations. The high to the north
will supply plenty of cold air, so the p-type will be snow.
Start time will be a little tricky, because the band of snow
will be driven primarily through mid-level forcing late this
morning and early afternoon and most likely located over
northern Virginia into the Potomac Highlands. However, snow will
fill in across the rest of the area as overrunning increases as
well, most likely mid to late afternoon into the early evening
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave energy and overrunning will continue tonight as the
upper-level low continues to shear apart and track east. The
surface low will track through the Gulf Coast States before
transferring its energy to a coastal low off the North and South
Carolina Coast by morning. The mid-level forcing will be
stronger, which is evident in most guidance, so a steadier snow
is expected across the entire area. There may be just enough
warm air to mix in aloft for snow to mix with sleet and freezing
rain overnight across portions of central Virginia. Also,
rain/sleet may also mix in across extreme southern Maryland
(southern St Marys County). Otherwise, snow is expected across
other locations.

Coastal low pressure will move offshore Sunday, but the sheared
upper-level system will pass through our area late Sunday into
Sunday night. A steady snow associated with the coastal low will
continue into Sunday morning before gradually tapering off to
light snow and flurries during the afternoon. However, another
period of steadier snow is possible late Sunday into Sunday
night as the upper-level low passes through the area. The best
chance for snow appears to be near and to the south/west of the
Potomac River. Additional accumulations should be light, but it
may be enough to cause additional problems on untreated
surfaces.

As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the
northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area.
Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally
higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing
increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into
Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice
the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height
for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV
and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI
banding is possible. Elsewhere, left the headlines from the
previous forecast. Still looking at a most likely of 2-5 inches
across northern Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
and the Baltimore Metropolitan areas, with 4-7 inches
elsewhere. Do want to point out that there is still uncertainty
regarding the placement and location of any banding
precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight
change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall
totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow
across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday.

High pressure will return later Sunday night through Monday,
bringing dry and seasonably chilly conditions.

 

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2 minutes ago, risingriver said:

Welcome to the party.

 

The latest thinking from Sterling.

 

I shall enjoy my "participation trophy" snow. It is January after all, and I can't remain snow free the entire winter (he said with some regret)

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53 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

12K NAM goes bonkers for the S. DC region - 19"??

namconus_asnow_neus_18.thumb.png.9bbb4d486c7b576e6761143f2217138d.png

Renken et al, getting crushed out there. Def. overperformer - no real reason for it to not translate East. 

SPC

The NAM just made this a major snowstorm for the DC metro:classic_blink:

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Tale of the tape, as it were, as to why some regions get shut out this time. 

unisys.thumb.PNG.016d134ea581b184bec700e92b8cf532.PNG

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Frederick MD reporting -SN? METAR says so - but radar suggests no

METAR.thumb.PNG.0d46b32a634dc8a8cb213c582ff4a94f.PNG

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50 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Frederick MD reporting -SN? METAR says so - but radar suggests no

METAR.thumb.PNG.0d46b32a634dc8a8cb213c582ff4a94f.PNG

Checking in from new market (frederick county), the radar is telling the truth. Nothing falling

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Upstream tidbit - from JDRenken's  backyard (edit - I do believe his region is approaching 12'+ at this point)

Quote

000 FXUS63 KLSX 121105 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 505 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019 Major winter storm ongoing across the entire forecast area. Main adjustments/highlights to the forecast were as follows: (1) Storm expected to last a bit longer. Models continue to trend slower with the eastward progression of the system, particularly with focus on the H850 low, which is not expected to track south of our region until late this afternoon or this evening. Until then, it will maintain the primary source of lift from this system which has been a deep persistent WAA and strong broadscale lift in a moist environment. After this evening, focus becomes more around an attempt to switch to a deformation zone and which model you prefer. Have been leaning towards the 00z NAM depiction which maintains likely probabilities for light precipitation through late tonight and, in some areas, Sunday morning. STL Metro and areas around the I-70 corridor continue to look to be in the "sweet spot" where precipitation will linger the longest. Have extended headlines for all areas through the rest of tonight, 12z/Sun.

 

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Sref mean for BWI qpf .78, snow 7.45”, DCA qpf .93, snow 8.51”, DOV qpf .88, snow 6.77”, GED (S.DEL) woof 1.17 mix rain/snow, snow 6.39”, Quite a bump up and will be interesting to see how this storm evolves as it gets closer. UTS thanks for the radar photo showing the gulf is open for business.

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Oh man. Plumers really bouncing. Look out DC! 

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14 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Upstream tidbit - from JDRenken's  backyard (edit - I do believe his region is approaching 12'+ at this point)

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.98cb37f7ea86966bab7c540571a50384.PNG

 

Yeah - I'm bumpin my own post from previous page burial status. Watchagonnadoboutit, sick the Bouncer on me? 

:classic_happy:

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3 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Yeah - I'm bumpin my own post from previous page burial status. Watchagonnadoboutit, sick the Bouncer on me? 

:classic_happy:

I would kick you out, but this little bugger just got exciting! 

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29 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Upstream tidbit - from JDRenken's  backyard (edit - I do believe his region is approaching 12'+ at this point)

 

12 feet plus?  😂😂😂.  Holy crap!

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