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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Oh NAM why are you doing this?  How awesome would it be....

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2 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Hmm that says 15th to 17th so is that not for this storm?

 

05q6faS.png

 

Direct link isn't working.

Edited by konka
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I think this will be getting upgraded...

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 AM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-122200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.190113T0000Z-190114T0000Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach,
Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, and Denton
320 AM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches expected with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern Maryland and central and southern
  Delaware.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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6 minutes ago, RTC2 said:

I have grown to luv the NAMbino. Wish it went out further and was more accurate in the longer range it does go out sometimes, but IMHO it picks up things, trends, that other models such as the Euro misses. All models have their biases, their faults, do better or worse with certain type of storms, but if NAMbino is consistently showing a solution (especially closer to the event that differs from the others), many times has proven to be correct. Again, IMHO.

This goes to my old saw of discounting the global models when we get "in tight" - they just lack the meso resolution to pick up on last minute stuff. That's exactly why the NAM and other meso models exist.

1 minute ago, konka said:

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

This happened before - not sure if it's a caching issue - but I do remember them showing a November map, in December. 

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Just now, UTSwiinii said:

This goes to my old saw of discounting the global models when we get "in tight" - they just lack the meso resolution to pick up on last minute stuff. That's exactly why the NAM and other meso models exist.

This happened before - not sure if it's a caching issue - but I do remember them showing a November map, in December. 

 

Yeah. Fixed with a rehost. In the past 4 hours we've gone from a WWA to WSW and 3-6 to 6-8. Dare I say that 6-12 is creeping closer to DC proper.

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1 minute ago, konka said:

 

Yeah. Fixed with a rehost. In the past 4 hours we've gone from a WWA to WSW and 3-6 to 6-8. Dare I say that 6-12 is creeping closer to DC proper.

I didn't mean it was you, but if so then thanks for clarifying. 

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1 minute ago, phillyPete said:

I think this is what you were looking for :classic_wink:
Dwucg1sWkAIwpnT.jpg:large

Yes - the poster edited to the correct map already. But thanks

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It’s torturous watching the radar slowly fill in west and south of the area.  Come on!!!

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as far north as 119.4 on I 81. Probably further north 

Screen Shot 2019-01-12 at 12.15.25 PM.png

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Snowboard is ready, NAM me.  It just started snizzling.

 

snowboard.JPG

Edited by JonSnow
Update picture
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36 minutes ago, RTC2 said:

I have grown to luv the NAMbino. Wish it went out further and was more accurate in the longer range it does go out sometimes, but IMHO it picks up things, trends, that other models such as the Euro misses. All models have their biases, their faults, do better or worse with certain type of storms, but if NAMbino is consistently showing a solution (especially closer to the event that differs from the others), many times has proven to be correct. Again, IMHO.

I’ll keep beating the “NAM is in its wheel house” drum. Don’t mind me. 

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That 13F dew is gonna take a bit to overcome. From the marina PWS down the street.

1175641444_ScreenShot2019-01-12at12_37_01PM.png.6fc1fa5b8cac7bf6019ff6e4d21d87ac.png

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Quickly went from snizzle to moderate snow, already turning the ground white.   If y'all could keep that mixed precip south of us it would be greatly appreciated.

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3 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

I’ll keep beating the “NAM is in its wheel house” drum. Don’t mind me. 

I have been a namo cheerleader for years. Has it made me look stupid sometimes? Yes. But I also make myself look stupid. So theres that.

I'll see myself out. 

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700mb_sf.thumb.gif.aeaed72d579db4cfc07b8865bd466255.gif

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18 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

I’ll keep beating the “NAM is in its wheel house” drum. Don’t mind me. 

Last few winters I will take that model in its wheel house anytime. If it sniffs something and locks in , foolish to dismiss it. I know I did a few times and got burned.

Edited by RTC2
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2 minutes ago, RTC2 said:

Last few winters I will take that model in its wheel house anytime. If it sniffs something and locks in , foolish to dismiss it. I know I did a few times and got burned.

No kidding. At this timeframe, using a global is like trying to steer the titanic away from an iceberg "dead ahead" at the last second. 

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6 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

700mb_sf.thumb.gif.aeaed72d579db4cfc07b8865bd466255.gif

Too me, the slowness appears to be allowing our confluence to ease a bit, again which might signal and coincide with the better trends on the shorter range models today. I may be wrong.

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Redneck snow stick .   Only missing duct tape. Had to use electrical tape. Not bad for 10 minutes works.  Now i have probably jinxed our snowfall now.  

8D6C5C5E-0311-4486-9587-B639FAB3EC62.jpeg

C2CE3693-94F5-469A-86BC-D4231CDF0391.jpeg

Edited by wtkidz
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19 minutes ago, JonSnow said:

Quickly went from snizzle to moderate snow, already turning the ground white.   If y'all could keep that mixed precip south of us it would be greatly appreciated.

Moderate snow here outside Roanoke now. Cold temps the last few days having an impact. Every flake is sticking. Went from nothing to a fair dusting in about 10 minutes. If the warm air aloft stays away with the second wave tonight, I smell another overperformer. 

Shenandoah valley and north probably stay cold enough and will bust high on forecasts I believe. 

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Looks like snow in Petersburg Wst VA       ATTM

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Sunny and cold that’s it 

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The radar snow in PA is virga - DPs are in the blue on the Unisys maps, the radar snow in WVA/VA is actual snow - DP's in the greenish blue. Says it all. 

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CTP update

 

Quote

SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure near Tulsa OK late this morning will slide to the east northeast and into TN Valley before jumping to the North Carolina coast late tonight and Sunday. The storm track could edge a little further north later Sunday into Sunday night posing a threat for heavier snow across the southeast part of PA.

Quote

Forecast snow amounts look in pretty good shape across much of the region, but could a tad high near and to the north of the I-80 corridor.

 

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So someone pointed out that the dew points are pretty cold for my area (NC triad).  Would someone explain the significance to me?  Sorry if it's an obvious answer.

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