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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Phased Vort

January 12-14, 2019 | Winter Storm

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12 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

WPC starting to shift their outlook (looks a bit more UK-ish?)

9mhwbg_conus.gif.a3dcbcffdd3601fb0d197ec66dfdc5ac.gif

And Day 7 up by Nova Scotia

9nhwbg_conus.gif.3880f0ba04ff7fcd812205aed0534074.gif

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6 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

Bold...

 

I agree with them. But those type of posts are what create pie in the face moments. 

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I killed a mosquito Saturday.  Saw people wearing shorts to do their shopping.

Gonna be ten degrees above average tomorrow, and for three or four days next week, if the forecasts are believable.  

I can take freezing precip.  I can take warm and not-raining (I won't say "dry").  As long as we don't get more 40-something days with torrential rain, I'm OK.

As I've said before, for whatever reason the seasons have been shifting these past years.  To all intents and purposes, Autumn didn't really begin until November.  That would make this the last month of autumn, if we apply the same slide. 

Let's see what February and March look like.  I'm guessing they will be winter.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

I agree with them. But those type of posts are what create pie in the face moments. 

I agree with them as well.   I’m Glad someone in the professional world of weather at least has the balls to pick a side on what they think is right or wrong. 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I agree with them as well.   I’m Glad someone in the professional world of weather at least has the balls to pick a side on what they think is right or wrong. 

hard to argue with that Pardo. 

I could see a GFS FV3 type scenario with this one. HP squishes it to the south. 

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12z gfs ens

1471926573_1-712zgfsens.thumb.gif.e4b21070bf87eb346f96204a6b07d8e1.gif

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8 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

I agree with them. But those type of posts are what create pie in the face moments. 

Yep I remember  a couple years ago the nws in boston hyped a big blizzard  and they barely got 6 inches lol so I like our chances lol 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

12z gfs ens

1471926573_1-712zgfsens.thumb.gif.e4b21070bf87eb346f96204a6b07d8e1.gif

what could possibly go wrong? :cloud-01:

gif doesnt fit. but I like it. 

Edited by MDBlueRidge

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

12z gfs ens

1471926573_1-712zgfsens.thumb.gif.e4b21070bf87eb346f96204a6b07d8e1.gif

Hmm doesn't look too bad for me in central MD for 5 to 6 days out

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10 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

I agree with them. But those type of posts are what create pie in the face moments. 

There's a reason most offices keep it vague until it becomes almost a no brainer. 

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1 minute ago, MDBlueRidge said:

what could possibly go wrong? :cloud-01:

gif doesnt fit. but I like it. 

Lmaoo that's a big understatement 😉

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

gem_asnow_neus_13.png

 

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

Subtract the top image from the bottom

Nice to see the gem  on board

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1 hour ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Theres a guy in NE PA who will bring the steaks

Ill bring the beer lol

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7 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

hard to argue with that Pardo. 

I could see a GFS FV3 type scenario with this one. HP squishes it to the south. 

Yea I was thinking the same thing.   I Can’t really see this hugging or riding up the coast due to position of the northern trough.  Time will tell though 

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Just now, Winter_warlock said:

Ill bring the beer lol

Lol let’s pump the brakes.   I think we’re all jumping the gun a little bit, I don’t think the gfs is done moving around just yet.....unfortunately 

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Just now, MDBlueRidge said:

what could possibly go wrong? :cloud-01:

I was in DC...now I'm outside Pittsburgh. Below is the perfect representation. 

:28_2_8v:

This is the best I've felt about a good storm since the one that went through NC/VA over a month ago which is a good thing I guess. As you mention, probably south but worth monitoring the players. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Lol let’s pump the brakes.   I think we’re all jumping the gun a little bit, I don’t think the gfs is done moving around just yet.....unfortunately 

I agree bro but I'm still bringing beer  either way lol

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Hmmm.... compared to yesterday, the slp is further north, there's more of a trough digging behind it, there's more of a ridge in front of it.  

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.gif.593b31e5a41966d0eb778f336fad6e1a.gif

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Hmmm.... compared to yesterday, the slp is further north, there's more of a trough digging behind it, there's more of a ridge in front of it.  

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.gif.593b31e5a41966d0eb778f336fad6e1a.gif

Yep looks maybe 100 miles or so north.  More ridge g in front could mean a turn north up the coast instead of OTS

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Hmmm.... compared to yesterday, the slp is further north, there's more of a trough digging behind it, there's more of a ridge in front of it.  

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.gif.593b31e5a41966d0eb778f336fad6e1a.gif

seriously a thread the needle situation for this storm to head northeast or phase strong. But there is a way. 

Edited by MDBlueRidge

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Only slightly improved.  Does that High over Ontario moving faster cause some ridging behind it?

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh120_trend.gif.98bf8f8d9cad0cae6532fe6a860b65d9.gif

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Euro is very flat at 144

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Posted (edited)

Not gonna do it - high is weaker, low is weaker.   Precip maps when available

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh144_trend.gif

Edited by StretchCT

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really different HP positioning and strength on this run. Something to look out for as we marching along. 

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