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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Solstice

A joint album with the Ohio Valley | Great Lakes region has been created. Link is below.

Message added by Solstice

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Been a while since I last made a long-range thread. But this time period looks promising in terms of flow. Let's take a stab at it, shall we? If it doesn't pan out, there's always March :classic_laugh:.

 

BSR 500mb. I like where that flow is positioned. Right off the coast, maybe a tad too close to land, but hey these aren't specifics. Just the flow.

Spoiler

1947633744_Webp.net-gifmaker(5).gif.6a5ade289907b9cba45ef1e148d7360a.gif

 

BSR surface. Quite a mess to be honest, but look at the amount of storms there. I guess the energy is there to work with the flow :classic_laugh:.

Spoiler

1293925696_Webp.net-gifmaker(4).gif.c5cf139a0bdef8a92cd963dd4777be11.gif

 

GFS and FV3-GFS. 300+ hours out so obviously this doesn't matter one bit. Just included for those who like maps.

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png.112a24d8ef0616f12b78f097c5d32da5.png1336009382_fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64(1).png.328287407c910587677944a76040aa21.png

 

GFS EAR. I like that storm moving out from Japan. Interesting storm trailing it too. Note the tropical system down there too - will be something to watch.

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh78-126.thumb.gif.2a9f57860aa74c09b38a5be7bbf3fbb5.gif

 

GEM EAR. Pretty much same comment as the previous one repeated.

Spoiler

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh132-156.thumb.gif.671f569b8d71070c4846133db45b49af.gif

 

GFS northern hemisphere. Note the various small waves across East Asia compared to the flat flow earlier. Will be interesting to watch the chaos it evokes on modeling.

Spoiler

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_fh-72-120.thumb.gif.334618a263cae51a4ebb1f339c4d7897.gif

 

 

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Good one here @Solstice.

This is exactly the other time frame I have been observing.

This one may be a classic one.

Just watch this one because it´s really worth the time and effort.

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Lots of energy pushing through East Asia...

gfs_z500_vort_ea_fh60-180.thumb.gif.5cc0ae8444396091b2a1d3b99634057b.gif

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6AD20A0D-317C-4050-8EC2-01B2A401FE61.gif

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Posted (edited)

Had to dig to find this thread 

FV3 showing Life 

image.png.374be3755f788fdfaee5b87b3e37ef88.png

So is the regular GFS

image.png.f925fb2cfa8f76dcbbdabd15fe8a1ed0.png

CMC as well

image.png.651d9915d0e26dcd6c3c9448749ba03e.png

Edited by shaulov4

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Though far out I would like to mention that the solution is getting colder...

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This interested me

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

But translates to this.

ecmwfued---conus-240-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.d8d1dddfc217e334f5355f301abce7fe.png

 

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Not much of note on the 18z GFS, granted it is an 18z run. And not even a 0z/12z run would matter at this range...

EAR looks "okay," no big storm but still a lot of energy moving through that region right now.

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Euro is tantalizing

f240.thumb.gif.6c5ce0a930a148a1680a6a03ce002c84.gif

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Just looked at my weather channel app extended forecast and this period looks juicy .. I added up to 18” for SEPA between all the 3-5 and 1-3’s lol 😂 I hope it verifies! 

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12z euro Northeast  850 temp and precip

ecmwfued---usne-240-C-mslp850tmppcp10wind.thumb.png.a2c76a5efbc63a1a1dd34f1681954ab4.png

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To keep this thread updated...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

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Things of note:

Monster storm in the Pacific forms a gyre as it moves NNE.

Spoiler

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_3.thumb.png.53b9da4f02aaf2444e687ab41a1e0161.png

 

Small western ridge develops, but gets flushed out by a small storm in the Pacific. We'll see how that really affects it.

Spoiler

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_19.thumb.png.f436b2c14154e3381fca007e940b098a.png

 

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58 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

To keep this thread updated...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

Oh my.  Too bad it's so far out.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Oh my.  Too bad it's so far out.

Yeah shame it's 250+ hours out lol

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CMC looking beautiful! What a monster. Even though its long range, glad to finally start seeing the potential.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh210-240.gif.86080b05cbb9cb9fa8c0926a55d4d7e7.gif

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CMC is a beast ... this is only up to a certain point in the storm .. in this image .. the low pressure is only in South Carolina and intensifies as it moves northeastward 

4520352F-453F-4E54-8F1B-ABF3CBCC5728.png

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EPS control

ecmwfa1ec---usmercator-246-C-mslpthkpcpk6_whitecounty.thumb.png.f8def9d686c97d1872995dab9b55d476.png

Edited by StretchCT

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Euro op at 240 v eps control

ecmwfa1ec---usmercator-240-C-mslpthkpcpk6_whitecounty.thumb.png.817dad2a7fb3910258213700c7223ebd.png

ecmwfued---usmercator-240-C-mslpthkpcpk6_whitecounty.thumb.png.1b05369e8411e41290a5138954ca2460.png

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EPS mean - anything can happen

us_ecmwf_mean_mslp_f246.thumb.png.a0c8d0b7c3c6baa09d3991f490c5731e.png

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