Yes and no, I'm going to refer the Cumberland gap as the "big bend" the low isn't forecasted to transfer energy, its going to be elongated and use the trough as a treadmill to pump moisture up, as the low get out of the apps into a better environment for development it will strengthen, it cant eject straight into the atlantic and there's no HP to push it down or slow it down so it will curve NE.
The "big bend" is the actual argument here, when does it start turning on a more NE trajectory and that's all timing, timing with the arctic front in Canada, if the quasi banana hp breaks down in the US, if the trough go neutral.
Im starting to think the trouble here is the baroclinic zone or the perception of it, are we looking at the colder side of the cold (central NY state on up north) or are we looking at the existing cold and the warmth of the atlantic gulf stream (which is showing warmth relative to temp not to far from the coast) thus dragging the storm more eastward before the "big bend" takes place. or is going to be a little of this and a little of that.
I'm just having a hard time digesting a fire hose of moisture coming from the gulf and a low pressure sucking it up and wanting to move along a more northern trajectory (theres nothing to the north to phase or be attracted to); the warmth from the gulf and the existing cold temps along Tennessee and the Virginia's then into the waters of the atlantic should create enough contrast in thermal gradient that the system slides through this area.
My first thought was it was just adjusting to where it should be, as the eastern most solution.
Closer look showed that its ideas were in line with the other models. Note the GFS is the northernmost model when comparing these, NAVGEM southernmost.
When the system tries to move forward from here, the NAVGEM maintains a LP emerging off ACY as does the Euro/NAM and probably UKMET (using NAM in Spoiler). NAVGEM is a little faster, which is to be expected. GFS, not compared here, is just to the NW of the NAM.
The odd thing is that the NAVGEM holds back some energy and takes it through the Carolinas. Not sure why its doing that, but its the only one doing so. That's the low you see at hr 96 making it look like its out of whack. Meanwhile the original low heads to the BM, where it should be in its place as most eastern with the other models, but ends up an open wave.
The NAVGEM also keeps the 850mb low south of LI (look at circulation for the exact location), thus the 850 line is further south.
Lots going on a very hard to keep up but I am asking all to stay on topic or lose your posting abilities. There is no room for anything other than the thread topic, please refrain from any other discussion in this thread
On a serious note, and I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1.5" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready.
To do so I suggest
Fill up you gas tanks.
Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks
Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze.
If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze)
If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills).
Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days.
Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication.
Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone.
Have warm clothes handy.
This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety.
No joke. Read above and take note for your safety
Very important preparedness advice for the ice storm.
So here's the thing, and I mean this for education purposes. Convection and snowfall ratess work to keep the column cool when the storm is exploding and winding up tight. The problem is this is not the case here. What is happening here is that the atmospheric column is cold. This cold is meeting with warm air being pumped out of the south. Where this meets is referred to as the temperature gradient or baroclynic zone. It is termed this because the meeting of the two air masses is what causes the baroclynicity which allows for the storm to strengthen. Consequently, warm air is forced up and over the cold air, thus producing snow.
Now, if this system were to interact with the polar vortex or Northern stream, it would lead to a phase and the corealis effevt would take over. This means the spin would increase and the cold air would be brought to towarda the storm and the CCB would win out. However, in this case, no CCB develops. Instead this is essentially a warm front. So all that happens is the warm air is forced over the top of the cold air and as the mid levels flood with warm air, your precip begins to change to sleet and zr. In other words, the precip acts to warm the column instead of cooling it. Think of how snow melts and thus cools the column because it absorbs the heat, thus a net loss of temperature. In the same way, the surrounding atmosphere absorbs the heat being filtered in from the top and thus there is a net gain of temp.
The only way to avoid mixed precip is to be far enough away from the storm that it does not heat enough of a layer to change the snow to other precip. Likewise remember the HP is pumping in cold air, so if the warm layer is thin and high enough, the fresh cold can absorb the heat release and maintain the precip as snow. Furthermore, this battle. Is what will allow such prolific snowfall rates and amounts.
On another serious note.
There is going to be a good bit of wind later. Frozen trees and powerlines are now loaded with ice and are in a position to snap and/or fall. With that being said, the danger associated with these are going to significantly increase over the next few hours. To help avoid danger to yourself and family :
Leave all downed powerlines alone and treat them as live. I know this sounds like common sense but too many people think either it instantly shuts off when it falls or you can see electrical arcing if it is live. The truth is that electricity is usually not able to be seen.
If a power line is on a tree: stay away from that tree, the tree is now the path to ground and you can be electricuted just walking around it if the power line is live.
If you can move your vehicles out of the way of tree branches, I would consider that at this time.
Be prepared to lose power during brutal cold. I would keep the heat on a higher setting in the house and work to not open doors if power is lost.
Boil water and sip it if you lose power (do not burn yourself). This can help keep you warmer.
Take a warm to hot shower if you lose power and begin to feel excessively cold. A car to warm up also works.
Uncontrollable shivering is one of the first signs of hypothermia. If this happens, sit in a car to warm up or run warm (not hot) over your body and gradually increase the temperature.
Ensure your tail pipe is clear and you are not in an enclosed space when turning on and running your vehicle.
If you have a gas stove, this can be used to heat the surrounding area. Open the stove and turn it on high. It will act like a wood burning stove to a degree (of course do the same if you have one of these).
Please remain aware of yourself and signs of hypothermia. Below is a link with more information.
Remain safe out there. We all want to see you back on this board for years to come.