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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Solstice

A joint album with the Ohio Valley | Great Lakes region has been created. Link is below.

Message added by Solstice

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Not worried here in the snow capital. 

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2 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

On a serious note, and I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1.5" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready. 

To do so I suggest 

Fill up you gas tanks. 

Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks

Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze. 

If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze) 

If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills). 

Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days. 

Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication. 

Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone. 

Have warm clothes handy. 

This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety. 

Page topper. 

No joke. Read above and take note for your safety 

Best page topper post!!!

I as well as others have been saying for the past 2 days that this has potential to be one of the most devastating winter storms our area has seen in some time.  Everyone must be prepared.  Sooner the better.

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Even this much would be major trouble in our rural zones - maybe widespread even. Consider the backside gradient winds - UGH

Capture.thumb.PNG.cd43dd0840d64c3e9d2b5abb2b343910.PNG

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10 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

On a serious note, and I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1.5" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready. 

To do so I suggest 

Fill up you gas tanks. 

Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks

Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze. 

If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze) 

If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty minÔĽŅ. Continue this cycle as neÔĽŅcessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills).¬†

Be prepared to not be abÔĽŅle to travel for several days.¬†

Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication. 

Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone. 

Have warm clothes handy. 

This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety. 

Page topper. 

No joke. Read above and take note for your safety 

Thank you for that! I really appreciate, echoing the biggest concern I have had since5 days ago.

You have always been one of my favorite tropical cyclone season posters, and now you are voice of reason.

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10 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

On a serious note, and I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1.5" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready. 

To do so I suggest 

Fill up you gas tanks. 

Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks

Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze. 

If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze) 

If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills). 

Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days. 

Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication. 

Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone. 

Have warm clothes handy. 

This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety. 

Page topper. 

No joke. Read above and take note for your safety 

Just to add, from from someone in law enforcement, please stay off the roads until they can be plowed and made safe!!!  I'm getting too old to be trying to push two wheel drive cars out of snowbanks so the plows can do their jobs!!!

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1 minute ago, NJ Snowman said:

Just to add, from from someone in law enforcement, please stay off the roads until they can be plowed and made safe!!!  I'm getting too old to be trying to push two wheel drive cars out of snowbanks so the plows can do their jobs!!!

Be safe out there. 

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I wonder how much of a nowcasting event this will be. If something unexpected happens in the storm formation, or the warm nose does not push up as far north as expected, significant changes could occur. Unlikely, but the marginal "value" of a change is quite large.

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8 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Even this much would be major trouble in our rural zones - maybe widespread even. Consider the backside gradient winds - UGH

Capture.thumb.PNG.cd43dd0840d64c3e9d2b5abb2b343910.PNG

and Mount Holly's ice map.......

StormTotalIceFcst.png

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2repko.jpg

Lots o bickering, we can't control this shit :Lightning:

Edited by Doctor_Hobo
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We have a gas syphon  pump for our generator. After Sandy we went and got camping lanterns and keep fresh batteries on hand. 

 

 

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I may be alone here, but I just don't understand all of the anxiety and animosity in here the past couple of days. I think that THIS is my favorite part of the storm...just watching it unfold and seeing where it goes and how it impacts those areas. To me it's like a puzzle game....only with the correct education and wisdom you can make a really educated guess as to the solution of the puzzle.

I strongly suspect that I get shafted on this sucker (purely a guess because this thing is confusing the hell out of me) but I could hardly care less. It's been fun watching it unfold and I know that someone is going to get walloped with snow. Whoever you are, enjoy it for all of us - and stay safe out there!

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1 minute ago, Phillyfan said:

and Mount Holly's ice map.......

StormTotalIceFcst.png

If things continue the way they are much longer, without change, then I would expect some of those colors to change and not in a good way.

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3 minutes ago, Phillyfan said:

and Mount Holly's ice map.......

StormTotalIceFcst.png

Not surprising from Mount Holly. They seem to like to low-ball and increase as the storm is happening to get it right. In this instance their instinct and scepticism might very well be right.

Edited by Doctor_Hobo

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2 minutes ago, Solstice said:

I wonder how much of a nowcasting event this will be. If something unexpected happens in the storm formation, or the warm nose does not push up as far north as expected, significant changes could occur. Unlikely, but the marginal "value" of a change is quite large.

You are right.

Great nowcasting practice coming up.

If the warm nose is not as pronounced, that would mean less ice and much more sleet and snow. So areas forecasted and prepared for 10 inches, could be looking at 15, 18 inches or so, for instance.

That also could be dangerous.

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1 minute ago, Hail_On_Me said:

If things continue the way they are much longer, without change, then I would expect some of those colors to change and not in a good way.

What makes you say that?  I am in the orange section in NJ in the map.  More ice?  Sorry, just catching up on posts and this caught my eye.  

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Thinking it has a good chance of right to the wire and/or nowcasting...

All quotes from NWS ALB discussion today :

A major winter storm will impact the region Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon, but specific precipitation types/impacts remain uncertain at this time. 

It is important to keep in mind that we are still 60 to 84 hours out in the model world from this event, so changes will still likely occur.

As for snow amounts, given our time range they remain uncertain.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

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image.thumb.png.25c45c6d969daf7817f62aa8b602e0ec.png

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Not sure if anyone posted this already, but Winter Storm Watches are up in OKX CWA. Think it's my and @PlanetMaster's first WSWatch.

482415149_Screenshot2019-01-17at6_53_41PM.png.4c0d6479b927584fcd2fce6eac91c138.png

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
Quote

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult at any point
  during the storm. Rapidly falling temperatures Sunday afternoon
  into the evening could cause any standing water to quickly
  freeze over. Strong wind gusts Sunday afternoon into the night
  could bring down tree limbs and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

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5 minutes ago, Greenjacket said:

What makes you say that?  I am in the orange section in NJ in the map.  More ice?  Sorry, just catching up on posts and this caught my eye.  

Those numbers seem to be below most guidance right now.  As stated, they seem to be low balling the ice outlook currently.  If guidance stays the same, the will be forced to raise their totals.

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I followed the old accuweather forums for about a decade and all the JB & HM videos before that back in the early 2000s.  I know there are differences with the models, but they seem to be way more accurate than they used to be.  I know there are fluctuations but most of the models have generally had the snow in the same spot for days.  Sort of takes some of the fun out of it because I cannot rely on the models swinging wildly back and forth to show me some eye candy IMBY.  I remember back then, one run would be OTS and the next would cut up west of I95.

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3 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

image.thumb.png.25c45c6d969daf7817f62aa8b602e0ec.png

Model? 

Man,why is everyone so mad at each other in here? 

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9 minutes ago, Doctor_Hobo said:

Not surprising from Mount Holly. They seem to like to low-ball and increase as the storm is happening to get it right. In this instance their instinct and scepticism might very well be right.

Mt. Holly had me in the 2-4 inch zone for the November 15th storm until 6 inches had already fallen and the changeover to rain never came... They are as conservative as it gets with their forecasts. 

 

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Just now, MDBlueRidge said:

Model? 

Man,why is everyone so mad at each other in here? 

IIRC RPM is TWC product, in house I believe. Deep T based? Not sure

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4 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Model? 

Man,why is everyone so mad at each other in here? 

rpm model. nailed jan 2016

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